So we give weak players and players who are behind a free draw at what is currently our pot? I think we should charge them to draw. And btw, I think you do too.

I do not agree that another reason to bet is needed. In limit poker you only get so many chances to "build" a pot. I very much like to use those chances when I am ahead and especially when I also have outs.

As a wise green elephant once said. "bet your damn hand"

How big is the pot? How many outs do these draws have?

The thing is, we draw to some of those draw as well so we should not be too afraid of many draws here.

Let just say his got a J and he would not have bet if we have check because he would of been afraid of a c/r, we charge ourself to draw.

Well yes but there is another factor in there:


exactly


You should bet thinner has the pot get bigger since you opponent will have to call more to prevent you from bluffing.

Here we should have plenty of hands in our range already to bet for value in this pot.
With middling hand strength, has the pot get smaller i think inducing bluff has more value imo.
Betting and paying 1 BB to protect a draw that is worth maybe .2-.5 BB is bad when you might get c/r and be force to fold the best hand.

You really need to put some hand ranges to this. Your numbers are making no sense to me at this point.

I think when you do, you'll see how few hands are actually in the range that can even bluff-raise, and you'll see that worrying about being bluff-raised is not the actual concern with this hand.

It depends on your assumptions. For some villains, check-folding will be right. And I think that's where you're getting at because you've created a coldcalling range that isn't too far from mine (it's probably a hair tighter than mine).

i put some big numbers to show how even vs a very good draw in small pot, the cost of betting exceed the cost of the draw we are trying to be protected from .
Lets say if we check and he bet has a bluff with a gutshot, he charge himself big time while if we bet he simply fold.
His equity of a guthsot on a 3,5 BB pot (around 10% equity in a 3,5 BB pot is .35BB) is ridiculously low.
Betting to protect our self from that, even more so when he have a draw as well, is not a concern.

If he double barrel good for him with this hand but he will get crush a lot more often than not because i will often have a lot of bluff catcher to pawn him more often then not.
Why ?
Because it is exactly the pot is small, my value range shrink while my calling range gets bigger and my folding range too.
Tho here my folding range by default should be small because that board smack my range big time.

Don't give me random numbers. Give me a hand range. I'm growing weary of the hand-waving game you're playing.

this is tournament so no jokes
QQ-22,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

We will be called with all pocket pairs that didint hit the river (because we checked the turn and now stealing). Lots of people call once with pocket pairs on any flop
I alwayse am confused that people see only one side of the story. How about getting free information that he takes a free card?
Weak draw to set? I dont mind to give them 4% to hit if they call my river bet and fold otherwise.

Here's the raw hand count:

QQ = 3 hands
JJ = 3 hands
TT = 1 hand
99-22 = 48 hands

AK = 12 hands
AQ = 9 hands
AJ = 9 hands
AT = 8 hands
A9 = 12 hands
A8s- = 18 hands

KQ = 12 hands
KJ = 12 hands
KT = 8 hands
K9s = 4 hands

QJ = 9 hands
QT = 6 hands
Q9s = 3 hands

JT = 9 hands
J9 = 12 hands

T9s = 2 hands

Total = 200 hands (how convenient)
Hands you are ahead of: Everything but 99-22, K9s, Q9s, T9s = 57 -- 28.5% of hands.
Hands that beat you: Everything else minus QT = 137 hands = 68.5% of hands

-------------------

The overwhelming majority of hands that you are ahead of are pocket pairs.

Q1: What percent of the time do these hands peel?
Q2: Of the times that these hands peel the flop, how often to they peel the turn?
Q3: Of the hands that are ahead of you on the turn, how often do they bet when you check?

1. Often enough. They have position, a set is a great hand, you can bluff and it's cheap
2. I think the only reason they have called the flop is a hope to see check on the turn or hit
3. all Ax (that didnt raise on the flop),QQ, and Jx. K10 75%-25%

How often is often enough? Give me a numerical estimate. Do you think 22 peels this 100% of the time?

So if you bet, you expect these hands to fold.

How do you think they respond to a check?

So let's just look at all Ax, QQ, and Jx. That's a total of 116 hands (58% of his flop range). That's the number of hands that are value betting against you. We'll keep that number in our back pocket moving forward to complete the calculation.

Heh... I don't even have a functional equity calculator. Can someone run the equity on the range vs. Hero's hand on this specific board?

Edit: Also, run it with the hands 22-99 removed. I want to demonstrate just how utterly dependent this situation is on understanding how those hands play.

It depends. You have your standard opponent, i have mine. Mine will call 90% (Maybe tomorrow it'll be 50%). Anyway if he folds your turn bet loses even more sense

Agressive guy can bet and check the river - good for us
Passive guy can check and call the river (because we checked the turn) - good for us

if the guy never raises the flop. I remained 99... maybe he saw a backdoor.

