villain is a fellow oregonian and MMTer. He's 15/11/2.3 over 6100 hands in my db. I give the guy huge amounts of props and respect. He's one of the few people I hate to be within two seats of because he's going to make me work. That said, onto the hand.

notes on villain: won't cap AKo oop; OL UTG CR KJ9 twotone flop; 3bet AQo MP; won't fold any piece HU; will go for thin value on the river; donked river nut flush; called CR on flop raised TT on J995 twotone turn

special note: this is a HU pot and we're both good players so we will both be going for thin value

Poker Stars $2/$4 Limit Hold'em - 10 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with Q A
7 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) Q 2 T (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls

Turn: (4.25 BB) J (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls

River: (6.25 BB) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

preflop and flop play themselves. Turn I was a bit wtf so I called although I think an argument can be made for raising here (although puke wtf if we get 3bet there), river is the utter embodiment of range polarization on villain's part and I'd love to know what people think about that spot...

That's a hand all right. Very WTF donkbet.

So much depends on how he defends, I can't imagine figuring out a decent range without knowing fold bb to steal and resteal from bb, and it's hard to guess with a 15/11. I guess by default I check cause I want to see his hand, and it's close.

I think 98 or XXss are going to be seen more often than you get a call from JT or AJ or KQ or KJ or KT or AT something like that (most of these would 3b preflop too). If you bet it's a bluff and I don't think he folds a low spade.

villain folds bb to steal 42 percent btw

I've got an ATS of 53 percent, I was playing TAGish here.

I would check behind although I am not convinced he holds the flush. If he holds a flush I would put him on a small suited connector hand, because he checked the river but was aggressive on the flop and the turn.

I think you will be called by winning hands only, therefore I see no value in raising.

what combos of hands containing 3-9 does he conceivably have here if he does have the flush and how does his postflop action back this up? Also, I'd encourage a stoving of our river equity. I ran something and it was definitely close.

hes gotta have like KQo no s always here but im not even sure he calls with it so just check behind

it's bvb and villain won't fold any pair vs me as I mentioned in my notes. Again, I ask for a balanced range of what calls us and beats us vs what calls us and we beat, then run stove. Eliminate the top of villain's range because he didn't 3bet us pre and eliminate Ks and As from villain's range because he didn't bet the river.

the chance of you getting c/r here is decent imo

Is he calling a Tx no spade with four to the flush on the board?

i just b/f the river ( i guarantee you'd have called if he bet)

he never raises less than the nutflush and you still have TRIPS! i want to SD AND get value outta them.

if he has the balls to c/r less on this super scary board? good for him and nh sir!

edit: he doesn't have a pair+flush draw or a made str when he donks the turn else he would c/r

to repeat

I was going to include that in my above statement. Does he think we are agg enough to bet a decent hand w/o spade or a weak spade?

My first instinct is to check behind. I want to show down and two going in on the river is bad for us. I don't think we can find enough value in a bet here either. His worst hand that could call would be two pair and anything else he calls with beats us.

Edit: if he will certainly go for thin value I think we get led into with Qx hands and weaker flushes and cr'ed by Ksx or Asx and FH hands. Your notes say he donked rvr'ed NF, but if he's a thinking player and knows you are, you have to consider that he varies his play especially against you.

what about AT/AJ no spade, KQ no spade. and if I'm betting this river I'm folding to a checkraise like THAT.

the turn donk by villain is bad if you're rarely checking behind with TP.

turn raise isn't good given board texture.

and I would check behind river given the donk on one of the worts turn cards in the deck...