Quote:
Originally Posted by Priptonite
How man theaters near you were showing The Artist? I thought the whole point of the prop bet was that while the film may not be super popular among the public, you think that the Academy will recognize its greatness.
I thought it would be and was disliked by the reviewers as I stated originally. But I didn't think it would bomb so fast with the public. 100 million dollar budget movie disapears from theaters in under 3 weeks from opening. Now a bet I thought was slightly -EV or nuetral EV, is clearly big time -EV and I no longer want to risk my money on it.
I wouldn't bet USC -3 this week Vrs Norte Dame the line was -3 last week and there qb got hurt and the line is know ND-6.
The movie bombing totally with the public to me moves the line and I no longer want the odds I stated when this movie was at every theater in America. Just because the reviewers disliked it, CA could have had a decent ticket sales record and I thought it would. It is clear it will not even be a top 50 box office grossing movie this year. It is at 90 at time of post. To me that was not clear 2 weeks ago. As another $20 million in ticket sales bumps it into top 40-50 grossing movies this year. 40 million more makes it a top 25 film of the year.
I was wrong offering the bet, but now that the dust has settled and this has been pulled I don't think 10-1 would be a fair price on my end. To bad no one took me up on this right away as I was basically giving money away. With my prop bet history in the sports betting forum it would have not been the first time I have made a dumb prop bet and lost.
Still think CA is the best movie I have seen. Obviously everyone from the public to reviewers disagree so maybe I shouldn't be offering up prop bets on movies anytime soon.