+100000

nihan sir

I'm glad you mentioned that Poker Stove produces hot and cold equity numbers. While it is an extremely useful tool it is also critical to remember that relying too much on hot and cold equity in certain circumstances can lead an analysis to incorrect conclusions.

I used to play against you Origami at UB or FTP, can't remember for sure which one a couple years ago, but I remember I couldn't run over you. You were very good at showdown and picked off every bluff I pitched. You're a very wise savvy player...respect! A true 2P2 player, you have excellent concept of equity and on that subject, I suggest everyone listen hard to you when you speak Stove.

Quebob

Thanks for the kind words, QB.

thanks for the post, much appreciated.

great post my friend,

RESPECT!

still waiting for the Hebrew version...lol

Big thanks to you lanyi! Great post. I'm sure I'm not the only one who found it extremely useful.

Yesh Kavod?

I would have to be really bored to bother and put in the time to translate this just for the benefit of the yahoos in our little IL forum. This material would be lost on the majority of them and the few who would benefit are members of 2+2 anyway.

awesome thread indeed

My first practical experience with the Stove for me personally was in HeadsUP play. Wow did that J9 off suit start looking good LOL.

wtb (what the bump).

Also, forgot to mention after the first read... very nice post.

lanyi for mod

Can anyone give me a specific example or examples of when relying on hot/cold equity can lead to incorrect conclusions? Thanks.

aldine07

well a hand like k2o has decent hot/cold equity pf vs say a btn steal, but its playability is so bad that it's often better just to muck it pf, even tho we'd defend say 87o which has worse hot/cold equity than the k2o but is easier to play

Think of it this way. The more likely the hands are to see showdown and the less money that goes in after things have changed, the more accurate a sim can be. If someone shoves AI in a NL hand, the sim is perfect. If you're in a very low limit game where no-one ever folds, the sim is pretty accurate. You'd have to do some EV calc because you get to make a new decision with each card. If you think about BBB's example, you're putting in 1SB getting 3:1 with K2. However, you're going to have to potentially putin in 2.5 BIG BETS and you may have to show down K-high to capture your full equity.

So, you look at things like
1) How likely are you (and they) to see showdown?
2) How much money is going in later?
3) Will there be difficult decisions later that skew your chances of realizing your full equity?
4) Are there opportinities for you to steal the pot later that make your equity higher than shown?

The more off these things are from idea, the less representative the hot/cold numbers are. Since tighter players tend to play big cards which might win unimproved in sims, I'd guess that most of us overestimate our equity.