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Old 03-17-2014, 07:03 PM   #1621
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

So Malaysian Airlines now say that ACARS and the transponder may have been turned off at the same time:

Quote:
But Ahmad Jauhari Yahya, the chief executive of Malaysia Airlines, said at a news conference early Monday evening that the Acars system had worked normally at 1:07 but then failed to send its next regularly scheduled update at 1:37 a.m., and could have been disabled at any point between those two times. “We don’t know when the Acars system was switched off,” he said.

Mr. Ahmad Jauhari said the co-pilot’s verbal signoff was given by radio at 1:19 a.m., and the aircraft’s transponder, which communicates with ground-based radar, ceased working about two minutes later.

The new account appeared to reopen the possibility that the aircraft was operating normally until 1:21 a.m., and that the two communications systems failed or were deactivated at the same time, not at separate points.
Also, they say that it was the co-pilot who spoke the final words "all right, good night".

I don't think the information about the timing makes it any less likely this was piracy. The multiple turns, the satellite link continuing to operate, etc, would still seem to make it impossible this was a fire or anything of that nature.

I think the information that the transponder was turned off two minutes after that last voice message implicates one of the pilots. Everything was apparently OK in the cockpit, and then in the space of two minutes someone fought their way in and turned off the transponder? At a time that just happened to be the ideal time to quietly go missing from ATC screens? Doesn't seem likely.
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Old 03-17-2014, 07:04 PM   #1622
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

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Originally Posted by thethethe View Post
People who read Rolling Stone are way too cool to use Facebook.
No, there's some weird stuff going on with those counters.

For example, the Rolling Stone story on Mick Jagger's girlfriend being found dead is currently FB liked 4.3k times, retweeted 573 times, and +1's just 4 times. Seems impossible for a story to be retweeted almost 500 times without a single FB like. About as probable as Courtney Love solving the MH370 mystery -- BOOM!
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Old 03-17-2014, 07:14 PM   #1623
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

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I think the information that the transponder was turned off two minutes after that last voice message implicates one of the pilots. Everything was apparently OK in the cockpit, and then in the space of two minutes someone fought their way in and turned off the transponder? At a time that just happened to be the ideal time to quietly go missing from ATC screens? Doesn't seem likely.
Agree absolutely. I'm going with pilots. Since the captain seems like a good guy and we don't know anything about the FO, I think that's who the investigation should focus on.
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Old 03-17-2014, 07:35 PM   #1624
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

If I got this right, this is the young lady (Nadira Raml) that the MH3370 co-pilot had dated for years and was planning to marry. She is also a pilot. She looks like a good reason to stay alive.

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Old 03-17-2014, 07:38 PM   #1625
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

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I know absolutely nothing about military radar, but even with that total lack of knowledge I find it a bit far fetched that in an area we guard heavily we are simply relying on transponders to identify objects in the sky, and that our technology is unable to tell that there is 2 giant planes in the sky and not just one. Or that it could simply just break off and land on some taliban airstrip with out our knowledge
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I dunno, in Top Gun there were notable problems with ID'ing the correct number of enemy bogies!
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more serious answer from a military POV - I think the difference between 1 and 2 planes wouldn't be critical? like either way it's important. and I would think 5 or 10 would look way different than 1 or 2, etc
Without knowing exactly what frequencies we're dealing with for these radar systems, radio waves in radar systems can be as long as 100 m. If you're dealing with that sort of wavelength, you're always going to have a hard time resolving the difference between 1 plane and 2.
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Old 03-17-2014, 07:40 PM   #1626
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

Just when i thoguht i had erased any trace of The Event from my memory this goes and happens.
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Old 03-17-2014, 07:40 PM   #1627
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

I'm grasping at straws here obviously.
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Old 03-17-2014, 07:56 PM   #1628
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

Here's my theory. Explosive decompression, with whatever caused the explosion taking out the transponders (and maybe the radio) at the same time. Pilots are on emergency oxygen, turn around and try and take the plane back to the nearest airport... Run out of oxygen... Ghost plane scenario into the Indian Ocean where it crashes.

Questions (to woxof and others)

1. Where are these transponders located? Could a single event cause decompression and damage to the transponders at the same time? What about other radio systems? Are they all in the same place? Do they use any of the same components?

2. How does autopilot work? Someone mentions something about altitude being programmed in separately?

I.e. Pilots manually set course for return airport, set autopilot direction, lower altitude to a safe pressure, something goes wrong, they go back onto autopilot and the autopilot takes them back up to original height where they all die.
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Old 03-17-2014, 08:02 PM   #1629
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

Ok, even simpler theory. Scratch that last part. Explosive decompression, pilots pass out due to the effects of the bends, autopilot just keeps them going north until they crash...

More questions.

1. I assume that a big pressure change could cause the pilots to pass out? if it was the cockpit which blew out, they could even get sucked out of the hole, Hollywood movie style.

