Commerce 20. This is the sort of hand I remember seeing all the time in online micros though.

Villain has been there 3 orbits. Is obviously playing tight, but I don't think he's caught a hand yet so I don't know if he's TAG or weak-tight yet.

Hero is OTB with AsKc
Folds to Hero, who raises. SB folds, BB calls.

Flop is QhJh6d
BB bets, hero calls.
Turn 5c
BB checks, hero checks.
River Th
BB bets, hero.....?

raises...............

not sure if r/c or r/f but leaning to r/c

Personally, I'd call. I've seen this line so many times on Merge. Donk the FD, check the missed Turn, bet made Rvr. Of course, I wouldn't fold. But against a relative unknown, I would probably tend to be a bit more conservative in regard to raising.

i would raise. Because at least in micros it is more often a steal than a flush.

it's not micros...it's a-strange-guy-from-commerce-casino's hand.
And it was a jxo.

But consider if it was always one or the other, that a steal just folds (so your raise gains nothing when you're ahead), whereas a flush 3bets you (so you lose two--presuming you call--when you're behind).

I realize that it's not always a flush or a steal, and nothing else. jsia. That it's a steal more often than a flush (debatable) is not the reason to raise.

fwiw, I think antneye more or less nailed it: raise, and feel gross when you get 3bet, but call.
When he 3bets he could have AK also (practicing the never 3bet oop strat), could have K9 or even 98s (not hearts). He could also have a slowplayed set he was hoping to c/r the turn with or a set of tens. You're not always sunk to a flush if he 3bets, imo. Certainly not going to assume that readless.

i dont think a raise/fold would be that bad. villain will lay 8:1 if he does 3-Bet, and a random player (live or online) is unlikely to be bluffing or V-betting worse 1 time in 9.

snap fold if you do choose to r/f, for your image.

I think raising only makes sense if he'll fold a chop and I doubt he ever folds a chop so I'm just calling.

Really?

Did you note that 1) hero opened otb (i.e. steal situation, so hero's pf range is massive), 2) that it's HU the whole way (so things like a FD coming in are a little less scary from villain's perspective), and 3) hero checked back the turn (so he looks pretty weak)?

Seems like there'd be a TON of worse hands in villain's range that would donk here and at least call a raise HU based on how the action has played out; everything from worse str8's down to potentially as low as tp.

Meh, seems like online reasoning being applied to a live game. Vs. a tight player, I just don't think our hand is worth raise/calling vs. a flop donk/turn check/river donk line. Plus he has to call for the raise to be profitable. His made hands bet the turn and the lolobvious draw comes in on the river. Our hand has the potential to be a FD as well and I just don't see him calling a raise with a hand like KJ or whatever. A river raise looks pretty strong on this board and it seems like you're targeting a small portion of his range with it.

As someone mentioned, I think it's a win 1, lose 2 kind of thing and I just don't think we win the 1 often enough to offset the times we lose 2.

My thinking was similar to Leroy's. The problem is that while we surely beat a good portion of the villain's range, we're also value-towning ourselves against flushes, and villain's line is very consistent with a flush. Meanwhile, when we raise the river, it certainly has the flavor of either a straight or a flush, so we aren't always going to get calls from the villain.

Which does make it look a lot like a win 1 (sometimes) lose 2 situation.

So I just called.

That's entirely possible.