Originally Posted by IFoldPktOnes

This is so wrong I don't know where to begin. I mean, I could give tons of example hands and write out the details of the ICM calculations for raise-fold situations at 12 BBs to prove my point, but it doesn't seem worth it. There is so much dependence on sng wiz these days that the majority of STTFers seem to have no idea how to do even a simple ICM calculation by hand anyway. So I wouldn't want to bore you with the details of an ICM calculation for a raise-fold situation.

It's obvious that if you have 12 BBs you must shove a tighter range than if you were shoving 11 BBs, but what isn't as directly clear is that you may actually be able to 2.5x or 3x raise a wider range at 12 BBs that you would be able to shove at 11 BBs, this is because you have the option to raise-fold. However, if there is no opponent that you can correctly raise-fold vs at 12 BBs then it is unlikely you would be able profitably open-raise any wider than the range of hands that are profitable open-shoves for 12 BBs. Making a raise-fold is favored by ICM since you are avoiding an all-in confrontation, so if you are able to make a correct raise-fold you will tend to increase the equity of your hand compared to just shoving (assuming you aren't getting flat-called often).

As a simple example, lets say you have 12 BBs on the SB vs a nitty multi-tabling BB. Assume that if you 3x raise then BB will either shove or fold, but never flat-call. By raising you are risking 2.5 BBs, to gain 1.5 BBs, so for this play to be +chipEV you need BB to fold 2.5/(2.5+1.5) = 62.5 % of the time. Adding ICM into the equation will depend on the bubble factor, but in most reasonable situations you will still only need BB to fold 64%-66% of the time for this play to be profitable. So BB has to be re-shoving >34% of the time for your raise fold with 32o to be -EV. Now because we know BB is a nit, lets assume he will never flat-call vs a 2.5x raise either and repeat the calculations. This time your raise needs to work 2/(2+1.5) of the time to be +chipEV, factor in ICM we will need BB to fold something like 58%-60% of the time. So, the nitty reg in the BB who is playing 20+ tables has to shove over your 2.5x raise greater than 40% of the time to make your raise-fold with 32o -EV. Hmmmmmmm, interesting stuff...