Poker Stars $20.00+$0.80 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t40 - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Hero (SB): t1447 M = 1.72
BB: t1780 M = 2.12
UTG: t4815 M = 5.73
MP: t1290 M = 1.54
CO: t5112 M = 6.09
BTN: t556 M = 0.66

Pre Flop: (t840) Hero is SB with A A
2 folds, CO raises to t800, 1 fold, Hero ???

After this hand blinds will be 300/600, ante 60.

Ugh, we can't survive the blinds again and there is only one SS below us. If CO has NOT been doing this with every hand then I think it is an easy call because we should have him completely dominated. (Either pair, or Ax)

If there were 2 SS or greater I think it would be a fold and obviously if we were the only SS/low stack it's a call.

I think we shove. We may have enough fold equity for him not to call.

The odds of you winning the tournament with a call here are better than 50% if you shove here. Probably much much more than that if the CO is just trying to keep you and the other shortys honest.

The odds of you winning if you fold are pretty much impossible to calculate.

BTN is going to be all in or out of the tournament in 4 hands, what will he have when he shoves? What will everyone else have?

You also have another short stack who's about to be in an even worse position within 2 hands. Same questions, what will he have when he shoves, and what will everyone else have?

Lets go psychological rather than looking at the math here.
If you fold and lose the tournament how will that make you feel?
If you go all in with the best hand and get unlucky how will that make you feel?

Worst case scenario, i would rather have shoved and lost with AA. I'd have a much easier time holding my head high in that situation than than weakly folding your AA in hopes that someone else busts before you and having it not happen.

What? Have you ever seen such a big stack folding to a small raise?

There is only one SS, but it is VERY short, specially since blinds will be 300/600 next hand, which means that he will probably be in a 4-way all in. Also, MP might do something to try to avoid being crippled this orbit, so I think it is a fold. (Not that I would fold, especially if the big stack is doing this every hand, but...I think that's the right play.)

Yes. There's always a non-zero chance they'll fold, no matter what the situation (as long as the fold option is given to them obviously). It's obviously not likely at all, but it does happen.

AA vs. a pair (~80%) is worse than AA vs. ATC (~85%), and AA vs. any pair and any Ax is only ~86%, so you're not significantly better off if his range is like that compared to ATC.

If we just assume winning this hand means you win the game, which obviously isn't completely true but it simplifies things for my tiny brain, I think you need to shove here. Your chance to cash if you fold is essentially based on how many people limp in shorty's AI hand. You're obviously calling whenever he decides to go AI, whether that be in the next few hands or in his BB, and I would think we could definitely count on CO being in there as well since he appears to not be smart. But you would need to be able to definitely count on 4 people (including yourself) to call and check it down to give yourself roughly the same chance of cashing as shoving in this hand gives you. I guess if you really think enough people will do that then you can fold this, especially since losing shorty's AI hand won't necessarily lose you the tournament. But I just don't know if you can realistically count on everyone to do that, so I shove.

I don't even understand folding this with 3.5 BBs.

It's a Double or Nothing, completely different from normal SNGs.

Reluctant fold. Either way you're in a decent position here.

Without any reads I'd guess MP will fold through the blinds hoping that shorty will be taken out when the blinds hit him. But then some big-stack idiot pushes all-in, everyone else folds, shorty wins and through an improbable chain of events you bust in 6th, wondering what the hell just happened.

I would call if CO is braindead and might mess up a cooperation play against BTN. Otherwise I'd probably fold and hope BTN gets taken out in a multi-way pot.

I've been in BBV all day, and it's your first post so I should go easy, but this is just horrible. You cant exactly calculate your odds of winning after a fold, but you can roughly do it, and must if youre gonna play DONs. Our odds of winning after we fold have to be at least 80% since both MP and button are gonna be forced in before we are. Doubling through CO here would make it more likely well cash, but not enough to overcome the fact that were risking our entire tournament if we lose.

The second thing you said that I bolded is a horrible mindset. You should be playing in a way that maximizes your chance to win, not in a way that is most macho.

I know you're new so sorry for being a jerk. Hopefully it wont scare you off from posting more.

Cliff notes. Easy fold since blinds are going up to 300 600 next hand which will make MP set to bust before us.

No, we will blind out before MP. Still it might be a fold becasue of BTN but it's not an easy decision.


In theory I absolutely agree with you. However, when a decision is close it will often be correct to play in a way that will least affect your future playing. If, say, OP folds the Aces, eventually loses the tournament and goes on some form of tilt because of that while he would have braved a suck-out then I'd advocate a call.

another math question post.. i guess someone really need to come out and do some talking..

phasE89,

Some regulars or even winning regulars of DoNs will tell you to fold but i am telling you.. only the really good regulars will tell you to call with yr Aces.

There are many factors to consider when playing and winning DoNs.. Winning Double or nothing sngs in the long run is not only about Math alone.

I hope you will understand my answer to yr question.

My God, finally.. i broke my promise and helped someone today..

XYtexas

So why didn't you do it?

You will blind out before MP if you both fold every hands.

I still fold this because MP will be very short (170 otb?) if he decided to wait for you to blind out. Then you may get a walk on your blinds because MP is so short and you still have like 800 chips on your BB.

Lets group all the fold AA questions into one neat little thread....... and then throw it into an incinerator . ; )