Villain is a feisty 26/17/14 over a couple hundred hands. No specific post flop reads.

Merge - $0.25/$0.50 (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $21.79
BTN: $12.69
Hero (SB): $17.95
BB: $26.56
UTG: $24.49
MP: $3.78

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has T J

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, BB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.50, 2 players) 6 7 9
Hero checks, BB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($2.00, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.00

Initially I was think I'm going to have to also barrel the river in attempt to get a better Q high or Ace high to fold. Looking back I'm not sure I get a fold from Ace high enough in the middle of a blind battle. Thoughts?

Looking at it, I'm on the fence concerning the raise. Double gut shot, right? I get what you're saying about having to barrel the River. What worries me is BB 3!. I can see the K here hitting his 3! range. But at the same time, it's a pretty good spot to put the semi-bluff raise in here. But that said, I'm not sure if I can SD w/JTs vs a BB 3!. I might just call here and re-eval the River, x/f the River UI.

yes - I think you can get Ahi to fold enough if you barrel the river ui - if there was more pf action and the pot was bigger you might get looked up more often...

definitely agree with the semi-bluff raise with the double gut - if we get 3b we have the odds to draw to 8 outs but more importantly, we have a lot of FE if he doesn't hold a K.

(wondering about bluff raising the flop - there are a lot of turn cards that ui overs maybe should fold on the turn - 5, 8, 9, T, 's...)

I would of folded the turn. You got raised 3bet PF, you just called the flop, if you planned on taking the hand down I would of raised the flop. You raised the turn, you have no option but to bet the river UI or not..IMO

i'd prefer to attack on the flop. hearts and also any 5 are scary for our opponent and so this gives us fold equity. We have overcards+GSSD (roughly 7 discounted outs) which is a decent draw to semibluff with.

bluffing on the turn is expensive when we're paying a big bet to do it. Also, some of the hands we hope to bluff may actually not c-bet on the turn. That flop connects well with our hand range and if he hasn't improved theres fewer reasons to bet again.

If we compare a bluff on the flop with a bluff on the turn we're increasing our cost to bluff an increasingly narrow hand range. We're also representing far fewer hands: mostly turned top pair or 2 pair+ that slowplayed or improved.

i4c14u, note that on the turn our Hero has a double GSSD and both give him the nut striaght. His JT can sometimes win by hitting any pair too. He has probably 10 outs at worst and cannot fold getting 5:1 odds.

I agree with a lot of this.

*g*

Well first off I checked and I'm not the villain . Unbiased comments follow.

*edit* now that I noticed the double gutshot I'll write something meaningful...

Against a player with decent stats + no reads I'm torn between just calling and the semi-bluff... I think just calling is better. His 3! range is narrow, that K hits that range well, and alot of his hands with an A have connected with the board somehow. I only see us folding out AQo and AJo. Everything else has a piece of the board and is gonna stick around. Plus I feel that even if we make a pair on the river, we could easily be reverse dominated. Thus, we're throwing money to our opponent as he is most often going to call and we have no showdown value.


Board: 679*K
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****21.15%**20.19%***0.96%*{ JdTd }
MP3****78.85%**77.88%***0.96%*{ 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


Imo call the turn, x/r or lead a straight--I think lead it, I'm trying to add moar river value bets in ma game and this feels like one of those situations--and x/c a J or a T.

can't fold turn. double gutted

was wondering about this - I'm glad you agreed

I don't think a "feisty 26/17/14" checks this turn after a pf 3b, ever.
(14 is af, not Afq, right?)

Agree that flop bluff>turn bluff, and after what Breich said I've come around to turn call>turn bluff - especially considering that we have to either follow through with the bluff UI on the river or c/f and both those options pretty much suck..

That must be a typo for 1.4. A 14 AF would mean he's betting and raising 14 times as often as he's calling, which is basically impossible. I agree with Dats that the broadway hands in his range will often check the turn.

Don't think this was the day you were at the table, but it may have been. Get ready for Monday's part 2 of that vid--I fully expect some solid (and deserved) berating by DD. I shipped him that vid b/c of how poorly I think I played in some spots .

Anyway, I wondered about the flop raise but my concern is that it looks like I have a draw, and I don't think I get folds from Ace high often enough. Also, I think he's auto firing every turn given his preflop 3!, and I'm probably waiting to raise the turn with a lot of my value hands. (Except against y'all on Merge...I'm only raising for value, so go ahead and fold .)

As for only targeting AJ and AQ, I think by the river AQ/AJ/QJ/QT can hopefully find a fold, as well as maybe maybe a weak pair if I fire the last barrel. Would anybody be happy calling with 7x, 88, 9x, TT with a river Ace or broadway or ?

Whoa sorry guys. The 14 is "14%" 3bet.

I searched my pt3 by board cards and I wasn't in this particular hand. I've only got a couple hundred hands of play with you.

Idk, the board is draw heavy and I think lots of pairs might call your river barrel. AQ/AJ/QJ/QT are only a small portion of his range and I don't think you fold him out enough to be profitable.

If you attack the flop with this hand, your flop bluff-raises are going to be a huge % of your range. Break yourself down on this flop and see what % of your raises are bluffs vs. what % are for value. It also folds in to whether or not you have a PF 4 betting range.

The second part here is to look at the villains PF 3 betting range. What hands does he ever fold here to a flop raise? How about a turn barrel?

I think you'll see that you wind up raising way too much and that he's unlikely to fold. This combination may force you to never raise this flop. There are other ways to go about it but I think 2OC + GSSD likely stays in your calling range, even if you do raise some stuff. You also have to consider how well your real outs line up with scare cards.