do it




now

See you at showdown

Indeed.

What's your flop check-raising range?

He is representing KQ or maybe QQ, but he could have Kx, a flush draw, or some rags like 8 2 or Q 8. He could also have AQ and be putting you on a draw. I wouldn't fold, but I expect you are beat here at least half the time unless the villain is known to be very aggressive.

There are so many new draws on the turn.

This is quite relevant. If this flop check raising range is very tight, then the opponent should have a tight turn raising range in response; a fold may be in order on the turn. If this flop check raising range is very loose, then the opponent should have a loose turn raising range in response; a 3 bet may be in order on the turn. If you have the Goldie Locks of flop check raising ranges, then I think a calldown is in order.

top pair,middle pair(including x8), some flush draws with overs to the 8

While this is theoretically what should happen, I think it's a gigantic flaw in poker logic to assume that your opponent plays correctly against your ranges. I'm never folding this against an unknown, no matter what my check-raising frequency is. Similarly, I'm never 3-betting this against an unknown, no matter what my check-raising frequency is.

In order for your conclusion to be correct, you need to make two unwarranted assumptions:

1) Your opponent actually knows your check-raising frequency
2) Your opponent actually knows how to adjust

Maybe at higher stakes you can start to think that way, but here it's the mistake of playing too much inside your own head and not enough with the player that you're actually against.

I think this is a 100% calldown with top pair until further information suggests otherwise. And that information needs to come from what I see my opponent do, not what I think I'm doing.

If I'm just spitballing numbers, I'd expect folding to be right for less than 20% of players. And I'd expect 3-betting to be right for less than 10% of players. And I think I'm being very generous on both counts.

+1

I'm never folding this against unknown.

I also think that you should sometimes check-raise this flop with backdoor straight + backdoor flush draw type of hands (or you can bluff raise with random air some predetermined percentage of the time). Otherwise, you won't have any bluffs in your check-raise range on spade turn/river.