BTN

• 37/27 over 30

SB

• 82/14 over 22
• donk river 2P HU
• fairly straightforward post-flop

UTG

• unknown, just sat down and terri-posted

I'm debating my spew open raise, but methinks it's right.

Flop: missed my chance on a value x/r.

Turn: Still good to draw; I go ??? on BTN's raise. I suspect some stupid donk slowplay after his PF 3! and then check. SB 3!, I've still got odds + implieds even if the pot gets capped and I put in 3 more BB (if BTN 4!).

River: Thoughts on my cap?


Merge - $1/$2 (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (CO): $115.08
BTN: $38.37
SB: $32.85
BB: $69.91
UTG: $93.74
MP: $85.84

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00, UTG posts DB $1.00

Pre Flop: ($2.50) Hero has 8 9

UTG checks, fold, Hero raises to $2.00, BTN raises to $3.00, SB calls $2.50, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.00

Flop: ($11.00, 3 players) 5 Q A
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($11.00, 3 players) J
SB bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00, BTN raises to $4.00, SB raises to $6.00, Hero calls $4.00, BTN calls $2.00

River: ($29.00, 3 players) 3
SB bets $2.00, Hero raises to $4.00, BTN raises to $6.00, SB calls $4.00, Hero raises to $8.00, BTN calls $2.00, SB calls $2.00

I'm ok w/ the opn rz.

As for the flop, that's a strange line. If someone's willing to take this line, I'm probably cautiously proceeding and taking a note. Anyway, btn possibly didn't bet the flop possibly fearing an xr (so maybe he has an under pp 88-JJ)?

Oh, and possibly a misclick on either the 3! pre or the xb on the flop.

Im ok with the rvr rz, but not the rvr cap. If capping we're thinking he 3! cold on the river with JJ or possibly a slowplay QQ or AA? I'm not sure on the combo's, so maybe someone can help, but that seems like a smaller portion of his river 3! range compared to straights or bigger flushes?

I like it except pf raise
Nh

I think I just call the river 3 bet. Rest is good.

Btn should have KTc or he can't hand read

i call the river 3-bet too.

after the turn action from btn goes raise/call, JcTc/KcJc seem more likely than KxTx or KcTc. btn with lag stats and KT isn't slowing down on the turn ime esp. since hero called the 3 bet. capping here isn't going to fold anyone out.

general concenus - I'm likely behind, and capping doesn't build any fold equity, so call, correct?

PFR is standard and fine. You might shade to showdown value, but this isn't the worst hand you'd raise unopened in the CO. I might be a little concerned about having an active button behind, but you should narrow his playable range. If he jams up a huge MW pot for you, you're not that likely dominated. In fact, you might fold out exactly his dominating hands and that's wonderful.

If you're thinking about fold equity on the river, you've missed it completely. You either have the best hand or you don't. No T high flush or better is ever folding online. I'm not sure you're enough of a favorite to put in the 4th bet. However, since it can't be raised, it can't be a disaster. Also, the fact that the flop checked through screws up all the hand values. I wouldn't be shocked to see a set and a straight still in their ranges -- specifically, I would not at all be surprised to see a horribly played AA show up here. I could see the SB having a straight. Still, either could have clubs and you block all the medium hands the BTN could have.

You've got the 4th nuts and 2 players who love their hands. I'd lean towards not 4 betting, but I'd listen to you argue that it is correct.

BTN's odd flop/turn line was really putting me towards this; I've seen dumb slowplays with it before; set or straight seems right for SB, especially given his flop/turn line. If the hand had played out more obviously, i.e. with a BTN cbet, then the river line would've been different... but too many things weren't adding up to give me reasons not to 4!.

as far as I can tell we have the 2nd nuts. SB cant have QT and BTN needs to have lost his mind with JT for us to lose.

I'm pretty sure there are enough combos of QT and AA to justify a cap. BTNs line makes no sense and we beat SB always.

I assume you mean KT and not QT. Nobody holds the Qc here as well.

BTN not betting the flop on a flush draw + broadway board doesn't seem likely to me with QQQ or AAA.

BTN line makes sense, at least to me, with these holdings: KcJc, JcTc - Esp. after the raise/call on the turn.
though I can't explain a bad missed flop bet with those two hands.

I'd further discount a BTN holding a set after the river 3-bet unless the BTN is a terribad hand reader and just doesn't notice the hero calling bets on the turn in the presence of a FD.

ya, KT

I think the turn raise with those hands is terribad enough to widen his range on the river.

you need to be ahead 33% for the river cap to be for value . . . not that I think its a big deal, but I think its correct to cap. if BTN is known to read hands I could be persuaded otherwise

What About J5 for the SB? Honestly his range could be any two suited, and if so he's saying his suit is the same as ours. I think putting him on only top connectors and one gaps is a mistake. Other than the J5s hand, it is pretty clear that both our villains played the hand horribly at some point. That kind of prevents accurate hand reading. I don't hate a 4 bet, but I don't think it is clear we have the 2nd nuts.

*G*

If BTN’s stats hold true I probably raise-call the river rather than cap.

IMO, when we raise SB it should be quite clear to BTN that we have hit a flush (this depends on our image (e.g. does BTN think we are likely to have binked 2 pair on the end or slow played a set) and his hand reading ability LDO). I would probably only cap the river if we either knew that BTN over plays straights and sets when flushes or better are possible or he was a maniac.

Jax

Since this is an actual strat thread from 2012, anyone want to argue more?

Nah. I think I've met my quota for crat (crap strat) for the year.

On the river, it should be apparent to most (mouth breathers included) that Breich hit a flush and not a set of 3s.

Piecing things together backwards when facing the river 3-bet, I think what hands 3-bet me here that go along with wild the turn action. I think it's important to note that BTN raise/called the turn. What hands give that kind of turn action after flop checks through.

If one of them has a flush, I doubt BTN 3-bet us preflop with 76 or worse. Any worse flush doesn't make a lot of sense for the turn action that was given.

SB appears to be getting the worst of it after bet/calling the river 3-bet.

We don't know enough about the BTN other than what seems to be ~normal preflop stats for 6m. I could be wrong to assume that BTN isn't bad. With that in mind, I am not sure if BTN has a set here because BTN raise/called the turn and then river 3-bet the guy that's clearly on the draw. That doesn't make a lot of sense for a set unless the BTN cannot read or has a propensity to light bets on fire.