Well, if you think Villain would bet any partially counterfeited flush or any straight (or even Qx) and you also think there's no way he's folding Jx or Tx (or even 2x if he has it somehow), then I guess you should trust your read and bet.

But if Villain's goal was to confuse the hell out of me, he succeeded. Maybe the turn bet was a near pointless exercise in bet-calling on a scare card with no folding equity. But if we're giving Villain more credit than that, then an attempt to "repeat" the flop action -- except with a bet/3-bet from Villain this time -- is about all that makes sense. In that case, his range seems to be two-pair and better. And, on the river, if Villain just made a house, it seems like a good play would be to attempt another bet/3-bet, hoping you just made a big flush.

So -- I don't know -- I guess once Villain checks the river you can soul-read him as having exactly JT if you want to. But personally I think I'd be confused by Villain's seemingly defensive check and would be taking my far-from-the-nuts hand to showdown, probably with a check.

He donk betting you because he afraid that you raising for a free turn, and his hands isn't good enough for a C.R the time you have something. mostly have a medium hands . Once he check the river you never going to be afraid of a C.R because that would be a a very stupid play and one that wouldn't make any sense. Knowing that you can play with stove and find out if you have more then 55% equity to make a thin value bet.

BTW a donk flop is never a super strong hands unless they donk/3 betting and it a huge leak that people make when they donk hu.

after looking at it more carefully you gonna self own yourself by value betting this river not because of a C.R. There not enough combo of hands that would call this river that you beat.

grunch

I would check the river bc he has a history of donking flushes. Obviously he was scared by that queen hitting the river but you could still be beat as he's very likely holding a spade in his hole.

I've had some AIM conversations with people about raising the turn. what do folks think about this?

do not want

he can fold and we never get the wtf call when the river bricks

nc thread nom

I just can't come up with a hand range for him with the double donk. You guys must be pulling some real leveling on each other for him to donk and decide that your flop raise was a free card play; also, the hand you were free carding got there. You seem to think he's got AK with no spade, but why does he turn that into a bluff on the flop? Textbook play is to c/r with your "too strong to 3 bet and define my hand OOP" PF hands. If he's got AK, he should c/r the turn; if you don't have the spade flush you have to bet to protect against 1 card draws.

1) he plays well
2) given the board no well played hand plays this way
3) either 1 or 2 is false

Captain R made an expert b/f vs BBB in a slightly similar spot (with less leveling). I'm not doing that here; he's already played 2 streets strangely. I'm not opening myself up for a screwfecta. If I could come up with a range of hands you beat to make a thin value bet against, we could talk about his total range (which should be nothing) and see our odds. I don't really like turning the nut trips into a bluff to drive out a AKo that is likely bluff catching.

I guess if he thinks you are an over-aggro donk vs. donks, he could have QJ, TJ, or J2. He donks hoping you'll raise with your UI overcards. He improves to 2 pair on a scary board and decides that you might take a free pull at your lone spade. On the river he decides to bluff catch with his non-FH hands. I guess QT also could be here; as the board gets more scary, he decides not to give your potential 12+ outs a free look at a river. If he has a FH, he knows that you'll go for thin value and he's pwning your expected value-bluff. With a very specific read on you, this plays might somehow explain a rational line. Given that his 2 pair hands are all counterfeit, your equity is the suck.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

26 games 0.005 secs 5,200 games/sec

Board: Qc Ts 2s Js Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { AhQd }
Hand 1: 100.000% 100.00% 00.00% 26 0.00 { TT, 22, AKs, QTs+, AKo, QTo+, Q2o }


---

44 games 0.062 secs 709 games/sec

Board: Qc Ts 2s Js Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 18 0.00 { AhQd }
Hand 1: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 26 0.00 { TT, 22, AKs, QTs+, J2s, T2s, AKo, QTo+, Q2o, J2o, T2o }

So, you're a 60/40 dog to his total range and you have no equity against his calling range. I'm going to go with check.

K9s? I don't understand. If he has any spade you're dead. His post flop action says flop drawing, turn got it made and he's very likely to cr the river I think if you're playing "tag" style. I think this board is so scarey for you that that's why I said just check er down. I agree with the others. We just want to go to sd cheaply. I'm hesitant to run an equity stove here bc I think we are wa/wb - and wb would be my assesment of this situation here at the river. Am I missing something? I'll read on to see if I am.

nh as played and i ck back riv

dude is 3betting the top of his range here all day and all night HU here (he's 24 tabling so he's playing robotic enough to pull something like this) so you can get rid of AK and TT. Also, if he's donking gutshots here he'll fire 89, K9, AJ here.

Grunch

Raise the Turn. Need information here and need to punish the lone spade flush draw. No mercy. Also, if you raise the turn, it opens the possibility of him folding to the raise. If he 3 bets the turn then call down no matter what. If he just calls your raise continue to bet the river.

kinda grunch.

very interesting spot, imo. i'd probly take b/f here over most cuz like when he donks the turn to me it kinda says "plz don't check this back w/ a FD' so maybe like JT kinda makes sense, i don't see him dbetting flop here w/ like 89/K9 so i think think razor thin value, ftw imo