Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
I still think pilot suicide/hijack is most likely, other explanations are in play now though assuming that report is true.
I don't think it changes the possible outcomes very much. I never put a ton of weight on the programmed in course change since its still not too clear to me what exactly they were saying was transmitted, there have been mixed reports, and programming in an alternate/back-up/emergency landing site doesn't seem too non-standard.
Really, the only thing that would actually increase the accident probability for me would be a knowledgeable engineer explaining that the location of the systems that 'failed' was such that it could be likely they all failed without fatally damaging the plane so that it could continue to fly for hours more on autopilot.
I also suspect that its impossible for a breaker being pulled to stop the data being transmitted to the satellite but not stop the pinging. Pulling a breaker implies to me that you're removing all power from that device - and so its not going to keep pinging.
The type of 'damage' that we know had to have happened + lack of communication from pilots about an emergency + course change + plane continuing to fly on autopilot for hours is very damning. Everything else (preprogramming, computer simulator, timing of last message, etc.) is just sort of secondary to me.