Villain is 28/22 w/ a 9% 3bet over 200 hands. Not enough hand to continue against this range (preflop and flop 3!s) right?

Merge - $0.50/$1 - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $27.95
SB: $53.98
BB: $20.42
UTG: $58.63
Hero (MP): $45.99
CO: $22.20

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has J K

fold, Hero raises to $1.00, CO raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.75, 2 players) T 8 J
Hero checks, CO bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.00, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($6.75, 2 players) A
Hero checks, CO bets $1.00, Hero?

The pre-flop stats only tell part of the story.
You should also take into account post-flop tendencies when gauging whether to continue. Without knowing post-flop tendencies, you won't have as many tools at your disposal to take advantage of the other player.

Barring any post-flop read, if you think { 99, QJ-JT } are in his pre-flop and flop range, then I am pretty sure you have a call.

after 200 hands you should have seen at least a couple of his 3bets to have a better idea on his range... (at least filter your stats and pretend you took the notes

but anyways.... I'd put 88+ in his range, I wouldn't put JT in his 3b range - maybe JTs (but we're behind to that too)

you only beat 99 and QJs
if you are behind only 4 Q outs are "mostly" clean
maybe discount to 3.5 outs...
(...you should probably do some combo counts here.... )

your getting 8.75:2 to call down ui

www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: TdJh8cAc
Equity Win Tie
MP3 25.26% 23.21% 2.06% { KsJd }
CO 74.74% 72.68% 2.06% { 88+, AJs, KJs+, QJs, AJo }

your actually pretty close odds-to-equity - but I'm gonna take a stab and say your combo counts are ugly - I'd probly fold

Shouldn't we discount 99 a bit after the flop 3-bet?

depends on what he thinks we are opening with - if we're opening down to 66 or 55, then it's an easy 3b - especially if the blinds are tight...

Edit: from villains pov
www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
MP3 48.43% 47.95% 0.48% { 55+, A7s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, A8o+, KTo+, QJo }
CO 51.57% 51.09% 0.48% { 88 }

easy turn call, decide on the river

super standard 3! w 99, play more fishmax ampeldude

I disagree. I agree that it could be in his range but I disagree that it shouldn't be discounted. It should be. Barring reads I cut out at least 50% of the 99 combos.

i was commenting on preflop...

on the flop, maybe he has 99

oic. I thought you were responding to the part you quoted...

I wasn't talking about preflop. This is a very easy 3-bet against almost all opponents in FR as well, preflop. I was talking about the flop.

call and see what the river brings.....

Do we all love c/r'ing the flop? As I read the hand I felt like just going into WA/WB mode. Not sure if that is right, but I block one of his overcards and don't mind letting a 6outer barrel...of course that plan was shot to death on the turn anyways

I get the C/R, but dread getting 3!'d here....seems kind of thinnish

I didnt have any notes! I usually take that as pretty straightforward...

well, when I stoved 9% I had 99, ATs, and KTs as hands I beat. (and I guess if he 3! QTs then that too). But I didn't have a note about those (2nd pair hands) being in his flop 3! range...

*g* If villain is 28/22 and is at CO, you are behind to 88, TT, KQ, Ax, etc.. Do you have enough outs to make it worth calling? Pot odds are something like 6:1.. I think you have something like 5 outs? (2 J's, 3 K's) Although if he has 88, TT, then the K's don't help you.

I would probably fold.. what am I missing in the analysis?

*g*

Villain didn't blink when A fell, have 4 outs and some dirty J/K outs getting 8:1 seems like a call and fold unimproved.

A couple of thoughts:

• If he's a thinking, positionally aware player he would 3bet significantly more than 9% against your CO open since the 9% is his total 3bet percentage
• The note you're really looking for is if he uses the call flop, raise turn line with TP+ (or overpairs+)
• Some players bet/3bet the flop with AK/AQ/KQ. For that reason the turn A could be bad. In fact, it's the worst card in the deck then. (Otherwise it would only improve AT and AA as you were already behind AJ. In fact, against AJ the A just improved you from 3 outs to 4 outs.)