situation: first blind level of a $20 6 max turbo sng. i've got 126 hands on villian. he's playing vpip: 37, pfr: 29 fold to 3 bet: 71 (5/7). he's been quite aggressive post flop as well. he always opens for 2x.


i'd like to know how you would have played each street here, but i'm especially interested in the river. what do you think his range is when he bets there and should this just be a call?


888 Poker - 10/20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 75 BB (VPIP: 25.40, PFR: 21.45, 3Bet Preflop: 9.93, Hands: 2,496)
UTG: 66 BB (VPIP: 48.54, PFR: 21.99, 3Bet Preflop: 11.67, Hands: 211)
MP: 80.5 BB (VPIP: 37.44, PFR: 27.62, 3Bet Preflop: 6.15, Hands: 234)
CO: 74.5 BB (VPIP: 22.00, PFR: 4.71, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 103)
Hero (BTN): 73.5 BB
SB: 80.5 BB (VPIP: 24.53, PFR: 17.31, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 53)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 5 BB

Flop: (15.5 BB, 2 players) 4 Q 6
MP bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

Turn: (29.5 BB, 2 players) 6
MP bets 15 BB, Hero calls 15 BB

River: (59.5 BB, 2 players) 5
MP bets 22 BB, Hero raises to 44.5 BB and is all-in, MP calls 22.5 BB

MP shows 5 5 (Full House, Fives full of Sixes)
(Pre 54%, Flop 14%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows A Q (Two Pair, Queens and Sixes)
(Pre 46%, Flop 86%, Turn 95%)
MP wins 148.5 BB

The shove on the river was weird, this is a spot to just call. The board now has 3 cards to a straight on it, and wetter than it was on previous streets so this wasn't a good time to raise. Other than that there really isn't much you can do, you have top pair top kicker. V decided to donk lead each street to you out of position, so just call. V's flop and turn bets were roughly half pot, but the river bet was 1/3 pot, something you must take note of, and seeing his holdings you now understand how 'inviting' his river bet was.

As played, call, call, (consider what V is betting each street with) call. This looks like QJsuited to me, trying to take control of the pot and get to showdown on his terms, unfortunately V took a weird line with 55 and got there. Not much you can do, but never raising this river.

also, curious as to why you raised the river. as played, what did you put V on?

here was my line of thought:

villian raised and called a 3 bet oop. i didn't have a lot of hands on him at the time, but he had folded to 5/7 times he was 3 bet, which led me to believe he's not calling his entire opening range.

the flop came down as dry as a bone, but he donked it. why? at this point i was thinking that his most likely holding was a mid pair, which fit the preflop and post flop action. i didn't want to scare him off if that was indeed his hand, plus i was pretty sure i was ahead of pretty much any hand that would donk that flop, so i decided to just call and try to get more money out of him later in the hand.

the turn was a dud. i don't think there are any sixes in his 3 bet calling range, aside from 66 which made a set on the flop and quads on the turn, but why would he donk a set on the flop with that board? when he leads out again, i'm still pretty sure he's on something like 77-tt and thinks that's a good turn card for him. there are definitely some qs in his calling range too, but why donk the flop with them? the board wasn't drawy at all. i still felt like i was ahead here and wanted the chance to get more money on the river, so i called again.

when the 5 hit the river, i was thinking that was a good card. i hadn't shown any strength by raising yet in the hand, so if he thinks i'm on ak, he'd still think his hand was good. but, then 2 big questions arise: would he still bet the river, or be cautious and check call, giving me the chance to bluff my missed hands? would he make a large bet (as he did) or a smaller suck bet? a player as aggressive as him might bet, but as large as he did with an under pair to the q? that gave me pause. i considered calling here, but couldn't come up with a hand that was beating me as the hand was played. one of the main considerations was whether he would call off the rest of his chips with a hand i was beating if i shoved. with the size of the bet he made, i think he pot committed himself. that's why i shoved.

