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Old 03-19-2017, 02:45 AM   #1
Montrealcorp's Avatar
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,939

Well it happened...
I heard some story about it too tho, i was laughing thinking no way it can happen to me because usually it happens at much higher stakes due to shorter winning rate and the aggressiveness of the stakes in question.
1000BB downswing in the past 5 months...
I almost quit online poker last week !
I know i am not a great poker player but still.
I just could not hit my fair share of draws and i was losing way too many 80-90% pot equity on the river.

3 toughts cross my mind:
I was thinking i was not as good as i thought,
the competition got way better in an amazing short time frame or
the site i was playing on had some superuser accounts ( i was really starting to think about it, the way it went...)

Than i decided to give it 1 more shot 3 days ago and in a few hours i just got around 200BB back.

Still shaking tho but confidence seem to come back bit by bit and it really start to went well when i just stop focusing on the money and just try to play good poker.

Of course in a downswing you surely play badly some of the time and i think i was just trying to win too many pot instead of just accepting the variance ride and make good folds.

And for the newcomers, yeah 50BB - 100BB downswing is nothing once you experience that ****ty 5 months period that i lived.
So hand in there and dont sweat about it even if it reach 200BB if you know you are a winning player.

I hope no one experience this but if it ever happens to you just know it will pass and i feel for you ( unless you play at my table ... )

Anyway, it is going a bit better but was wondering if anyone did suffer such a huge downswing ?

I would be very interesting to know what would of been the chance that happening for a guy who runs at least at 1 BB/100 hands tho !
Even 0.75BB/100hands would be interesting to see if it does make any significant difference .

Gl at the table, yes luck sometimes seem to play a crucial role .
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Old 03-20-2017, 04:05 PM   #2
California Elephant
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: I finished my website!
Posts: 21,078
Re: Downswing.

downswings suck - hang in there!

i don't think i've had a 1000 BB downswing - i just looked in one of my databases (970k hands - the rest is on some other drive somewhere) and i have some 500-700 BB downswings as well as lots of ~300 BB ones. i always adhered to a fairly strict stop-loss, and would take days or weeks off often, so i think that probably helped a bit in avoiding catastrophic drops. it looks like my longest breakeven stretch was about 120k hands. my overall winrate was about 1 BB/100.

i don't have the links any more, but there are some variance calculators you can use online to see how likely certain swings/results/outcomes are. i'm sure 1000 is rare but possible. it's important to consider game quality - are there legitimate fish in your games or are you just battling regs? the biggest swings are most likely when your winrate is ~zero. it's also important to honestly consider tilt/mental game/etc and if that was any factor in things.
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Old 03-23-2017, 08:51 AM   #3
Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: May 2012
Location: now let's see his ****ing cards
Posts: 7,748
Re: Downswing.

Babar is wise.


Good luck man. I'm glad to hear that you gained some of it back. Just the simple fact that you managed to go through a 1kBB swing without going broke shows much discipline in bankroll management. I'm nowhere near as good with my roll. So you got that going for you.

What's the rake like at the stakes you've been playing? Could be that the rake is so high that it makes your chances of having huge swings go way up.

Remember that it's just a game and it's supposed to be fun. This helps me through the tough times. Much like when I'm stressing over a chess position. I tell myself "It's just a chess game." Then I'm free to enjoy myself win or lose.
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Old 03-23-2017, 11:30 AM   #4
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 86
Re: Downswing.

You cant be honest about your game during abnormal losing streak. Just impossible.
If you want to play nevertheless, maybe it's not a bad idea to play other form of poker
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