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Old 01-12-2017, 01:37 AM   #1
Garwin
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Am I missing easy value on the river?

SB is a 27/15/1.4 AF nitty reg,

I tend to freeze on the river and check a hand as good as KK against very tight players like this on A-hi boards, I'm not sure if this player type raise a low ace at any point. My question is, am I missing an easy vbet here?

    Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37577240

    Preflop: Hero is BB with K K
    MP folds, CO calls, BTN folds, SB completes, Hero raises, CO calls, SB calls

    Flop: (6 SB) A 5 Q (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets, CO folds, SB calls

    Turn: (4 BB) 5 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls

    River: (6 BB) 8 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks




    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
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    Old 01-15-2017, 02:47 AM   #2
    Garwin
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    Re: Am I missing easy value on the river?

    This must be too simplistic for you guys to bother answering, I had a long downswing at the end of 2016 that forced me to drop down stakes and made me question even the most fundamentals part of my game like river v-bets. The old me would have bet there 100% of the time.

    The more I think about this hand the more I realize I missed easy value. If villain raises all Ax and stronger hands on the flop or turn he has only weaker than KK stuff left in his range. I'm targeting Qx and smaller PPs with a river bet,

    If he only calldown to the end with, let's say : A7, A6, A4, A3, A2 (12 x 5) = 60 combos I'm behind of ( I think he would raise pre with A9+)

    If he also only call with : 77, 66, 44, 33, 22 (5 x 6) = 30 combos
    and QJ, QT, Q9 (12 x 3) = 36 combos

    30 + 36 = 66 combos I'm ahead of (he would raise pre with AQ, KQ, 99+)


    So even if he calls down weak aces, it's closer but I think I have a thin river value bet, I hope that makes sense (I suck at combos counting and estimating ranges)
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    Old 01-15-2017, 01:26 PM   #3
    DougL
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    Re: Am I missing easy value on the river?

    Think the spot is close, and I'm not at all sure that someone you describe as nitty just snap shows down with 22. Maybe the combos with the 2 call to suck out on your "he can't have both top pair and the NFD" card removal thing. You're going about this correctly, taking his preflop range, removing combos that he raises flop or turn. Removing combos (if any) he donks and river, and looking for a value bet. If you're perfectly bet/folding the river because he only raises when you're screwed, then you need to win >50% when called. If you can't fold to a river raise, you need more, think the old school number was 60%.
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    Old 01-17-2017, 07:28 PM   #4
    Garwin
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    Re: Am I missing easy value on the river?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DougL View Post
    I'm not at all sure that someone you describe as nitty just snap shows down with 22.
    Yeah, I think you're right, he probably folds all small pairs up to 77 when the 8 falls on the river. The river check can't be THAT bad since we're only getting value from a few combos of Qx. I think I've taken my aggression level too far and I'm looking for spots to tone it down like this one. I would post more but the only feedback I'm getting in this forum is from you DougL, lol.

    I just read in the live section that you are considering merging the forums, that can't be a bad thing. The micro and SSSH are pretty much dead now, I suggest combining them in one online forum, that might help the traffic. I don't read the higher stakes sections often, but they seem in better shape.

    Just my 2 cents
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    Old 01-17-2017, 10:01 PM   #5
    Crispix
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    Re: Am I missing easy value on the river?

    Nice hand, I'd play it the same.

    I think I'd bet the river if the turn didn't pair the board but depends if villain calls down lightly or not.
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    Old 02-09-2017, 07:59 PM   #6
    TINT
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    Re: Am I missing easy value on the river?

    Garwin,
    This has been a helpful hand for me to read through, I need to get better at thinking like this. I consider myself quite nitty and bet this river all day - but like i say I need to get better at thinking.
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    Old 02-28-2017, 12:18 AM   #7
    joedot
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    Re: Am I missing easy value on the river?

    The only thing that matters is how much of a station the guy is. If he is a good player, and you bet bet bet you will never get called by worse on the river. Personally I think KK on an A high flop is a 2 street hand, and I would prefer to check the flop and give him the chance to bluff the turn and river, and if he doesn't start betting then I would go for value. Ike Haxton, WCGrider never bet the flop in this spot. Of course limit and no limit are different, because people station you more, but you're still going to have trouble when you overrepresent the strength of your hand. Also it isn't like you have 99 and are afraid of free cards. KK is either way ahead or way behind. I would much rather bet 99 on that board than KK.
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    Old 02-28-2017, 05:08 PM   #8
    Breich
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    Re: Am I missing easy value on the river?

    It's close but I probably bet again, the open limp from a 'nitty reg' feels like small pocket pairs, maybe weak Ax? Maybe QJ is in there too?
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    Old 03-01-2017, 06:22 AM   #9
    Garwin
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    Re: Am I missing easy value on the river?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Breich View Post
    It's close but I probably bet again, the open limp from a 'nitty reg' feels like small pocket pairs, maybe weak Ax? Maybe QJ is in there too?
    Villain in the hand was SB and he completed after an open limp. By "nitty" I really meant "timid ABC player", that's why I was concerned he had just called with Ax to the river. Against most players I think we would have heard from Ax before that.

    According to the combo counting I made earlier in this thread, I need an almost perfect read that he will just calldown Ax to the end AND will fold small PPs to a bet for checking to be correct. I think that's a lot to ask on a paired board BvB even against this player.

    I also think it's close but I hate to miss value and need to rely more on math and less on reads. I probably should have bet.
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    Old 03-01-2017, 06:44 AM   #10
    joedot
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    Re: Am I missing easy value on the river?

    So the one time you bet 3 streets and win because he called with 2nd pair and you feel great. Do you forget about all the times he either folded air on the flop that he might have bluffed with had you given him a chance. Or the times he calls you down with Ax. And if you say everyone always checkraises any Ax on that flop then they are lol terrible. That only isolates them against better aces, better hands and big draws and by the time they bet the river they are screwed.
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