Hi everyone

I wasn't really sure how to play this hand.

I obviously don't mind getting stacks in versus SB (effective stacks 10bb) whereas I don't really want to tangle with BB (effective stacks 15bb) right ?

I couldn't decide between:

1)Shove
2)Standard raise. Call if SB shoves but fold if BB shoves.

SB had just lost his big chip lead to BB. Both were quite unpredictable and very active (read fishy) and unlikely that they understand ICM.

SB was running at 37/27 and BB at 39/14

Minraise and shrugfold if BB shoves on you.

r/c imo...never folding AQ 3 handed to players with those stats. Even BB could be shoving wider than you think.

I would shove over r/c. Think BB is more inclined to make a mistake calling too-wide. And he might not even be reshipping light.

with those stats

about stats:
- are they specific for bubble situations? (3 players)
- whats the sample size?

I think it depends on reads and how you're perceived. If you're min-raising a lot, then I min-raise here for balance. If you're shoving a lot (which it sounds like you're not), I do the same. I do think that if you're min-raising in this spot it should be your intent to call a steal from BB, even though it's a gross ICM spot. AQo is about as good as it gets three-handed, and he could easily shove over your min-raise with 55-JJ, and just about any weaker ace. If you get called by QQ+ or AK, it's a cooler.

Same here

Stats are overall stats sample size about 100 hands. Not huge, but enough to get an idea of VPIP / PFR

Both were button clicking recreational players, trying on occasions to LAG it up.

SB had just lost his big chip lead to BB a few hands before this one.

Enough to get an idea: true.
But if its overall... ur missing out tons of info about specific bubble situations. A 60/4 fish can almost tighten up (scared money) to a 4/4 rock on the button and a 4/4 nit (mostly regggish) can really kick it up 3handed.

Would advise u to set ur HUD to specific situations (HUD Options, Additional HUD Filters) giving way more info here.

OT: I'd minr/f if BB shoves, obv minr/c if SB shoves if i have a significant edge on villains.

(though I think a minr/c on BB isn't awfull as well, if BB doesn't shove wider 33+,A3s+,A7o+,KTs+,KQo for an ICM ok spot)

minraise

do stuff

Minraise and hopefully steal the blinds

Thanks guys.

Results in spoiler

Meh... depending on ur image I would think 99 would have been boarderline from his point of view. Haven't looked, but I think it would be ok for him to call if you shove any {pp, A5+, KJs, KQo} or so...