Villain is 29/26/52, overall 3-bet 12%, 3-bet from the BB versus steal 24%, WTSD 43%, fold to flop raise 18, C-bet 97/73/69 over 646 hands. Obviously we know each other. Unfortunately I lost all my notes on him when I transitioned to HM2 but I remember him as being a decent, somewhat straightforward player. Don't recall many occasions when I saw him do something unusual.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1/$2 Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13724212

Preflop: Hero is CO with K T
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls

He's 3-betting fairly wide here.

Flop: (6.5 SB) 3 6 J (2 players)
BB bets, Hero?

Semi-bluff or just call and hope to make my hand? I've got nearly 50% equity and there are Ax hands that may fold further down the line. However, perhaps my hand is too strong to be turning into a bluff - although it has zero SD value.

I think I am raising this flop and making decisions the rest of the way based on his reaction to it (and the turn card obv).

Getting 3!'d on the flop is not horrible for us.

If I read you right, 24% 3! to a steal is a wide range, but he's going to call you down with any A hi, pair, perhaps even King hi sometimes. You could, possibly consider calling the flop and raising the turn on any low non if you think he would only 3! a set or combo hand. That way you could gain value if you hit one of your cards on the river and check behind worse. If you just call and wait, then you'll probably be in the situation of calling down with K hi. Just a thought and if villain is very aggro, especially in these situations, then perhaps call down mode is better.

wow 24% 3bet with 43% SD????

i just cap pf and go to SD calling down and raising any K or flush along the way .

i disagree abit with u rook, imo Khigh vs this guy has SD value so u can raise flop imo, but i can see an easy calling down cause he barrel a lot

raising flop will not make BB fold,no1 folds flop HU against a raise after 3 bet pf & c bet flop

now u should ask urself will u make a bet on turn also if unimroved to make him fold ?

& if he calls will u cont. betting river on non ace board because u think u dont have a SD value & he may fold with his Ax ?

i think the best play here is raising flop not to get him fold but for value & to get a free river card once he check turn

by this u will invest 2 bb & can see river otherwise u may have to invest 3 bb as BB is likely to make cbet on turn

if villian 3 bet flop u should go in a call mode

That's the 3-bet versus steal number and I think it includes 3-bets against CO, BTN and SB open-raises. So it's a little misleading. I just tried filtering for the times he 3-bet from the BB versus a CO open-raise and there were only 10 samples so I can't say what the correct number is. Note that his overall 3-bet is just 12% .

I'd raise flop and take a free a card ui - betting turn again on a K, Q, T,

*g*

I'm probably raising here. If he's 3!ing wide here, the J may have hit, but I think you have a very strong draw, plus you have position to possibly take the free card. You know he's CBetting the flop almost 100% of the time. I'm unsure about playing the passive call station unless your peel vs value flop calling range has him in a tizzy.

Well he 3 bet, he has to c-bet no matter what he has OTF, riase the flop and fire all the way down, possibly check the river if unimproved and checked to you depends on your image, but im betting all the way down, if he bets into you on the turn he probably has a big hand or puts you on what your on a flush draw, and if you just call the turn he knows hes good, I might even raise OTT if he fires into me again, then he really has some decisions to make, thats when you have to factor in his SD%, will he fold or is he a calling station?

G*
I think you're closer to 55% equity. I think raising for value on the flop is fine.

I realize you've lost your notes, but I'd like to know if he's capable of folding Ahighs. That WTSD is pretty high, and if you raise this flop, he's probably not folding some hands if the flush bricks out given the dry nature of this flop. I think there is an argument for waiting to raise the turn and barreling the river hoping to get Ace high to fold.

IMO if you take a take a free card on the turn, if you get it (what if he bets into you again?) then you might as well just tell him your on a draw and turn your cards face up, because if a diamon/k dosent hit the river I think he bets knowing you were drawing.

With this guy's high barreling frequencies I'd be waiting for the turn with value hands and bluffs on this board, and just calling down with borderline bluffcatchers/value hands. To make this hand fit into that strategy I call the flop and raise most turns expecting a fold from some better hands. 43% showdown is pretty showdown bound, so I'll be getting a lot of value with my good hands. I hope he realizes this and tries to exploit me by folding bluffcatchers this time. If he calls or reraises it's not a disaster by any means. This seems like a great spot to start a leveling war, since it's a spot that I struggle with when I 3 bet from the big blind. If he calls and checks the river I check back unimproved. I think that he's unbalanced to calling the river when he calls the turn and I'll exploit that by not bluffing the river.

If he checks the turn after I call the flop then I take the free card.

*g*

Will he double barrel often? If so I think throwing in a semi-bluff raise on the turn is good. Otherwise I'd raise on the flop.

Looking at this again I'd also bet the turn again if we pick up gs outs - A, K, Q, T, 9, - I disagree that our hand is *that* face up that he can narrow us down to a K, but yes, if we take a free card we basically say we're drawing to something (flush, overs)- or we were bluffing

but that's the point of the free card play - we get value if we hit and we get to see a free card cheap if we believe there's a good chance we are behind to vill's range and they are have showdown bound tendencies - like in this case where he 3 bet pf and holds a lot of Ax hands in his range and wtsd = 43% .

Here's a math exercise for you: Suppose you're in position on a 5-handed flop and raise the flop OTB for a free card (with this hand and board). What's the value of the play? Compare that to doing the same thing HU.