Very cool thread idea. Really important stuff here.
Probably never. You can get him to fold pocket pairs and stuff like 98s, but it's really not worth it imo since the pot is still pretty small and those hands make up a much smaller portion of his range than the Ax/Kx/Qx hands. Advantage of bluffing this board against a much more aggressive stealer is that they have to give up with a ton of hands then and there, though.
Hmm. I'm going to say probably around 35-45% with somebody who is only going to SD 35% of the time (I play 6max). Seem pretty foldy, and again they're going to have to give up right away with a lot of hands here. If I think they're going to pick up on the fact that I'm c/r bluffing often on dry boards like this, then I'll cut down a little bit and start value raising more.
Probably around 5-10% here. People know that paired boards are great to bluff on. TBH I'm not going to c/r this board period very often since people will fire two barrels so much on boards like this. I'll c/c, c/r with most of my value range, and c/c, c/f with a lot of my non-value range. If I have a read that he'll check back a lot of turns, then I'd c/r more often since I'd also c/r my value hands on the flop...
KK3 two tone?
Less often than above. Probably 0%. People will call down way more often now with even Q hi if they can put you on a flush draw. Plus hands will peel more often if they have a backdoor.
654 mono (same suit)?
Pretty often. Against a default guy who folds a lot it's probably close to 100%. If he were trickier, though, somewhat less since I don't like getting bluffed off of my hand by Qx with a flush draw.
Not very often. Maybe 5%. Too many hands will peel this flop meaning your bluff is going to get pretty expensive. That said, this might be one type of spot that I need to open up my c/r range on, since a lot of those hands are going to have to fold the turn UI. This is something I need to mess around with in PokerRazor
Always. You get to b/3b the turn so often against Ax you're just missing a ton of value by not doing it.
Hmm. Depends on how often he bets the turn, I suppose. If he's the type of guy to fire 2 barrels with Ax as a default, then probably never. If he's the type of guy to value check with Ax as a default, then probably always.