Okay. But that's not the point in this hand that's of interest. Run it again, but with the turn card as well.

No action on the turn so far






If he raises strong hands on the flop (except KQ for some balance of raising)

So it looks like some 12-15% of your equity is wrapped up in those pocket pairs. Given that our equity starts in the 40-ish% range, that's somewhere between 30-38% of your overall equity. In other words, about a third of the value of your hand is going to be found in the pocket pairs that are still in the hand when you get to the turn. So you really need to win those pots to get the maximum value out of your hand.

Now we have the last part of the puzzle. What does villain do if you check? There are many assumptions here, and it's impossible to know where the reality lives.

I maintain that checking opens up the opportunity for villain to bet twice with a fairly broad range of hands. You get the obvious value bets from the Ax hands and I believe that any pocket pair that's betting the turn is betting the river. I admit that I could be assuming too aggressive of play from villain at this point, but I look at this board and think that any hand that called the flop with fire one on the turn, and that most hands that fired on the turn will fire again on the river. (Tx has a REALLY tough time calling, and those are big wins for the PPs. I think Tx/Jx end up just checking behind, and Ax is value betting. Again, it's not too hard for villain to play fairly perfectly here because the decisions are not complicated.)

That is the crux of the matter. Do you cash in your equity against PPs or do you allow yourself to be blown off of those hands? Much of your equity is at stake here.

The check-call, check-evaluate line ends up folding 80% of the time. That's 80% of the time that taking this line walks away from a third of your equity. That can't be good. Even if I'm overestimating the frequency that villain bets, it's still a big hit to the EV of this hand to give up pots that you would otherwise have won.

It's too late for me to actually go through the whole calculation right now, but I'd encourage you to think about what you lose when you get bluffed out by taking this line. Not only are you losing the pot, but you're losing the extra bet you put in on the turn.

I'd even go out on a limb a bit and suggest that villain may stumble into a pretty decent bluffing frequency on accident, so that you're getting close to the worst possible deal on the river check-call/check-fold decision.

if he raises on the turn only with strong hands and can bluff with 22, your strategy sounds ok. We clean out all his bluffs and check(-fold) the river
But he should be sure that you're capable of folding especially after you have called the turn. He's still a bad player and "he would call that's why everybody calls". He sooner put you on an unclear draw and check back the river.
If we bet the turn his decisions are not complicated either

If you only check QT and worse, Aaron, you have a very compelling argument.

Such is the advantage of being in position sometimes. But I don't mind if the easy decision is that he gives me the whole pot. I do mind if his easy decision takes the pot away from me.

If you've got a wide checking range here, I can see how check-calling this hand will fit with that. But I suspect that a lot of players don't find checks here with QJ or KK here.

If you endup folding that much it simply because your c/c range is totally inapropriate and non existant.
Seem to me you are super aggresive and bet way too much, you are open to a lot of FRSD that would crush you imo.

So ok, this guy probably will not do that if we base our assumption that is a cold caller pf, but thinking we will get own by is pp because we will fold the river is a bit of a stretch, if is incapable of free SD raise on the turn, he certainly not capable of calling the flop with 22-99 and betting the turn and river once you chekck imo.
Tho as i said earlier, i see plenty of player like this fire one barrel on turn but just give up on the river because they have SD value and beating all the draws.

Like munga said:
Yeah of course, since if you only call with J and T and fold all your T on the river, you fold 50% of your c/c range which is way too high when a bluff need to succeed like 20% on the river...
It simple show your c/c range is way too weak on this board and are subject to bluff, it is a very imbalance range imo.

I mean with my c/c range, it is much wider so his pp bluff would get crush because the range of hands his targeting with is double barrel bluff is way to thin while i make a tons of money if his bet all is pp because he bluff way too much.

But i guess in your case like munga it seem fine on account you prevent him from bluffing by betting yourself and he will not be aggro vs you postflop with raises of semi bluff and FSDR.
But imo that is not a balance range .

It's certainly possible. I don't know what the general state of limit poker is today, but I've played long enough for the free showdown raise to have been both in and out of style. The last time I was playing with any regularity, the free showdown raise was fading in popularity.

I think balance is an important consideration, but I have strong exploitative tendencies. Playing a balanced range against weak players is often less profitable than playing an exploitative strategy against weak players.

Montreal - Do you check KK on the turn here?

Yes
Even me betting near 50% of my range on turn ( value with bluff) , kk still not in that range.
I have enough A to bet the turn with.
You force me in the work of making it sure .
I knew QT was an easy c/c but was not sure where my cutoff of value hand stop tho i suspected i have enough A already .

This is by default of course since we face an unknown without much info.
That threshold should move has the number of hands increases vs him

Btw Aaron, what would you do with 99 ?
I would much rather bet 99 than QT here to accomplish what you were speaking about, for multiple reasons.

I am not saying i would but that is what i would do from your point of view