Been thinking about this one, and not only do I think calling is a valid option, I kinda think it's the
best option. I'll expound....
I already stated in prior post why we mustn't only be re-raise or fold. Now I'll state why I think maybe it's the best option, and it primarily has to do with what we can say about the villains involved.
lolsamplesize of 13 hands on CO, so we've only a
very fuzzy picture of him. But already we can probably assume he's not a maniac, that he usually comes in with a raise, and appears to be positionally aware. He's shaping out to be either lagtag, bad lag, or a tag who has run a touch warm over first 13 hands. So I'd generally want to put him on a typical tag range for a CO open (maybe around 32-35% range).
Now what can we say about the BTN? Another tiny sample, but the thing that's jumping out at me so far is the giant gap between his vpip and pfr: apparently he's vpip 7 of 29 hands, but only raised 2 of 29. Indicates perhaps he'll often cc as apposed to iso-raising, especially with this being 10-max and not 6-max: seems unlikely that the gap is due simply to him defending his bb against steals, while not finding hands in other positions (he'll only have been in bb max of 3 times so far).
This would have me worried he's one of those guys that never re-raises without a monster. Now I'm not saying we should assume he's only ever got approx JJ/QQ+ and AK (though it must be entertained as a possibility), but nor do I think we should assume he's gonna have a wide iso 3bet range.
Against a ~34% CO range, even if we assume the BTN has a (imo unlikely) semi-wide range of 55+, A8s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, we have <36% equity. And if BTN does indeed have only QQ+ and AK, our equity is <24%.
Our actual equity is probably somewhere in between (I think usually in the 25-30% range, personally). For this reason, I don't like capping: I think we're juicing a pot where we've got less than our fair share. Also it ties us to vpwning ourselves on the flop when we whiff.
otoh, even if our equity is only 24%, we get ~3.1:1 even if CO caps (3.7:1 if he just calls). So we're getting too good a price for this hand; so I don't think fold is a good option.
Nemesis made some other accurate statements regarding our specific hand and relative position to the 3bettor:
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis
2. i dont think you need to trreat this as a raise or fold spot. nobody is folding, balance isnt an issue, it has a small edge pre and post, and this hand plays well without initiative oop. by that i mean, not capping a hand like AA can result in the flop checking through, a disaster. AJs otoh likes to see free turns, wont have big edges when jamming, and will like to be able to c/r KO the CO.
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I hope between the two of us, we've given sufficient argument that cc'ing is not only a valid move, but perhaps the best one we have.