Snark away, mon frer, but is that what we've got? A showdown hand? Is an ABC TAG really taking this line with 99?

(I honestly don't see how Equilab is coming up with 23% equity for Hero on the river. I need to check that result.)

Edit: oh, and don't give me the, "You show down because he might be getting out of line," bull****. He's either an ABC player or he isn't.

I'm glad I posted this hand because this is the argument I was pretty much having myself while I tanked.

Ok, well let's see:

We call and 23% of the time we win 11 bets and 77% of the time we lose 1, EV(call) = (.23 * 11) + (.77 * -1) = 1.76BB

Now, how often does he need to fold to make raising better (overall)? EV(raise) =
(X * 11) + ((1 - X) * -2) = 1.76
11X - 2 + 2X = 1.76
13X = 3.76
X = 3.76/13 = .29

If he folds 29% of the time overall to the raise, we break even with calling, so if he folds 30% of the time we win by raising. We KNOW he's folding 23% (99, and if he doesn't that actually makes our EV better), so he only needs to fold an additional 7% of the time to make raising a win. He's holding JJ 12% of the time so if he only folds JJ half the time, we're almost there, and that's going to be scared of the queen as well as the flush.

QED raise/fold wins, imo.

To clarify, I am talking about call v fold...I never even considered raising but Boz's comments have me intrigued.

I have a very hard time believing that call v. fold was a question for you.

You then have to come up with the idea that the villain actually folds better. You need two things to happen, him to have better and then to fold it. Come up with a range of hands better than ours he folds often enough for it to be profitable. When we have a horrible hand, it is easier because every hand he folds is better than ours. Your scenario needs to start with ranges, and then work through the hand.

It was a question to me in the sense that I felt that there was nothing left in his range that I beat so I was wondering if I could find a fold even with the pot size being what it was. I don't think he would have 3! 99 on flop and don't think he would have 3! any of his AK's except for with the FD which just got there.

So yeah....I gave folding some serious consideration. I just couldn't do it in the end. The raise is interesting but I don't know that he folds anything I am ahead of because if he is paying attention (which i think a 24/18 does) he has to know I am capable of doing something like that and should look me up.

If you're raise-bluffing rivers, who are you doing it against if not thinking 24/18 types? Aren't those the only ones that ever fold?

I think the river raise is an interesting thought here, but i'd prefer to do it with something like 99 for card removal reasons.

I take it you saw my EV calc? That, of course, presumes 99 is still in his range, but we have to presume that to make calling correct (if 99 isn't in his range, then our equity is 0).

Even if calling ISN'T correct (his range is TT+/AhKh), raising is better than folding. Our break-even EV is:

(X * -2) + ((1-X) * 11) = 0
-2X + 11 - 11X = 0
13X = 11
X = 11/13 = .85

So, we need him to fold just over 15% of his hands. 20 combos in his range, he still only needs to fold JJ a bit more than half the time to make raising correct.

About half the time JJ has a J high flush for the 4th nuts. Same with 99 having the 5th nut hand nearly half the time.

He has 28 combos. KK+, JJ-TT, QdQs, QdQc, QsQc, AhKh. If he folds JJ combos without the J, he folds 3 combos or about 10% of the time.

You're also assuming he only has one combo of big suited hearts.

---

BTW, you assume I think calling is correct. It may not be, but I'm not certain. I never said it was a profitable call. The issue is about having so much SD value that better hands that bet never fold. The case for calling revolves around our villain spite-barreling worse and checking back some value hands. If the villain were any good, he wouldn't bet JJ on the river because it has some SD value. That impacts your calcs. You're looking at his entire range (a narrow one) and saying he bets it all. He should become more polarized on the river as he decides not to make thin value bets on what has become a terrifying board. That may remove AA, KK, and JJ without from his range. The issue is our medium strength hand has to convince better hands that bet to fold, which may be a losing proposition.

What if every hand that beats us that we hope to fold out checks back the river? It could be that TT and JT are the same hand here, as he never bets worse than a flush. We could have the same discussion.

There are only 3 hearts on the board, so JJ/99 do not have flushes.

He only has 26 combos if you include 99 because we're holding one of the jacks. Without 99 he only has 20. And, again, JJ is now afraid of the queen as well as the flush so I'd not be surprised if this type of player doesn't fold it 100% to a river c/r.

Edit: read your edit, will respond momentarily.

I saw the as red. 4 color deck guy. Still, yeah, you'd go broke in a modern game bluffing people off > 2nd pair on the river. The 4 flush I was wrong about is the reason that the non-flush JJ hands fold. Without a 4 flush or a 4 str8, he's just not folding JJ.

The ten and queen are both on the board. What combos do you expect him to be 3-betting preflop from UTG+1 (yeah, it's 6-max, but still)?

I agree with all this if we're talking about 2 different Villans, but I don't see the same guy treying AhKh on the flop and checking back AA/KK just because a 3-flush hit on the river, and I expect him to bet at least SOME of his JJ. I agree that 99 is probably out, but all that does is reduce the question to fold or raise.

This is the, "What if he's getting out of line?" discussion I mentioned earlier. What if he does that? Maybe he thinks we're a maniac and included all pocket-pairs and all aces in his preflop 3! range with the plan of pounding us into folding? Since ant identified him as a "reg" I assume he would have told us if he gets weak-tight on the river; he did tell us he plays ABC; and he gave us the Villan's TAGgy preflop stats.

Oh, and fwiw if you take 99 out of his range on the flop the turn call is awfully thin.

You're arguing against my post after pointing out that I incorrectly saw a 4 flush.

You're entirely ignoring the fact that modern 6m players don't fold JJ on a Q high board. Ignore my post, where I mis-read the board. We're firmly at the point where the villain needs to fold better. He needs to have it and he needs to fold it.

They certainly don't if you don't give them a chance to.