Beeker hand from LC/NC Thread

[beeker]

Originally Posted by dragon1893

was it an overcall?

hard to say what to do without seeing the hand history

I remember the hand near enough. (I'm at work, sort of)
No specific reads on these players, though the table itself had been pretty passive and occasionally loose. Seemed like an initial limper would get several other limpers to follow.

Pre-Flop
Hero has 44 in UTG
Hero limps,... folds..., CO limps, ...folds..., BB checks
Play at table had been fairly loose/passive so I thought I could get in cheap with several callers. Didn't work out that way, but I did hit the set.

Flop: A J 4 (3.5SB)
check, Hero bets, call, call

Turn: 7 (3.25 BB)
check, Hero bets, call, call
One heart doesn't overly worry me, as I believe the odds are below 25% that either of the players has 2 hearts. My set is probably still good.

River: K (6.25 BB)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO folds

[Xylocain]

QT

[bozlax]

Originally Posted by beeker

River: K (6.25 BB)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO folds

Steaks? But, yeah, you call that.

[beeker]

Originally Posted by Xylocain

QT

Yeah. Don't actually recall the suit on the Ten, but that lovely lady was sitting there.

[beeker]

Originally Posted by bozlax

Steaks? But, yeah, you call that.

.10/.20

I'm guessing the reason this is relevant is because of the type of player? FWIW there are a few very devious players at that level (too devious for their own good, I think) but there are also quite a few straight-ahead players. By default I put people into the latter category until I see evidence of the former (either by getting horribly slow-played or I start to see them caught in bluffs).

I don't make trips against a four-to-a-flush often (I still mostly single table), but I'll try to grit my teeth and remember the 15% rule in future (at least until I have enough hands to convince myself it doesn't work at these stakes).

[beeker]

Originally Posted by beeker

BB came to life on the river when there was 4-to-a-flush on the board.

There are times when the universe is trying to tell you something. Sometimes the universe takes the form of Bozlax, and those times scare me. Sometimes Bozlax gets supplemented by the Library, which spooks me out.

I was cruising the micro-limit library for info on note-taking and saw a section I swear I had never seen before.

The Clarkmeister...

http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/show...0&fpart=1&vc=1

(Yes I know it wasn't HU, but still...the timing is weird.)

[bozlax]

Originally Posted by beeker

There are times when the universe is trying to tell you something. Sometimes the universe takes the form of Bozlax, and those times scare me. Sometimes Bozlax gets supplemented by the Library, which spooks me out.

I was cruising the micro-limit library for info on note-taking and saw a section I swear I had never seen before.

The Clarkmeister...

http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/show...0&fpart=1&vc=1

(Yes I know it wasn't HU, but still...the timing is weird.)

lol...I was going to mention Clark in my original response, but didn't want to get too deep into it in the NC thread. fwiw, the donk inclines me to believe that the player DOESN'T have the flush (most donks go for the c/r), which might make you think that we want to raise, but there's also the 2nd player to act (and if he raises at all we're looking at a fold) who might have it, and if we do raise the only hand either player can even call with is the flush.

[A_Schupick]

Beeker, i like the fold with the person behind you. Good fold.

[beeker]

Originally Posted by A_Schupick

Beeker, i like the fold with the person behind you. Good fold.

D'oh. Now I'm confused again.

I see your point about the guy behind. Just not sure how to weight his presence.

I'm wondering if this comes down to a thin decision? I suspect I should go through my PT database and look at how often such a bet occurs and what its results are.

Does anyone know how to filter for 4-to-a-flush on the river that would apply to ALL hands in the database and not just those for which I was still in? When I tried to do this last night I only ended up with 12 cases in which I was still a going concern. But I'm sure there must be a bunch of hands where only other players were involved. How do I filter to capture all cases? Surely I don't have to go through all 600+ players in my database and then eliminate duplicates?

[bozlax]

Originally Posted by beeker

I see your point about the guy behind. Just not sure how to weight his presence.

For my money the guy behind pushes this even more to a call. When you call, you protect the pot. If CO calls, he's padding the pot for you (there just aren't that many hands he should have over-limped with pre that have made it to the river and hit a small enough flush that he doesn't want to raise); if he raises you can snap-fold regardless of what SB does.

Again, this boils down to, "what does a 3-way donk on a 4-flush river mean?" Unless the SB is known to make hopeless bluffs in situations like this, he just doesn't change the situation that much (except that he probably makes your odds to call better).

[A_Schupick]

Originally Posted by beeker

I remember the hand near enough. (I'm at work, sort of)
No specific reads on these players, though the table itself had been pretty passive and occasionally loose. Seemed like an initial limper would get several other limpers to follow.

Pre-Flop
Hero has 44 in UTG
Hero limps,... folds..., CO limps, ...folds..., BB checks
Play at table had been fairly loose/passive so I thought I could get in cheap with several callers. Didn't work out that way, but I did hit the set.

Flop: A J 4 (3.5SB)
check, Hero bets, call, call

Turn: 7 (3.25 BB)
check, Hero bets, call, call
One heart doesn't overly worry me, as I believe the odds are below 25% that either of the players has 2 hearts. My set is probably still good.

River: K (6.25 BB)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO folds

Can you move this to a thread Doug?

I think that honestly, its not even close to a call. I think with the person behind and someone donking into 2 other people just means we are not right enough here tomake it profitable, plus, what is the person behind you raises, which seems more than plausible if he has 8-Q

[dragon1893]

if the guy behind you raises, it's an easy fold

[antneye]

Originally Posted by A_Schupick

Can you move this to a thread Doug?

I think that honestly, its not even close to a call. I think with the person behind and someone donking into 2 other people just means we are not right enough here tomake it profitable, plus, what is the person behind you raises, which seems more than plausible if he has 8-Q

I'm with schup on this one.

[Xylocain]

Originally Posted by antneye

I'm with schup on this one.

ya. but it depends on the donker. imo 5 hands is basically enough to know wether to call or fold.

to even consider calling vs me is beyond absurd for instance.

[antneye]

People just don't bluff multi-way pots. This is a lesson I learned the hard way in PLO, but it still applies to LHE. This is an extremely scary board so villain donks for value because it is so easy for someone to check behind a smaller flush that would call, or as in this case a set that doesn't want to fold.

I am donking if I am villain, and there is no way I am bluffing.