Blinds had recently raised, so next level in only 4mins or so.

What should HERO do?

Im calling here, but then again I dont play DON's.
Im calling cos, if the SSer doubles up, you are the next target.

yeah i think we hav to call this cause the blinds will hit us before the other two short stacks

Would you call even considering that UTG has been raising/calling every move made by the shorties?

Cause I would survive an orbit and the other shorties will be faced with a desperate shove before me.. And UTG would call them, making me in a bad position only if both shorties double up.

It's close, but it looks like a fold to me. BB and current BTN are both forced all-in before you are.

BTN is almost certain to be against at least 2 opponents on his all-in as well. If we give BB 1 in 2 on his all-in and BTN 1 in 3, the odds of them both doubling through are 1 in 6. Even then, you're not out of it. And it's also distinctly possible they'll clash, which would leave you in even better shape.

Edit: And on top of all that, if BB folds this hand, he's going to be against 3 on his all-in as well.

I think I was wrong describing it as close, actually.

In my 10-seconds-reasoning, that was how I saw the picture.

In the end, I folded and BTN shoved with ATo. Deep stack had K9o and won with a pair of 9.

DoN won.

It's a disgusting spot(surprised stuff like this comes up at the 1.10s), but it looks like a fold. If you call you make BB and BTN so happy and they instafold, while they might call with a marginal hand if you fold, feeling desperate.
Basicly when two shorterstacks go all in in one of the next 6 hands on the bubble, like we have overhere, and you don't, only AA is good to go all in.

I had some time on my hands an made an ICM calculation since Iam not very good at it and I can allways use the practice, anyone just tell me if something is off:

if you dont know what ICM is have a look here or use the search:
http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/sitand..._to%20ICM.html

To calculate the equity I used this calculator:
http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx

So lets get started with calculating the current equity we have, I have set his range to opening 50% of his hands but included a calculation for 100% shoving range as well.

Current equity

8670t ICM equity 0,19988 x 10$ = $2.00
1985t ICM equity 0,19101 x 10$ = $1.91
885t ICM equity 0,16021 x 10$ = $1.60
445t ICM equity 0,10329 x 10$ = $1.03
2230t ICM equity 0,19308 x 10$ = $1.93
785t ICM equity 0,15252 x 10$ = $1.53

if you win your stack will be:
240t ante + 600t blinds + 885t for win + 885t stack = 2610t

7785t ICM equity 0,19982 x 10$ = $2.00
1985t ICM equity 0,19216 x 10$ = $1.92
2610t ICM equity 0,19575 x 10$ = $1.96
445t ICM equity 0,11696 x 10$ = $1.17
2030t ICM equity 0,19253 x 10$ = $1.93
385t ICM equity 0,10277 x 10$ = $1.02

if you lose you have 0% chance on cashing.

So if you win, you'll win:
1.96$-1.60$=0.36$

if you lose, you'll lose:
1.60$

1ste range, opening 50% of his hands:
KK [79%]
33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o [21%]

You are going to win about 79% of the times you get it in so:
0.36$ x 79% = 0.28$

the other 21% we lose and we are knocked out (ive ignored splitpot to keep math simple):
1.60$ x 21% = 0.34$

2nd range, opening 100% of his hands:
KK [82%]
random [18%]

You are going to win about 82% of the times you get it in so:
0.36$ x 82% = 0.30$

the other 18% we lose and we are knocked out (ive ignored splitpot to keep math simple):
1.60$ x 18% = 0.29$

So on ICM calculations you are winning 0.01$ when you call against this range.

Based on the above calculations you'd say its a fold however ICM calculations dont have a way to interpret skill, fold equity and so on. So I would basicly say its a somewhat neutral/marginal call and if the big stack has been rather tight you probably should fold. Also include the fact that the blinds pass which ICM doesnt do and its probably a fold I guess.... pretty hard.

I aprreciate your time for that, man. Thanks a lot.

I imagined it was a pretty hard decision. So hard that I thought it was worth registering and starting to become a regular here in 2+2.

Thanks a lot again.

No problem. Welcome, good luck and I hope you enjoy it

With 3 stacks with an M of 1 or under (OK, 1.05), ICM isn't worth using.

I wasnt totally aware off that however I was just using it to show the calculation that goes on. This was a classic "Iam short and the big guy shoves on me in the bubble of a DoN and I find a monster now do I call or what coz there is another two shorties in play" I figured it was worth just as some sort of a side guideline. Thanks however for pointing that out.

Why do you say that? Would you mind explaining your reasoning for that?

I think he means that an M that small would mean the blinds would eat the stacks anyway and thats something ICM doesnt consider. It considers this hand in a vacuum without looking at the next hand or the previous one.

That ^^^

ICM doesn't take blinds or position into account. So, for extreme example, if there are two shortstacks with exactly 1BB left, it will give them both exactly the same equity where in reality, the player that's nearest the BB has much less equity.

The smaller the M value, the more this inaccuracy matters. Informally, I've seen M=3 quoted as the point it starts to get really unreliable. You could probably shave a little off that for DONs, but it's still going to be very common that you shouldn't be using pure ICM on the bubble.