2. Autopilot... Is this plausible? I.e. With no further instruction, the plane just keeps flying on that arc until it crashes?

This all assumes that a bunch of the info we have been given is just rubbish. I.e. The altitude changes, etc,
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Old 03-17-2014, 08:08 PM   #1630
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
So Malaysian Airlines now say that ACARS and the transponder may have been turned off at the same time:



Also, they say that it was the co-pilot who spoke the final words "all right, good night".

I don't think the information about the timing makes it any less likely this was piracy. The multiple turns, the satellite link continuing to operate, etc, would still seem to make it impossible this was a fire or anything of that nature.

I think the information that the transponder was turned off two minutes after that last voice message implicates one of the pilots. Everything was apparently OK in the cockpit, and then in the space of two minutes someone fought their way in and turned off the transponder? At a time that just happened to be the ideal time to quietly go missing from ATC screens? Doesn't seem likely.
Possible but very unlikely someone could've already been in cockpit at time of last transmission. I think this is further unlikely because of the casual signoff. Also lean towards the pilots because of that timing. Even if hijackers had this idea that they'd hijack between ATCs it would be so hard to get that timing down!

I think rugby's theory is definitely possible.

If it were a pilot I'd still say the captain is more likely. The younger guy just seems like he would be less likely to pull off such a feat technically, would be more likely that captain could request younger to leave to do something than vice versa, and psychologically the captain is being portrayed as someone who is a "thinker" that could lead to deep resentment and general anger, while the younger one seems quite normal and happy.
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Old 03-17-2014, 08:12 PM   #1631
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

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Originally Posted by rugby View Post
Ok, even simpler theory. Scratch that last part. Explosive decompression, pilots pass out due to the effects of the bends, autopilot just keeps them going north until they crash...

More questions.

1. I assume that a big pressure change could cause the pilots to pass out? if it was the cockpit which blew out, they could even get sucked out of the hole, Hollywood movie style.

2. Autopilot... Is this plausible? I.e. With no further instruction, the plane just keeps flying on that arc until it crashes?

This all assumes that a bunch of the info we have been given is just rubbish. I.e. The altitude changes, etc,
There were supposedly specific directions chosen by the plane computer after the transponder went off, which lead to the claims of someone skilled being in control. This could also have been an oxygen deprived pilot frantically programming something in.

Also I'm not even sure that specific waypoints were chosen or if they were just flying in those directions.

They did not fly along the arcs, the arcs represent vicinity of last satellite ping received. But yes, I do think autopilot could've kept flying. See the Payne Stewart crash as an example.
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Old 03-17-2014, 08:19 PM   #1632
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

I'm pretty sure there's no possible way a pilot of a 777 could ever become oxygen deprived unless the oxygen delivery system itself malfunctioned, or of course he did something stupid and failed to don his mask. They dont have cheesy little overhead oxygen masks like the passengers, they have military style fighter pilot masks that sit right next to their seats. I'm sure pilots are also trained to become aware of the effects of oxygen deprivation, not that it would matter since they have a couple of warning devices in the cockpit alerting them when cabin pressure is getting too low well before suffering hypoxia.
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Old 03-17-2014, 08:21 PM   #1633
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Just when i thoguht i had erased any trace of The Event from my memory this goes and happens.
Lol so true
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Old 03-17-2014, 08:28 PM   #1634
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

There are two types of radar ATC (and the military uses) - primary and secondary - a decent explanation is here.

Primary radar essentially attempts to detect anything of substance in the air - obviously their main objective is planes, but it also picks up flocks of birds and weather (thunderclouds and heavy rain for example). The reason stealth planes are made the way they are is to not get seen by primary radar.

Secondary radar just picks up airplanes' transponder codes and ATC receives information depending on what options are selected by the pilot on the transponder. Pilots can choose what information does and doesn't go out (they can disable altitude readouts for example). Stealth planes don't have to dodge secondary radar because they (hopefully) have their transponder off.

As some mentioned, you could "piggyback" on another aircraft by just turning your transponder off and the radar will pick up your two planes as one. Of course occasionally they may show up as 2 targets, but if they're quite far away they are from the radar tower chances are it comes up as one. You see it with military formations all the time. With a large plane it is less likely of course, but still possible. Additionally, if you're flying below a particular altitude radar might not even pick you up.

You would be surprised at how much stuff radar could possibly miss, and how much actually goes on in the air. There are weapons controllers covering the entire US (and Canada - good ol' NORAD) that deal with Russian and other 'bogey' aircraft all the time. Obviously you just don't hear about it...
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Old 03-17-2014, 08:28 PM   #1635
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Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

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Originally Posted by sharpyetblunt View Post
Just when i thoguht i had erased any trace of The Event from my memory this goes and happens.
+1
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