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Old 06-23-2012, 01:51 AM   #1
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Flopped set - line and thought process check (local cardroom)

$6/$12 at local card room. Played less than 10 hands at table, only a couple familiars who aren't in this hand anyway.

blinds $2 and $6.
3 folds, MP6 calls, fold, hero in CO calls with (44), BU raises, sb folds, bb calls, MP6 calls, hero calls. 4 handed

Flop: 4d, 9c, 10s
bb checks, mp6 checks, hero bets, BU calls, bb calls, mp6 calls
at this point i feel pretty good about my hand, thinking BU raised with overcards. bb and mp6 coming along for cheap bet to see if their hands improves

turn: 7s
bb checks, mp6 checks, hero bets, BU raises, hero (time)
i took a while to think, not feeling good about it. His hand isn't merely overcards anymore. Straight is out there but i didn't see him raising preflop with J8 unless it was suited, and even that is rare. Did he raise preflop w/ A8s and now raising on come? Pocket 8s? Which led me to see the 77 or 99 or TT for higher set. But I talked myself into thinking he was slow playing T9 on flop. So I raised:
continued: hero 3 bets, BU calls.
now I'm kinda leaning towards my hand being good

river: 4d
hero bets, BU calls
BU shows 77 for higher set.
He said he didn't 4 bet because he thought I had straight, which i guess was likely considering my line.

my questions: Can I ever or should I ever fold to that raise on the turn? For some reason the higher sets were really apparent, but I talked myself into raising hoping he had T9 or on draw. Any and all comments appreciated.

Thanks.
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Old 06-23-2012, 02:43 AM   #2
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Re: Flopped set - line and thought process check (local cardroom)

Typo:

River 5d
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Old 06-23-2012, 02:47 AM   #3
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Re: Flopped set - line and thought process check (local cardroom)

Some players, especially live, save their ambush-raises on the turn for really big hands. Also, if Villain merely had an overpair, you'd think he'd want to raise with it on the flop for some immediate protection. So those are some reasons to be concerned once you get popped on the turn. Still, I've never in my life at a limit hold 'em table had a read that I felt was good enough to fold a set on the turn.

Earlier in the hand, you have a lot of incentive to checkraise the flop, given your relative position to the preflop raiser, since potentially you'll get to checkraise after Button bets and the other two players call. (On the other hand, if you bet and get raised, the other two players might fold for two bets cold super-longshot draws against your hand that they would have called with one bet at a time.) But if you think there's a good chance Button will check the flop, then that's a reason to bet it yourself.
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Old 06-23-2012, 07:23 AM   #4
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Re: Flopped set - line and thought process check (local cardroom)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick C View Post
Some players, especially live, save their ambush-raises on the turn for really big hands. Also, if Villain merely had an overpair, you'd think he'd want to raise with it on the flop for some immediate protection. So those are some reasons to be concerned once you get popped on the turn. Still, I've never in my life at a limit hold 'em table had a read that I felt was good enough to fold a set on the turn.

Earlier in the hand, you have a lot of incentive to checkraise the flop, given your relative position to the preflop raiser, since potentially you'll get to checkraise after Button bets and the other two players call. (On the other hand, if you bet and get raised, the other two players might fold for two bets cold super-longshot draws against your hand that they would have called with one bet at a time.) But if you think there's a good chance Button will check the flop, then that's a reason to bet it yourself.
I like betting out on flop because with 4 players to the flop there is a good chance villain checks his over cards back. That would be a disaster.

never folding. NH
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Old 06-23-2012, 08:31 AM   #5
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Re: Flopped set - line and thought process check (local cardroom)

I raise pre, but other than that, nice hand. you can't fold turn, ever, and calling just don'st make a lot of sense, because his line doesn't make a ton of sense, especially from unk live player.
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Old 06-23-2012, 09:22 AM   #6
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Re: Flopped set - line and thought process check (local cardroom)

raise pf, not so much because you are a massive fav (since obviously you are not) but because isolating limpers ip and hu or 3way is bread and butter lhe.

as played, c/r the flop as my default. ant is right it's really bad when it gets checked though but we're in the best possible position to c/r and this board is very dry so whatever BU opened with should be inclined to barrel (but for full disclosure i always raise pf so am never in this actual spot).
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Old 06-23-2012, 04:12 PM   #7
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Re: Flopped set - line and thought process check (local cardroom)

preflop I would fold if there is one limper and this game gets raised a lot. you are probably playing for a set so you want like 5 guys in the hand. You expect the button and sb to limp.

flop I would checkraise with our position to get a couple bets in. Donking seems not ideal here.

turn you played fine. I would think most of the time villain has a big pair here or no-pair plus draw or something. 3-bet is standard. If villain caps, I think we just calldown. The pot is super huge and folding a set would be a disastrous mistake.

river - fine. I think hero wins most of the time.
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Old 06-24-2012, 03:53 PM   #8
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Re: Flopped set - line and thought process check (local cardroom)

I think considering preflop and flop action the guy has 77 the vast majority of the time. Once in a while you'll see J8s(if he's wild enough to raise this preflop he's probably going to raise this rainbow flop so it's discounted even more), 97s, or T9s. I just call the turn raise because the average live player is so passive. Online I'd 3 bet. River is good as played since he just called your 3 bet on the turn 2 pair is more likely now with 77 still there but it won't raise you anyways.
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