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Old 02-02-2012, 08:55 AM   #1
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15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    Poker Stars, $13.70 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players

    BB: 935 (31.2 bb)
    MP1: 1,395 (46.5 bb)
    MP2: 2,311 (77 bb)
    MP3: 2,552 (85.1 bb)
    CO: 3,595 (119.8 bb)
    BTN: 1,525 (50.8 bb)
    Hero (SB): 1,187 (39.6 bb)

    hey!
    villain runs 16/11 ~100hands
    turn could be a bit bigger.
    what are your thoughts on the river? what hands causes this action?

    thx daniel

    Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 7
    MP1 folds, MP2 raises to 75, 3 folds, Hero calls 60, BB folds

    Flop: (180) 4 Q 5 (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP2 checks

    Turn: (180) 7 (2 players)
    Hero bets 90, MP2 calls 90

    River: (360) 9 (2 players)
    Hero bets 180, MP2 raises to 420, Hero?




    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
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    Old 02-02-2012, 09:01 AM   #2
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    bad luck.. would put him on AQ or overpair there
    no chance to get away from that
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    Old 02-02-2012, 09:11 AM   #3
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Zamomin View Post
    bad luck.. would put him on AQ or overpair there
    no chance to get away from that
    hmmm, i combine villains action not with AQ, KK+ very often.
    my betsize on turn/river want a call from a middle pair
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    Old 02-02-2012, 11:49 AM   #4
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    Your turn lead looks weak here.
    he could interpret the turn lead rather weak and hope to get some value
    On the river with two pair. I dont expect villain to ever show qq kk AA here
    As he's likely to cbet this flop, so I guess that leaves his range with some goofy mid strength queens and small 2pairs
    And sometimes the old 68 haha
    I'm shoving the river 9/10 times and if he shows up with better nothing you can do imo
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    Old 02-02-2012, 11:53 AM   #5
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lolcmonphish View Post
    Your turn lead looks weak here.
    he could interpret the turn lead rather weak and hope to get some value
    On the river with two pair. I dont expect villain to ever show qq kk AA here
    As he's likely to cbet this flop, so I guess that leaves his range with some goofy mid strength queens and small 2pairs
    And sometimes the old 68 haha
    I'm shoving the river 9/10 times and if he shows up with better nothing you can do imo
    wanted to ask you what 2pair you have in his opening range and then i saw your 68, then you should shove 10/10 i guess.
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    Old 02-02-2012, 11:53 AM   #6
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    hhhmmm - I agree, it doens't look much like an AQ / KK+, unless he is trying to get tricky.

    Most people don't bluf raise the river ... I don't see why a hand like 9's would check behind on that flop. 44 / 55 maybe would check behind on the flop, as it looks like you have nothing and the board isn't very drawy.

    His line looks most like a monster, maybe top set? but that is such a narrow range that I don't think I could lay down 3rd set even to a river raise.
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    Old 02-02-2012, 01:48 PM   #7
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Harlow_Hammer View Post
    His line looks most like a monster, maybe top set? but that is such a narrow range that I don't think I could lay down 3rd set even to a river raise.
    so u agree his line looks much like a monster... but would not consider AQ or overpair? its so much more likely than higher set.
    many dudes play tricky like that
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    Old 02-02-2012, 01:56 PM   #8
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    44/55/QQ////maybee kk/AA are the only hands he can credibly rep on this board. he really shoudnt be doing this w/ AQ. im still calling tho.
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    Old 02-02-2012, 02:30 PM   #9
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SkinnyStax View Post
    44/55/QQ////maybee kk/AA are the only hands he can credibly rep on this board. he really shoudnt be doing this w/ AQ. im still calling tho.
    maybe opening range is more like AJ+/77+ ???
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    Old 02-02-2012, 02:49 PM   #10
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    yea 44/55 are def villain dependent.
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    Old 02-02-2012, 03:48 PM   #11
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by danjo_os View Post
    wanted to ask you what 2pair you have in his opening range and then i saw your 68, then you should shove 10/10 i guess.
    its just so hard for him to show up with a hand here, he usually can semibluff str8 draws.
    To me it seems his range is polarized between 2pr hands and top pair decent kickers,
    If he binks set of 9s on river ship the chips and on to the next one.
    Interested to know what villain has here, def a noteworthy situation that doesn't come too often.
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    Old 02-02-2012, 04:28 PM   #12
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    villain never has 68
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    Old 02-02-2012, 04:38 PM   #13
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SkinnyStax View Post
    villain never has 68
    give a good reason plz
    ya people NEVER raise suited connectors in late position like 68 never ever ever
    Ya ok Dude lol.
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    Old 02-02-2012, 05:58 PM   #14
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    Villain is not in late position. He's 2nd to act. Got to agree with Skinny, if he's 16/11 he has 86s like .1% of the time maaaybe.

    I would bet more on the turn. The way the hand is played it's like villain is repping QQ or 99, or he totally slowplayed AA,KK. Not sure if he'd raise 44 or 55 pre. I'd probably just call the river. His raise looks like he wants you to call.
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    Old 02-02-2012, 06:11 PM   #15
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    Re: 15$ reg L2 my set get raised on the river

    I think his range is exlusively 44/55/QQ/AA. Some small percent of AQ I guess, but really very rarely imo

    Just call river, villain folds one pair to our shove and it's fairly likely 44/55 aren't in his PF range so we just own ourselves. Honestly he probably has QQQ a ****LOAD, but whadya gonna do.

    Any more info on the table? These 16/10 guys normally aren't big on raising small pairs, just limp or fold. Things like him having a stack or everyone behind being tight may have a factor on him opening 44/55 tho
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