Here is the dilemma as I see it. This guy is loose passive (my read from your description). Against this guy I want to B/F because he will check back anything we beat and bet anything we are behind. He is prone to calling down so we can get calls out of JJ and TT and maybe even AJ.

The problem is that I don't see him betting these hands when you checked to him on the turn so they really shouldn't be in his range. I think C/F would be a disaster so I am going to c/c and hate myself for not betting the turn.

I think this strengthens the argument for B/F turn because he would have raised you with his Q's on the turn and you would have saved a bet when behind and extracted the max when ahead.

Probably b/f against a passive villain, no? Against some villains, I'd be more inclined to b/c, though. Not sure where this guy lies in the passive-aggro spectrum, if he's passive enough to comfortably b/f.

You understand that you WANT them to think your range is something like JJ+, right?

Do you think the CO could still have Ax hands in his range after he calls the flop? Some rough calcs show that even hands like A9s can profitably call the turn, even though Hero obviously profits more when they call with worse Ax hands. Point is that whether they call or fold weaker Ax, betting is better than checking. When you c/c, the bet doesn't go in well unless they turn their Ax hands into bluffs.

I don't believe CO can ever have an unimproved ace that I beat. He'd limp AJ or AT.

I want it when i have 98s, not when i have JJ+
Anyway i thought 20/40 games is about "play the player" not ranges...

Perplexed:

While psychology has its place in live (and online) poker, I assure you that the best players in mid-stakes live games are definitely thinking about ranges and the proper play against them and are not simply trying to "outplay" other players. Indeed, it is often (though not always) the fish who are convinced that they can soul read opponents and play the player.

Perplexed:

Do you really only cap that tight of a range? Something you might need to look at in your game to get better.

Well if he's really that passive, I like c/c more.

my problems with checking the turn are two. 1) we hit the best possible river card without a plan on what to do (aka what's the point of calling the turn if we don't know how to capitalize on the river). 2) villains will play nearly perfectly and we'll play worse than if we bet.

Betting the turn is not going to get better hands to fold so let's not even talk about it. but it does get us to the river (which we need to see) while enabling us up to make a b/f in a protected pot (although I don't think b/f is ldo) and allows our river play to be very clear when we hit (our range is still as wide as it can be given we pf capped, maxing our value vs the sd part of villains range's).

I'm thinking we have a lot of incentive to bet the river if CO's got 24 combos of 88-JJ in his range. I hesitate because the pot is big and I worry a little about a spazz-out raise based on Villain's idea that, say, JJ is a great hand and it seemed to be good on the turn and CO fails to recognize how that might have changed and meanwhile he finds Hero's sudden river bet annoying. But it's also not hard to imagine a fish who will never raise even an annoying river donkbet if he can't beat AK, and I suspect there's a good chance Villain fits that description. (But I've never played live 20/40 and I don't know how the passive fish in that game tend to play, so I am speculating.)

If the fact that he bet the turn 3-way means he hardly ever has a mere 88-JJ, then I guess I probably just check/crying-call the river since we have so little to gain from a bet. But I would be surprised if that were the case. (And if CO's turn bet was so strong that it meant 77, Qx, KK, or AA, why did we even bother calling it?) It seems to me that even a passive player could find a turn bet with 88-JJ on a hard-to-hit Q73Q board versus two opponents who have both shown weakness (Hero didn't bet the turn; Button didn't raise the flop).

Anyway, I'm leaning toward a river b/f.

BTW, it just occurred to me that if CO might bet AK when checked to on the turn, then that possibility alone could make a river b/f too risky. I'm thinking that there are 11 combos of monsters in his range (AQ, 77, QQ, and KK), and even if we discount AK all the way down to 2 combos based on the turn bet & river raise, that still makes a b/f too risky if AQ, 77, QQ, KK, and AK are the only hands he would play this way.

Basically, if AK is still in CO's range on the river and if there's a good chance he would get excited about his suddenly improved hand and raise in the face of a bet, then that makes our river decision very awkward.

Meanwhile, if CO can't have AK anymore after he bets the turn 3-way, then to me it's starting to look like our turn call was a small mistake. (Versus a range of AQ and 77+, I'm getting 3.825 weighted outs, which at ~9:1 is not enough.)

Nevertheless, I'm not criticizing the turn call. A fold would be distasteful, and I figure there is probably some AK in CO's range and he'll often check that AK UI on the river.

i dont cap OOP at all. Only against agro morons.
Balancing too difficult for me so far.
it was lawdude who said he caps with AK to "dilute" AA,KK (he didnt said he caps with JJ+ by the way)

I don't worry about balance multiway. I play for value. If I think I have an edge in this spot then I'm capping. If not then I fold. If you're coldcalling here then you're letting the guys in position drive the action and you have to hit the flop to win. When you have the initiative on the flop because you capped, it puts the in position players in the bind instead of yourself. Initiative and hitting flops are your only weapons when out of position. Don't cut it down to just one weapon imo. Use all that are at your disposal. Plus you get value on your monsters preflop.

Maybe if the co hardly ever caps and the big blind is likely to come along then a case could be made for coldcalling pocket pairs, especially if you expect a lot of action postflop(people raising to protect middle pair, gutshots with an overcard, etc.)