This type of spot comes up frequently. SB is 49/17, definitely coldcalls light. Mixed-bag postflop, he's slowplay TP+ OOP but c-r weaker made hands on safer flops.


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.20 Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37415146

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8 A
MP folds, Hero raises, BTN folds, SB calls, BB folds

Flop: (5 SB) 9 K T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls

Turn: (3.5 BB) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

My inclination is to bet as last money unimproved, but there are better Ax hands in my range that can semi-bluff, plus some gutshots/OESDs.

What do you beat that continues beyond the flop?

Even if you take out big pairs and big Aces for lack of preflop 3-bet, I'd reckon you got around 20-25% equity in the hand against a mix of made/non-made hands that see the turn.

Against 77-22, you're in a pretty good spot to counterfeit but even against only that you've got ~25% equity.

If you bet, I don't think you're getting your money in good, and it won't be for value because you're losing value - range permitting.

Given the read and nothing else to rely on, I'd check behind the turn. I'd bet in other situations though with a more developed read - say if the player had a high fold to turn c-bet.

Fairly new to poker but here are my thoughts.

Looks like a calling station from the statistics you've given, I would be inclined to check and hope for an ace on the river. Especially considering it looks like he's got a hand of some sort; strong or otherwise (even a draw).

I wouldn't have made a continuation bet as you have no hand and you're opponent is unlikely to fold. I would wait until you flop a good hand against this opponent and bet for value.

Not that I'm arguing for betting the turn, but think my equity on the turn is better than 25%, even if he still has some Kx an pair+draw combos:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9cKsThKh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 32.26% 26.72% 5.54% { Ah8s }
CO 67.74% 62.20% 5.54% { 66-22, K7s-K4s, Q7s-Q6s, J7s, 76s, JdTd, JsTs, JcTc, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qs9s, Jd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Ad8d, Ac8c, Qd8d, Qh8h, Qc8c, Jd8d, Jh8h, Jc8c, Td8d, Tc8c, 9d8d, 9h8h, Ad7d, As7s, Ac7c, Td7d, Ts7s, Tc7c, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9s7s, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8c7c, Ad9h, Ad9s, As9d, As9h, Ac9d, Ac9h, Ac9s, Ad8h, Ad8c, As8d, As8h, As8c, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ad7c, As7d, As7h, As7c, Ac7d, Ac7h, Ac7s, Kd8h, Kd8c, Kh8d, Kh8c, Kc8d, Kc8h, QdTs, QdTc, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, QsTd, QsTc, QcTd, QcTs, Qd9h, Qd9s, Qh9d, Qh9s, Qs9d, Qs9h, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, Qd8h, Qd8c, Qh8d, Qh8c, Qs8d, Qs8h, Qs8c, Qc8d, Qc8h, JdTs, JdTc, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JsTd, JsTc, JcTd, JcTs, Jd9h, Jd9s, Jh9d, Jh9s, Js9d, Js9h, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jd8h, Jd8c, Jh8d, Jh8c, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Td8h, Td8c, Ts8d, Ts8h, Ts8c, Tc8d, Tc8h, 9d8h, 9d8c, 9h8d, 9h8c, 9s8d, 9s8h, 9s8c }

I should still be c-betting this flop 100% of the time because it hits my range so hard. Balance against a bad 10c/20c opponent isn't as important but I still don't want to deviate so far from standard play unless I have a very good grip on my opponent.

I'd check it back on the turn and call any river that doesn't put up four to a straight.