15$:18man - overpair OOP on a flush flop, how to play it? - STT Poker Strategy

lamb · 05-29-2012, 03:45 PM

Hello,

had this spot and I do not know how to play it right. Guy is random (18 hands with 33/17).

Poker Stars, $13.89 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG+2: 1,245 (41.5 bb)
MP1: 1,415 (47.2 bb)
Hero (MP2): 1,470 (49 bb)
MP3: 1,500 (50 bb)
CO: 1,710 (57 bb)
BTN: 1,336 (44.5 bb)
SB: 1,300 (43.3 bb)
BB: 2,454 (81.8 bb)
UTG+1: 1,070 (35.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K

K

3 folds, Hero raises to 75, 2 folds, BTN calls 75, SB folds, BB calls 45

Flop: (240) 4

8

T

(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 250, BTN raises to 500, BB folds, Hero cries and raises to 1,395 and is all-in, BTN calls 761 and is all-in

Turn: (2,762) 9

(2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (2,762) 3

(2 players, 2 are all-in)

So what do you think?

felgastell · 05-29-2012, 04:30 PM

i think, that id the same imo, he flopped FD 1 of 100 times, wp for me..

DeuceThreeFlush · 05-30-2012, 06:42 AM

fold pre

MichaelScarn · 05-30-2012, 07:06 AM

I wouldn't be as worried about the FD as I would the set. That min-raise is the ultimate sign of strength as well...
Early on, I have to say I would fold to that min raise.

n0bigdeal · 06-01-2012, 04:33 PM

The nastiest part of this spot is that this guy always always has good equity against your hand. Based on the fact you have him tagged as a random, I think you have to roll the dice here and get your chips in. He's just too likely to turn up worse.

Instinctively I have him more likely on a pair+ace high flush draw. People tend to flat back made flushes on flops. The only flush scenario I could see is if he took a flop with 5c6c or another weak flush.

cneuy3 · 06-01-2012, 10:38 PM

I'm not sure over betting the flop is the best play. It sort of tells the villains you are committing yourself to the hand and it might be over-repping our hand strength a bit.

These type of boards are usually pretty rough when you get raised.

@MichaelScarn - I wouldn't worry so much about HERO facing a set after this min raise. If the villain has a set he doesn't have a flush draw and therefore I think he'd be more likely to raise bigger and try and protect his hand in this spot.

I'd say the majority of his range is made flushes or pair+flush draw combos.

Since he is more of the fishy variety we have to include the spaz factor and give him the occasional pair+no draw where he is betting to see where he at and take the initiative in the pot.

Given that you made such a large sizing on the flop though I'd say it is less likely for him to be spazzing in this spot.

SkinnyStax · 06-02-2012, 12:19 AM

ffs more pre. less otf, get it in vs randos, fold vs anyone who doesnt have autism. like you can see Tx, AcX here a ton and a few other draws.

TomoDaK · 06-02-2012, 02:42 AM

80-90 pre, ur on a tight range with assumedly few randoms behind

Betting flop like that is just losing value by forcing out hands.

I fold the flop. You overbet an all club board and he minraises with a guy behind? I'd say you're pretty ****ed here vs most people's range