18man, 88 shove vs 3bet behind my open raise - STT Poker Strategy

felgastell · 05-24-2012, 08:06 PM

Poker Stars, $3.16 Buy-in (100/200 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12972712

Hero (MP1): 3,295 (16.5 bb)
MP2: 2,235 (11.2 bb)
MP3: 571 (2.9 bb)
CO: 4,787 (23.9 bb)
BTN: 4,805 (24 bb)
SB: 1,980 (9.9 bb)
BB: 2,800 (14 bb)
UTG+2: 4,644 (23.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8

8

UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to 450, 4 folds, SB raises to 1,980 and is all-in, BB folds, Hero calls 1,530

Flop: (4,160) 5

J

A

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (4,160) 9

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (4,160) 9

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

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i had not much history of this player, just that i had won a hand before this one against him. his stats were 13/13, 16.7 3bet, 24 hands.

i think that id call 99 for sure, but i dunno 88

downswing4ever · 05-25-2012, 04:44 PM

Defo priced in to call here with 88, calling 1530 into 4160, only need 37% to call

Trex8063 · 05-25-2012, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by downswing4ever

Defo priced in to call here with 88, calling 1530 into 4160, only need 37% to call

Picking nits, but it's calling 1530 into 2630, actually. Not sure where you got 4160 (edit: oh I see, you added 2630 and 1530

). But the ~37% is correct. And I agree you're probably priced in to call; figure his stack size is probably shoving something like ATs/AJs+, AJo+, 55/66+ or something similar. Even if tighter like 77+, AJs+, AQo+, you've got >40%.

Didn't run an ICM, but I suspect it more or less comes out in the wash this far from the bubble. Lose and you're critical, but not yet dead (not even shortest at the table); win and it's down to 7, and you've the chip lead. So I'd be willing to just play considering only equity vs. pot odds.

downswing4ever · 05-26-2012, 04:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trex8063

Picking nits, but it's calling 1530 into 2630, actually. Not sure where you got 4160 (edit: oh I see, you added 2630 and 1530

). But the ~37% is correct. And I agree you're probably priced in to call; figure his stack size is probably shoving something like ATs/AJs+, AJo+, 55/66+ or something similar. Even if tighter like 77+, AJs+, AQo+, you've got >40%.

Didn't run an ICM, but I suspect it more or less comes out in the wash this far from the bubble. Lose and you're critical, but not yet dead (not even shortest at the table); win and it's down to 7, and you've the chip lead. So I'd be willing to just play considering only equity vs. pot odds.

Yes meant the total pot would be 4160 so odds are 1530/4160