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04-21-2015 , 07:38 PM
Villain is 11/11 over 79 hands. Probably reg but not many reads.


    Poker Stars, $1.32 Buy-in (80/160 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #36071211

    Hero (BB): 1,640 (10.3 bb)
    MP: 736 (4.6 bb)
    CO: 6,642 (41.5 bb)
    BTN: 1,465 (9.2 bb)
    SB: 3,017 (18.9 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 A
    3 folds, SB raises to 2,997 and is all-in, Hero ?




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    04-21-2015 , 08:33 PM
    Here's my reasoning; let's see if it's any good:

    SB could have a pair but it's more likely she has high cards, because high cards significantly outnumber pairs. And even if she does have a pair, you'll still win 45% of the time vs. 22-77, and let's assume that against monsters you wouldn't be facing an all-in from a bigger stack under no pressure.

    The only high card hands you really fear are aces down to 9. But if we assume SB will push with K-9,Q-9, and J-9 as well, then you'll only be facing a higher ace a third of the time. Against this range your equity should also be about 45%, and if we can assume SB will also push with some lower aces and K-,Q-,J-small, then your equity climbs.

    So I run all these assumptions through equilab, from the pairs to the high-cards, and it gives you 47% equity. Since the pot is offering you 1.2:1, you only need 45% equity in order to break even.

    So the result of all my reasoning is that it's a pretty close decision, which you probably knew anyway. If you think my assumptions are good, perhaps call; if you don't, then perhaps fold. Remember that you're not under too much pressure to act just yet, and you'll be able to push on the smaller stacks next orbit if you survive this one.
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    04-22-2015 , 08:34 AM
    He seems pretty tight, but I would still expect most regs to jam at least top 30%. Do u have sb steal stats? In general if your not calling here your not defending wide enough.
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    04-22-2015 , 10:58 AM
    +1 colin, look at steal stats and if it is >20% then he is pretty positionally aware and I would call. If his ranges are pretty flat between diff positions then he is prob nit and fold. Also you can look at how he doubled up and maybe that helps us. Without any more info I guess I fold.
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    04-22-2015 , 08:49 PM
    Thanks guys. steal is 43%(3/7). It's definitely a close decision and I lean towards folding without more reads. Also thanks for the tip Regret$, Looking previously big hands of villain is something that can help a lot.
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    04-22-2015 , 09:51 PM
    snap callllll all day
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    04-24-2015 , 07:35 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Regret$
    snap callllll all day
    I get how 43% is high but does it really change from marginal fold to snap call all day in such a small sample size ? :P

    I am not saying you are wrong obviously, I just thought in 79 hands a stat like steal % can't be trusted much.
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    04-24-2015 , 08:42 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Colinb7
    He seems pretty tight, but I would still expect most regs to jam at least top 30%. Do u have sb steal stats? In general if your not calling here your not defending wide enough.
    10bb bvb
    ante
    He has twice your chips

    I think most guys who have a clue push much wider than 30%.
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    04-24-2015 , 05:11 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mtgalex
    I think most guys who have a clue push much wider than 30%.
    Ya, but

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Phter
      Poker Stars, $1.32 Buy-in (80/160 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament



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      04-25-2015 , 11:23 AM
      Pretty obvious you're not facing a monster. Second stack doing what he should be doing and bullying. I personally wouldn't call, you're ok for 1 or maybe 2 more passes. I always want to be pushing not calling against bigger stacks unless I'm running on vapours.
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