Reunion Island is like shark attack central usually on surfers. Pretty sure I read no one had gone out surfing at this one spot for 2 months because of sharks then the first kid who decided the waves were worth the chance didn't even get a wave before a shark got his arm.

I think I saw the same thing. They have divers with spear guns guard the beach. Kid went one day with the guards there and was fine, went next day without and was immediately killed.

Black box is good for up to 2 years, right? Odds they find it now?

This has zero effect on the chance of finding the black box. It is where the plane went down, somewhere deep at the bottom of the Indian Ocean, a long way from where this debris was found.

Can't they look at the currents since then and get a more accurate idea of where the plane went down?

I don't believe so. They tried to predict where the debris might wash up based on where they believed the plane went down and this falls within that range, so it doesn't change anything really.

I don't think people grasp the amount of time passed and distance travelled between when/where the plane crashed and when/where the debris was found.

Aside from a really remote chance of finding something like explosive residue this really iant going to contribute much to the investigation. Not that that stops news programs from playing up he incredible significance of the debris.

You're forgetting they hacked INMARSAT to show faulty data to cover up shooting down the plane.

thread has gone full ******, i cant even tell who is trolling who anymore

How the **** would bodies still be floating out there? It's been a year and a half...sharks have nom nom'd them all up.

It is kind of weird none of the bodies that were floating around earlier were found on one of those beaches, it would surely be obvious to the person finding them that something was wrong.

Did Malaysia Airlines text all the aggrieved family members that plane parts have been found?

Bumpity bump.

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...4d9cabfe3e72fd

Sounds strongly like Malaysia covered up the evidence against the pilot, EgyptAir 990 style. Lol malaysia.

Still no sign? Amazing how a multimillion dollar piece of equipment with advanced communication technology can disappear.

Not to mention the ESA's onboard with embedded chips.

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I mean it's sad when emotional support animals die, but there were a ton more real people to morn.

The joint governmental search was suspended in January last year, so nothing has been happening for a year.

A US private company is going to run another search. I'm actually pretty bullish on the chances of this search finding the plane. In August, Australia's peak scientific organization used French satellite photos apparently showing debris plus drift analysis to identify a new, quite small search area. They said they were pretty confident in their conclusions. The search area is at 35 latitude, which neatly fits with a bunch of debris from the plane being found in Eastern Africa and none being found in Australia. The prevailing current at 35 latitude is westerly, whereas at all surrounding latitudes it is easterly.

All this seems very logical and the new search is going to cover an area the size of Vermont that has not previously been searched. Feels to me like it's close to evens to find the plane. Unfortunately, even if found, the FDR might not be recoverable after so long on the ocean floor.

Edit: The company think they have an 85% chance of finding the plane and are putting their money where their mouth is. If they don't find it, they don't get paid.

In other news, Australian Danica Weeks, who lost her husband on MH370, is suing Boeing in the US for.... something. She claims there was a fault with the plane, but as far as I can tell she doesn't even claim to know what it is.

Boeing are supposed to prove a negative, apparently. I assume the lawsuit (assuming it even exists) will be thrown out for being frivolous. This is after Weeks says that the Malaysian PM's wife said to her a month after the incident that it "was very horrible that someone would do that to 238 innocent people".

clearly she was talking about the pilot, no?

Yeah. I have no idea why this lady is convinced it was something wrong with the plane. As far as I can tell she has no basis for it. There's a cognitive bias (I don't know if it has a name) where people feel that important events must have important explanations. It would be emotionally easier for her to believe that her husband died because of a tangible problem, which she can correct, rather than that he died because a seemingly normal person woke up one day and decided to murder 200+ people. The human brain is not designed to handle that idea. Look at the Vegas shooting though. I said at the time we'd probably never get a motive and now 3+ months later we still have no clear motive.

Chris, so is it your inclination that the pilot dove the plane into the ocean? I hope you don't take it as prodding, I'm generally curious as I always thought it was likely a malfunction. Man this situation has been so trippy.

The 777 is one of the safest airliners to have ever flown, there has never been a fatal incident resulting from mechanical failure (unless the Malaysian airlines incident was mechanical). So it seems unlikely, especially given the odd disappearance. Why would the plane keep flying and the pilots not signal mayday?

That is interesting about the private US marine company. Starts this week. I read they will earn $70 million if they find it.

Might be worth spending a few million tops. It has been reported that governments have spent $200 million so far on the search.

I'm not sure it has a name either, but it's an (often false) implication of what is known in foreign-policy analysis as the 'rational actor model' -- i.e. the assumption that no one ever does anything crazy or random. Conspiracy theory often rests on the same assumption.

In fact it looks as though the captain pulled a Germanwings, but in such a calculated and elaborate way that his guilt could not be easily proved. An accidental cause is unlikely because of the carefully-threaded flight path which ensured minimal radar coverage.

Yeah I have a zillion posts ITT pushing this theory. To my knowledge there is no other theory which explains the facts. The idea that the pilot would do this is hard for people to grasp, but probably became less so after the Germanwings incident. The captain attempting to conceal his actions also has precedent in SilkAir 185.

Weirdly, they get less money the quicker they find it, which sort of makes sense, but leads to some strange incentives.

Why don’t you think it was a terrorist like 9/11 that did this? That seems more likely than an experienced pilot. Or at least a non-zero chance. The Germanwings pilot was mentally ill.

I also was not aware you can totally disconnect from radar/tracking. Is something like this repeatable?

Well, I guess the theory behind the contract is that you want the company to continue looking and you incentivize them for not giving up. It will be interesting how they manage this process. They might spend $100 million to get that $70 million, because all that matters is last $1.