10 chips to enter, which is ~7 bucks at the time.

5 players left, 2 spots pay. I have 20 big blinds, cutoff has 15 big blinds, button and blinds have ~10 big blinds. No antes yet.

Cutoff seems ok or bad. He probably is calling preflop with hands that he should fold and hands that he should 3 bet.

I open QT in the HJ, cutoff calls, rest fold.

AJT

I bet, cutoff calls.

5o

It's on me.

I might fire one more, but I'd consider it a bluff.

I think we have to expect we are ahead more often than behind against this player. So I vote with Aaron, lets lead and see.

i c/c here
would hate to get raised
reevaluate river

Why isn't this a super-easy fold when raised? How many outs do you think you have?

I check and call here. The Q really helps those times he can find a check with Kx.

I check some stronger stuff too.

This looks like an easy X/c, X/decide to me.

So, you're thinking that Kx/Qx is peeling loose on this flop and is planning to (semi-)bluff when checked to? Or you think a worse made hand like 77 is peeling loose on this flop but will try to value bet when checked to?

Maybe some hand-ranging will be helpful here. I think check-call is the bus to value-town, but on the opposite side of the tracks.

I check the turn.
I check-call the flop.

Are you saying our hands is not worth at least 1 BB here ?
Do you have any bluff catcher in your range and if so what are they ?


Bad but yeah, i see this plenty.


i think the point is, if our hand is worth at least 1 BB why bet and folding the turn to a raise when we can c/c and draw to the nutz and some good T too ?
what weaker hand you think is calling when you bet and what better hand you think is folding when you bet ?

seem to me this hand get a lot more value with a c/c than with a bet, hoping to fold hand we already ahead of or getting call by all the better hands too and making fold all his bluff.

"I don't want to check call" isn't a good reason to bet. We don't know what this guy will do, but he's far more likely to continue with hands in jail versus ours if we check versus if we bet.

If we bet and do get called, what's the plan on any River card that isn't a K or a T?

Our hand is worth less than 1 BB here. As I said, I view this bet to be closer to a bluff than a value bet.

I'll bluff-catch with Jx.

We see this differently because I reject that bottom pair against a cold-caller on an AJT board is worth at least 1 BB. If I were to throw out a number, it would be .75 BB.

I think your perception has a fundamental error in it. I don't think weaker hands call, and that's fine. I'm happy to win the pot.

The problem with checking here is that it's *HIGHLY* exploitable. Your opponent must have a fairly high peeling frequency and a fairly high bluffing frequency for check-calling to be right. And this is why hand ranges matter. (Incidentally, because this is a HORSE tournament, I think the ranges are narrower than cash games.)

Hands that might try to bluff if I check will probably fold if I bet. That means I win the whole pot. But by check-calling and re-evaluating, I run the risk of losing the whole pot.

If this were river-less poker, check-calling is definitely my play. But because I have two rounds of betting left and I'm out of position, I think checking allows villain to play too perfectly against me. And as I said, I really have to believe he's peeling and bluffing a ton for the check-call to be right.

Caveats:
* If villain is very passive, I don't mind checking here. A bet means I'm beat, and it costs me 0 to find this out.
* If I've check-raised a ton, checking here might freeze villain.

As to me i see no pure bluff after the flop bet was called. You check and say: i dont have an ace but i dont have "nothing" either.
So you fold a blank on the river, right?

You're saying that villain has what hand range, then?

But what are you assuming about how villain? If I'm villain and I hold K/Q-high, if I bet the turn, I'm going to bet the river. (Of course, I never coldcall this preflop, so this is one of those situations where I'm just dropped into the middle of a hand.)

If I'm playing as hero and I check-call the turn, I check-fold a blank river. As I said, I don't even think this hand is worth 1 BB, so there's no way I'm setting myself up to pay 2 BB unimproved.

No one will fold the turn with a better hand than yours here , ever.
So bad bluff there.
All you will accomplished is to put money in with a hand that is too weak to bet for value and facing a tough decision on river in a bigger pot.
And prevent yourself of having a free card if villain is kinda scared or passif or w.e
And he should check some % of the time, he c/c pf.

Now if you bet the turn has a bluff for a double barrel that is another matter.



thats not a lot of bluff catch on a board thats is very drawy and where you have a lot of value hands in your range.



agree but we have a gutshot as well thats makes it tip in favor of a c/c.
So we have good IO because if villain got an A or 2 pair when we hit a K or a T he will not fold the river.

Btw you say our hand is not worth 1 BB?
Answer this than...
We check and villain check, a low x card hit the river, you do not bet for value a pair of T here?



Not really i do not see why.
It is limit poker right, the reason value betting thin makes money is because everyone peel lightly.
Especially when they have position.


If you are scared of losing this pot it means that your check call range is way too weak imo.

Btw his a cold caller pf, assuming a bad player would play perfectly makes no sense, he wont.
I am saying this because this is a spot that should not happen vs a tough opponent so being a bit more "transparent" is fine.
Btw, i think c/c here has a lot of value to see if villain barrel off or not on the river.
A lot of player take a shot on the turn but rarely double barrel a pair has a bluff.
So it is good to force them as well to make them fire a third barrel, you might show weakness but this is perfect if you have a good calling range has a bluff catcher.
It does not really matter who put the bets in , right?

Exactly...
It is a situation that would not happen vs tough opponents, c/c this hand has more value .
Assuming a cold caller pf in this situation will play perfect poker on the turn and river when you c/c this turn because you open yourself to be exploited easilly is in my mind an even more exploitable concept.



Of course and what is wrong with that?
Dont you agree bluff catch and bluffing hands combos gets narrower has the hands develops?

