Originally Posted by aldine07
Can anyone give me a specific example or examples of when relying on hot/cold equity can lead to incorrect conclusions? Thanks.
Originally Posted by BigBadBabar
well a hand like k2o has decent hot/cold equity pf vs say a btn steal, but its playability is so bad that it's often better just to muck it pf, even tho we'd defend say 87o which has worse hot/cold equity than the k2o but is easier to play
Think of it this way. The more likely the hands are to see showdown and the less money that goes in after things have changed, the more accurate a sim can be. If someone shoves AI in a NL hand, the sim is perfect. If you're in a very low limit game where no-one ever folds, the sim is pretty accurate. You'd have to do some EV calc because you get to make a new decision with each card. If you think about BBB's example, you're putting in 1SB getting 3:1 with K2. However, you're going to have to potentially putin in 2.5 BIG BETS and you may have to show down K-high to capture your full equity.
So, you look at things like
1) How likely are you (and they) to see showdown?
2) How much money is going in later?
3) Will there be difficult decisions later that skew your chances of realizing your full equity?
4) Are there opportinities for you to steal the pot later that make your equity higher than shown?
The more off these things are from idea, the less representative the hot/cold numbers are. Since tighter players tend to play big cards which might win unimproved in sims, I'd guess that most of us overestimate our equity.