Originally Posted by lawdude
Frankly, CO is the hand I'm worried more about here-- I think I'm actually behind most and maybe all of his range. (For instance, I doubt he raises a hand like AJ or QJ pre-flop. I think he limps it.) He could have a hand like TT, JJ, or KK, he could be slowplaying QQ, and he could have AK. I can't see him having much else.
Gotcha...I've seen these guys. Most of them don't raise QQ-, either, but I agree that might slide a little given his position.
The question on the turn then becomes what are the chances of getting CO to fold his UI AK? As long as it's non-zero, you should b/f. You're putting in the same number of bets no matter what (even if you knew he bet 99 on the turn, you're not folding), and you're giving yourself more options on the river.
And, since I brought up the river, this is exactly the problem we were worried about. If you just pulled ahead of him and you bet he's folding (there's now nothing in your preflop capping range he's ahead of). Similarly, if you check he plays his hand perfectly because you can't fold a possible chop.
So, get in your time machine, b/f the turn, and induce a bluff on the river. What? You don't have a time machine? Curse yourself and check the river, then punch yourself in the nuts when CO checks behind and tables JJ.