Yeah. It's not a bluff. But I said "closer to a bluff." I'm betting to get hands to fold, not because I want hands to call.

I think the river is super obvious if I bet here and get called. What do you think makes that a tough decision.

Most of the time when he checks, it's because he has the worst hand.

QJ/KJ are not value hands here. Also, I don't have too many other Jx hands in this spot. Do you?

The implied odds are meh. You have so few outs and the board will be so scary that you're not getting a big up side. I think you've overvalued this.

Hand ranges.

Nope. Because you don't get called. If the turn goes check-check and nothing interesting happens, it's a check and hope he bluffs.

I think you misread what I wrote because this doesn't make sense.

On this board, the ranges are already narrow. You're not looking to have dozens of hands that take each play because you just don't have that much to work with.

I'm scared of losing this pot because the check-call line is totally exploitable in this spot. Again, UNLESS you think he's going to be have a fairly broad Kx/Qx range (you still have not given a hand range) AND he's going to be bluffing almost all of those, there's just no way that check-calling is going to be right.

Okay. So if you don't think you have to play him like a tough opponent, why are you worried about balancing your ranges? Just exploit tendencies and be done with it.

Duh.

But how many hands are there that he's peeling the turn with?

Again, I think you're just dreaming super optimistically. Put some hand ranges on this and then we'll see.

It does, actually. Because depending on who puts the bets in, the ranges will be different.

This play is very much dependent upon it being the turn. As I said, in no-river poker, this is a super easy check-call. With two streets left, it's a completely different situation.

Right, but we're not against a tough opponent. Or at least, that seems to be the assumption you were making in the other post.

Hand ranges. I'm not assuming he will. Based on the hand ranges, I'm saying that it's likely his play will be much closer to perfect play. In other words, this is a spot where villain is prone to get it right even if he doesn't really know what he's doing.

I don't think it's "wrong." I think it has a lower EV than bet-folding the turn.

Sure. But when the hand ranges are narrow to begin with (such as on this flop), there's little change in value because there's not much change in the ranges.

Enough abstract chatter. Let me see what you think the preflop coldcall/flop call hand ranges look like.

Yes lets look at those ranges. I remain convinced that we are ahead more often than we are behind and that we should bet because we are ahead. This guy will let us know if he hits his small pair and likely just call with Jx

Betting just because we are ahead is imo bad poker.
you bet to get called by worst or folding better hands usually.
this fit no where in there.
You just make fold worst hands, getting call by better and preventing your opponent from bluffing and opening you up to bluff raises with a hand that at least is worth 5 outs IF behind with some potent SD value.

Just betting to fold worst hand for not getting bluff and risking to get bluff raise seem to me a very bad reason to bet.

Winning the pot matters. I think your view of equity has completely forgotten that something that's many times the size of your equity edge in a check-call situation is still at stake in this hand.

If you feel compelled to call down to a turn raise here, then check-call. I don't know why you would really consider that an option. I asked you about that in your very first response.

I want to see some hand ranges.

ok

You answered this in your next quote.
By using this hand to bet which is not a bluff ( your own words) , what info you gather when he called ?
He still can have a weaker hand than yours because that is what bad cold caller do, they call.
What you do not know it is his tendency.
how would you know how aggro he is if you almost never c/c the turn, trying to figure how often he barrel once or twice.
c/c this hand and maybe having a free SD or having a free card and having an easy bet for value on river if he check is imo a lot more useful information than simple betting and ASSUMING your beat by folding the river.


I have so many A in my range i would not even bet pocket K here because the pot is not that big.
So my hand range for value is not that wide.



Well we do not know much about him but if he cold call pf, i assume not many board will be too scary for him to call with hands that is better than ours before we improved on the river.
So i think our IO is fine.


This is bad...
This is where i think we disagree strongly of all the discussion and i cannot believe you do not see why.
No wonder you think c/c here is bad on turn...


How do you know if it is narrow or not ?
We do not even know if his a calling station or not?
My hand range is not narrow i would cbet my entire range on the flop and if his a calling station his hand range is still quit large on turn.

If you are scared to be bluffed out of this pot by c/c this hand you really should c/c down....
And like i said earlier, letting him bluff one street is fine because not all of them bluff twice and this is useful info.


??????
Exactly ! How would you know if his aggro and bluff too much when you do not check ?
You really think cold caller pf would only bluff with a raise ?
You think finding tendency of bad players is easier by betting hands that are mxing bluff and value
or
having a very define range with good bet for value, check call and bluffing range ?



No idea if his a calling station or not and what kind is he .


It is funny you said this because you are the one in the first place betting this hand which is not a bluff and not a value hand too...So yeah obv. the hand ranges will be different...but the value would be the same tho, that is the point.



Of course.

I do not feel compelled to call a turn raise this is exactly why i c/c when i have decent SD equity with some draw to the nutz.
Paying 1 BB to see 2 streets and forcing my opponent to bluff me twice with a hand like this by c/c the turn is imo much better than betting and hoping he folds or having to fold to a raise without seeing the river because you know what, we still got to pay 1 BB in either case.

No offense, i really do like talking to you

BUT...

this sounds results oriented a lot.
Playing good poker matters, winning pot will come by itself, really.

Let's see your hand ranges. I don't believe you have decent SD equity. But until you produce hand ranges, I won't know what you believe about this situation.

You don't even need to limit yourself to just one range. Maybe make a "loose" range and a "tight" range and see where the swing is.

But until you actually do that part of the exercise, you will never see whether you're right or wrong.

If I can't produce a range that check calling is right, how could bet folding ever be better?