I see, yea I was thinking you are never getting called by worse but if hes comitted himself than a river raise makes sense.

Don't like the shove, talk of pot commitment is just wrong I think. After you go call/call/shove on a board with no draws you obviously have like the nuts in this spot. He should really be folding KQ if he has that, you literally can't have anything that he beats.

It's a weird spot because excluding total bluffs he can't really have a hand that makes sense. He can have KQs that for some reason called preflop and led flop. He can have sets and 65s and 87s and such. It's all pretty fringe stuff.

Whoa ChrisV in STTF sighting!

Against an opponent like this and playing as you have I think there is plenty of value to be gained by raising an earlier street. TPTK is the nuts here. Favorable enough board texture and loose enough player that you aren't likely to lose value against weaker made hands by putting lots of money in early (QT-QK, 77-TT type hands are certainly in his range). As played I agree river raise is a poor option.

Yeah I haven't played poker for 3 years and I just deposited on Stars and started playing low stakes SNGs, basically just for kicks while watching sport etc. Should I get HM or PT? Want a HUD that gives relevant information (i.e. stats that are relevant to the blind level we're playing).

Call

Hey man. I lurk SE and P and Im a big fan of your posting.

Ive used HEM (now HEM2) for nearly a decade. It lets you filter for stack size in BB, as well as number of players left. I assume the current iteration of PT allows for the same. There are also now vs hero stats. So instead knowing what pct of time a player 3bets from BB, you can see how often he 3bets from BB vs your open.

It def stat overload in the beginning, and the more you filter stats the lower your sample gets and the less accurate they become. But as you learn how much credence to give each stat, these can become really useful.

Shoot me a PM if you go with HEM and need any help setting up. Im spending most of Nov in the states and will have a bunch of spare time.

Thanks! OK I'll probably just go with HEM, it's what I used most recently. I had a license for it but I don't think it's valid anymore.

I think a raise on flop or turn for value is the best play here if he has Qj or KQ even Q10 you see donk leads alot with draws or medium pairs to control the pot size if you just have overs like Ak . The raise should have been on flop or turn.

Villain plays his hand so bad, but then if he vpip's 37 it's fish town.
I like a small flop raise, it charges his whole range and likely only folds out air, how much air can he really have, and how aggressive can we expect him to be with it ott & beyond, I don't see we lose value.
As played I hate the river raise, his line is confusing but the river bet will easilly be the stronger out of all of the bets as he has no need to protect now, so it's either pure value or pure bluff, and a bluff doesn't make any sense, I mean on such a dry board what can he think you are going to go 3b/c/c/ then fold v a 3rd pot bet?

For what it's worth i think most of the hands you are targeting with your raise will x/c river anyway and so likely aren't even in his betting range to start with.

Call>raise

...BUT its closer than people here are making it sound.
One reason for this is because you put the spoiler and everyone knows he had a boat.

His value hands that beat you are 56s, 67s, 66, 33, 55...believe it or not thats just 10combos.

His value hands that you beat are weeker Qx...its hard to know exactly what off suit combos he has...but even if its just KQo and then QJs and Q10s...thats still more than the 10combos that crush you.

I think he will not fold any Q on river after playing like this...so i do believe its a +chipEV river jam....but the problem is that those last 22bbs you put in the pot are basically youre last...so i wouldnt take this thin spot...id unhappily just call, because when im beat i want to have a chance of winning this sng.

Raising flop is also good vs him.

well when he calls oop he is representing a low/medium pair or suited hands, i think preflop the play is okey.

On the flop when he donks ( i think is a bad play for him) im gonna raise %65 of the time and raise %35.

On the turn, im DEFINITELY raising, what happen if a T , 10 , 9 , 8 ,7 came in the river and he make the set, or a king idk.

Your hand is good, but you dont have even double pair.

And in the river i just call, the only hand are going to call your raise all in are better ones.

JUst my point of view good luck bro.