215 hands on BB. 33/20/Afq 44, 3-bet 12%, 3-bet from the BB vs steal 6% WtSD is 35. flop c-r 17, turn c-r 25. What notes I have on him aren't really relevant to this hand. For the most part, he plays decently.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1/$2 Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13392982

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7 A
2 folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) 3 5 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Turn: (3.3 BB) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ?

I'm not sure how BB would have played a pair on the flop. He probably knows that on this board, I'm going to be c-betting the turn a lot. As the flop is so dry, there's incentive for him to wait for the turn. But he is probably peeling this flop with a very wide range and the turn is a decent bluffing card. My hand has some showdown value and there aren't a lot of better hands that will fold. Is checking behind planning to call most rivers the better option?

I prefer to b/f and check behind river. This is a pretty peel friendly flop and I don't mind betting again and getting him to fold a K or J, maybe even T9 or something like that.

*G*

It's not a great ace-high, but it is ace-high (i.e. has SD-value in this situation). So I'll often check it back, and bluff-catch blank rivers with SD-value hands.

fwiw, I think b/f (check back river UI) is a decent option, too, since his stats indicate he'll let you know if he has much on the turn. But there's a very finite amount of 3x in his range, and I figure he'd fast-play baby pp's or 5x on this flop, and probably decent draws, too. So mostly I feel as long as he doesn't have a queen, you're in decent shape here (thus I mostly don't really want to bluff with a SD-value hand).
If I had JT here, I'd two-barrel for sure.

I think against this guy barrel bluffing is an option. I don't think this A-high wins a SD 1 in 5 times against the BB's flop check/call. I think he'll often raise pocket pairs + good draws and i'm assuming he will not peel too light. When he's 3-betting so rarely its easy for him to have strong broadway hands and better ace-highs.

so i'm either checking back and folding or betting turn and river to get folds from KJ now, and better AX later. If we barrel we should give up on some rivers that improve our kicker.

His turn c/r % is pretty high. I'd like to be balanced in these spots. I think it really depends on your image. Do you seem like the double-barreling LAGTAG type that is foldy?

Assuming you play LAG, i'd like a check on the turn against this type of player bc of how high his c/r on the turn is. I want to see a showdown with this hand because of it's value. It will get information and i won't be trapped in a hard spot where i'm forced to dump my good hand relative to the board because a thinking player sees high fold equity in this spot, typically where he can c/r bluff with ATC or semi-bluff a turned FD.

I'm inclined to call a river bet. But if your history with him shows that he doesn't bluff and makes good river v-bets, i'd prefer a fold.

I think this spot is really gameflow dependent. With just over 200 hands against each other, you don't have great reads. The turn check raise % could be skewed by variance. You probably don't have many river reads since river action is the most rare. I think bet folding is the play in a vaccum, but because of the turn cr% I'm going to use the gambit of trying to induce with a check. A good player will exploit this gambit by never bluffing, but he's not going to exploit us much in one hand. I also think you'll win a decent % of the time when the turn and river go check check, and sometimes you'll improve on the river where you can get a value bet in. I might fold on a K or J river.

I don't know Hero's steal percentage, but if it's as wide as even Winning in Tough Hold 'em Games recommends (and Hero's range may be wider still), then Hero is going to be holding a lot of whiffs at this point on this hard-to-hit board. Or he will if we define A7 as a "whiff," in any case. By my quick math, a Hero with a WITHG stealing range will have no pair (aside from the one on the board) and no draw about 57% of the time.

I don't know how fully aware of this Villain might be, and I don't know exactly what strategy he might implement if he is aware how frequently Hero has missed the board. But the stats say Villain has been doing a lot of turn checkraising recently. And, meanwhile, we have a hand with decent showdown value.

So if I'm betting the turn, I'm probably doing it with the idea of calling down a checkraise. Perhaps this is a reckless approach at the 1/2 level (and I have no recent firsthand experience since I haven't played online since Black Friday). But I do think we should at least be aware that we're frequently going to have a mere high-card hand at this point, and it should cross our minds that Villain may be aware of this also and might try to do something to take advantage of this.

If you bet ott it makes it (more) difficult for him to call you with six live outs to beat you otr.