The way this game works is you pick sports props every day and try to build a really long streak. If you have the longest streak, you win $25,000. If you have the most wins on the month you get $5,000.

I intended to play for most wins this month, but I messed up today. I should be tied with one other for #1 on the most wins leaderboard instead of 10th.

What happened is I was going to pick Georgia softball (+100) at noon to beat FSU and then pick Auburn softball (-160) to beat UCLA, but I changed my mind and picked the SF Giants game (-225) thinking that the baseball game wouldn't last three hours with the new rules and I could get Auburn in with a more comfortable noontime win (Giants over Braves instead of UGA over FSU).

So picking the Giants game, although it extended my streak, cost me an extra win I should have had.

I ask you. Should I just try to build the longest streak and win $25,000 now that I've missed out on a pick and it's bothering me???? I think if I went after monthly wins, I could win it because I know when the odds will hold and when something's a trap meant to dupe the public into losing its $$$.

If I go after longest streak, I'm only going to make one more pick today (United States women -350 to beat Japan). Ideally, I'd like to pick the Indians (-156) over the Royals, who are way over their O/U wins projection right now and then pick the USWNT, but I can't possibly get both in.


What do you say? I'm tilting obviously. Longest streak? It pays out five times more and I'm confident in myself.

Here's my entry:
http://streak.espn.go.com/en/entryStats?entryID=5441042

Robbie,

Why don't you just bet sports and get RICH?

1. Yes, you are tilting. It's June 2nd FFS

2. Quit playing this and get a minimum wage job if your primary objective is making money.

amen

Hi Babs!

Even though I'm relatively good at it, it's not that easy. I lost a lost of money when I was just getting my feet wet gambling in college. Over $35k actually through sports betting and online poker. I wasn't wise about my sports betting, but I've learned.


Thing is, if I were to bet sports now, I'd just dump a ton of money on sure outcomes. Yes, it'll feel great to bet heavily on a -157 outcome like CLE beating the Royals tonight, but I notice that in such games there's always a moment where the outcome hangs in the balance. Like Cleveland will fall behind 2-0 or will give up a 5 run lead so the -1.5 run payout (win by 2+ runs (+140)) doesn't hit.

So that's why if I were to do it, it'd be the less profitable route of dumping money on things that you don't have to sweat out (e.g. Cleveland Cavaliers -500 to win the Eastern Conference). Sure there are -200 or less odds that hit comfortably, but I noticed that those are normally games or events that the public is heavily on the underdog (like the Broncos when they lost to Seattle in the Super Bowl).

Robbie,

I don't understand. Why don't you just bet on those sure things you don't have to sweat and print money every day?

If you don't look at the world in probabilities you're doomed from the start. Chasing steam isn't an option if you're risk averse about getting paid and arb'ing isn't an option for anything beyond peanuts.

Post in the sports betting forum if you want help, mainly just read the FAQ there over and over and then post in the LC thread if you have specific questions after - they admittedly prbly won't be answered beyond conceptually though.

I live in NJ and I don't trust online sportsbooks these days. If I lived in Vegas OR (and I really hope this happens some day) they legalized sports betting in NJ, I'd be at a casino every day placing big wagers on the locks.

Dodger,

You seem to be confused. Some things are True Locks, and probability/odds on those things doesn't matter. When you have Sure Things, you can, as El Diablo points out, just print money every day. Sometimes you might lose for a day, but never for a week.

oh

Doesn't sound like you're a gambler but instead a true locksmith.

The lack of not trusting any sites is indicative of the former, the latter is self-evident.

Of course you're right, you always are.

BUT I knew of a fantastic professional capper named nimadimus and he made sure not to lose on any single day, odds be dammed; that guy would pull out all the stops. Turned the books into a couple of ate up hamburgers.

Come to think of it though, this is true.
Is it worth it to play this free game and, if you win, your reward for essentially hitting a 20-30 win parlay is $25,000 (who knows? 18,000 when taxes are taken out?)???

Have you thought about selling your top picks? I hear this can be quite lucrative.

Good point.

Is it worth it to play this free game? Tough question.

Robbie,

Let's bet $1,000 on whether you win either the $5k or $25k prize.

Uh no way lol. I might make that bet if I were going for the $5k, but I'm too mad at myself not maximizing my opportunities, so I'm going to go for the $25k prize and probably end up with $0.

Robbie ignore the haters, follow your dreams streak for the cash bro.

Think of how awesome you are going to feel when you are using Ben Franklin's for toilet paper, going into the all you can eat buffet and making it rain on all those fat bitches.

Reach for the stars Robbie, nothing can stop you now!

locksmiths itt, nice

Lock it up, it's all this dude knows.

Thanks, brotha. I took the Indians as my next pick. I want that $25k!

Robbie,

Are you gonna throw ESPN's leg on the table and loosen your belt, or what?

I'll book your action. I can get people to vouch for me, or we can set up some kind of escrow. PM me if you are interested.

Robbie,

How about if I gave you 2:1 odds on winning the $5k?

That would turn that into a $7k potential win!