So, I am trying to learn how to play STTs (doing ok, but obviously have some things to work on). I have read through Moshman's book, and am trying to implement what is in there.

When I played this hand I was quite certain it could not be a big mistake to push, but according to the ICM calculator (using default values) in PT 4, I lose about 5% equity by pushing here vs. folding. Am I using the calculator right? As in, should I do some adjustments to the default settings, etc.?

Hand history below. CO had VPIP of 39 and PFR of 22.

I thank you for all advice!

Seems like the easiest shove of your life to me.

Actually depends both on opening range and calling range of the CO. Just run some calculations with different ranges for opening and calling of CO. You will see that there are some spots where you just have a marginal +eq.

PS: The -5% eq you mentioned is your eq using nash ranges but you cant apply those ranges to micros in most cases (as seen in your case, he is calling you with A5o)

ICM calcs aside, we have to shove here for metagame purposes. think of how exploitable we are if we fold that massively against min-opens on bubble. I know the name of the ICM game is that the leader should be able to abuse us but only to a certain extent.

Yeah, of course it's sth different if CO is doing this the 3rd time in an row or so

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Flat ainec

In the heat of battle I'm pretty sure I shove here. Im unsure if this is ever not a shove, despite the shorties.

After some analysis..... ignore my above thoughts, this is very villain dependant. Our shove range sometimes includes AKs, but can be much narrower. So without any degree of certainty on villain's ranges, and it being so finely balanced anyway, the shove may be the worst option.

Shove and fold can both be huge mistakes depending on set of ranges (pretty spot to practice 9m bubbles with calls, spot is huge), while flatting (given reasonable postflop skills) is certainly better than folding. It's not trivial to calc, but getting >3:1 with AKs vs rnd is hard to be bad. So w/o good reads, flatting is opt.
Most villains gonna Bluff a ton in that spot obv, so you can check/get-it-in on lots of Axx Kxx boards etc and c/c lots of draws, while u have an easy c/f on bad flops.

Thank you all for answering.

Seems like folding is the worst here, while flatting might be a good option (last to act, good odds, will still have a reasonable stack left if no A or K comes on the flop, reduces variance).

How should I approach this in-game? Obviously can't run the ICM calculations. Am I supposed to just get a feel/intuitive understanding for these kinds of spots?

Interesting spot OP, thanks for posting. I don't think I ever flat this 11bb deep. There's just too many flops you have to check fold. As already said, you have to know your villain as to which is correct between shove and fold. In game, I shove for 2 reasons. Meta game and fold equity. I really don't want a call even if you dominate. Now seeing spoiler, if villain calls with that hand, make a note and fold next time!!

I regard this as an easy shove. Villains stats are loose and hes the big stack so hes liable to be opening some raggy hands at this stage. With 12bbs this is a good spot to hopefully double up and shoving ensures you see all five cards. You should be trying to win the sit n go.

This is not how you should approach this situation

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Thats how I would play this but Im open to correction. On the basis of the information available to op why would you advocate flatting or folding pre specifically?

Just read the Posts above, depending on ranges of the CO, shoving can be -ev. Im not saying it is in this spot but you have to take a closer look. Do some simulations to find out in which situations shoving is optimal. Flatting is also an option because if you hit Axx or Kxx you could double up easily, if CO is a weak player.

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Thanks I read the previous posts before I posted myself. Op hasnt mentioned how many hands the 39/22 is over but theres a huge player pool at this level and consequently very limited information about most opponents. If this is the first time playing against villain its difficult to devise accurate opening and calling ranges from the co 4 handed. As a default I wouldnt fold AK as its ahead of a reasonable opening range,villain can definitely call a shove with plenty of worse hands and theres a lot of value in taking down the pot pre when your this short.
As I said Im not sure thats necessarily correct but it makes sense to me.I take your point about the merits of flatting particularly given how short the SB and BTN are.

It's actually quite simple:

1) Compare jam vs fold

U could do an immediate jam vs fold calc if u knew his 2x/f and 2x/c ranges. Including future hands - adapt by using fgs. FGS implies future Nash ranges. Reasonable assumption: Villains are deviating more from these than hero, especially in spots like these where cEV hugely differs from $EV.

Conclusion: Heros jamming range is tighter than FGS with known ranges.

Next Problem: Ranges are unknown

Simulate if different sets of ranges lead to different results of jam/fold.

Result: They do

Conclusion: It's unclear whether jamming or folding is better.


2) Compare folding to flatting

Getting better than 3:1 with AKs against a wide range of a supposedly bad player. Having an easy fold and still comfortably 2nd stack after c/f on bad flops. Getting lots of value on Axx/Kxx boards, maybe getting to draw for cheap/free on decent amount of flops and checking down for high card value also occasionally possible. I can't proof it, but I reasonably assume this is more profitable than folding and it also reduces variance in relation to jamming.

Flat > Fold ~?¿~ Jam

Sure, jamming or folding might later turn out to be incorrect based on new information, but to say that we don't currently know whether jamming > folding and should thus flat is quite flawed. Based on the expected ranges of villain we can always determine whether folding or jamming is better.

FWIW, I agree with flatting here, especially since we can expect villain to not exploit ICM considerations too much postflop.

You make it look like we can deduce an accurate range for villain or at least one where every realistic deviation still shows one to be better than the other.

Now I myself havent checked the spot and my 9man ICM is rusty, but if all I have on a guy are pretty wild stats over a short sample and the knowledge that he has a huge stack, Im nowhere near as confident as you putting this guy on a range.

Hence my approach here would be to test out different sets of ranges which are within reason for such a player. I believe this is what Leaks did and why he says that both folding and shoving can be good.

Now if there was a clear solution to this problem, no one would suggest calling. But its not the case here. It appears to be a rather close case, with potential for quite big mistakes.

Calling, isnt as easily calculated and has way more margin of error as far as ranges and actions go. But its fair to assume that even with only a simple fit or fold strategy, its going to beat folding by a lot. Since we cant say that about shoving with anywhere near the same amount of certainty... calling appears to be the vastly superior action.

So either Leaks just made mistakes calculating (I doubt it, the guy is an ICM Monster) or you know something I dont. If its the later, please enlighten me, if its the former, shame on Leaks.

FWIW I didn't put any ranges, just remember from similar spots I studied that it's huge for several %pp, thus worth practicing for anyone encountering 50/30/20 bubbles regularly.

"but to say that we don't currently know whether jamming > folding and should thus flat is quite flawed. Based on the expected ranges of villain we can always determine whether folding or jamming is better"

If u somehow got a reasonable estimation of those ranges (I don't) than sure, you can. This doesn't solve the question btw if flatting might still be better than shoving or not. And the real value obviously depends a lot on how well u play post and how bad villain does

Made some simulations a few days ago with FGS. fe with CO opening ~30% and calling ~18% shoving is -$ev

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