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Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board.

03-17-2014 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vishnu
It has, and even W0X0F didn't disapprove this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by W0X0F
Sounds like something right out of a Tom Clancy novel. At the risk of throwing fuel on the conspiracy fire, I'll say that it's my understanding that you could fly formation close to another plane and thus escape detection. In military formation flying in the U.S., I'm pretty sure that it's standard for all but the lead plane to have the transponder off. This is probably just to de-clutter the controller's screen.

What I don't know is how close the two aircraft have to be so that they present as one target.
Interesting theory, but yeah it's really a bit James Bond super-villain style. An since we're already there: W0X0F how realistic would it be that the culprits were hid as stowaways (with the help of ground personnel obv.) prior to the flight? E.g. 2 armed persons working with an insider in the cabin crew?
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vishnu
How close does a plane need to fly though to turn into a single blip? This blog doesn't really specify. Seems to me the turbulence created by flying that close would make for a very challenging situation for the pilot. There is at least one known instance of turbulence causing pilot error and leading to a crash http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America...nes_Flight_587
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 05:22 PM
I know absolutely nothing about military radar, but even with that total lack of knowledge I find it a bit far fetched that in an area we guard heavily we are simply relying on transponders to identify objects in the sky, and that our technology is unable to tell that there is 2 giant planes in the sky and not just one. Or that it could simply just break off and land on some taliban airstrip with out our knowledge
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 05:30 PM
The western "tailgating to India" route is implausible since it is in direct conflict with the "two arc", north or south, estimated flight paths.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alobar
I know absolutely nothing about military radar, but even with that total lack of knowledge I find it a bit far fetched that in an area we guard heavily we are simply relying on transponders to identify objects in the sky, and that our technology is unable to tell that there is 2 giant planes in the sky and not just one. Or that it could simply just break off and land on some taliban airstrip with out our knowledge
The theory seems like a very far reach, of course. However, I'm not sure what you mean by "our technology". Although I don't know the air defense situation in Afghanistan, it isn't obvious to me that the US military is patrolling the sky for airliners at 35,000' flying through designated air corridors. Not like a Taliban Air Force fleet of bombers is possible, and there is an airport in Kabul in which civil and Afghani Air Force personnel might be expected to serve that mission. In which case, reliance on transponders may not be so outlandish. As for breaking off and landing at a Taliban "airstrip", that's a different animal than cruising along at altitude slightly behind a registered flight plan. I think it's fair to assume a 777 landing in Afghanistan would draw more attention than one overflying Afghanistan. Don't know India's posture, either, but wouldn't surprise me if it was less than airtight.

Edit: I should have added, the theory doesn't depend on technology being "unable to tell that there is 2 giant planes in the sky and not just one" but rather air traffic control being unalerted to use available technology to look closer to whether there is two distinct radar returns even though one transponder.

Last edited by Vishnu; 03-17-2014 at 05:41 PM.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alobar
I know absolutely nothing about military radar, but even with that total lack of knowledge I find it a bit far fetched that in an area we guard heavily we are simply relying on transponders to identify objects in the sky, and that our technology is unable to tell that there is 2 giant planes in the sky and not just one. Or that it could simply just break off and land on some taliban airstrip with out our knowledge
I dunno, in Top Gun there were notable problems with ID'ing the correct number of enemy bogies!
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 05:37 PM
more serious answer from a military POV - I think the difference between 1 and 2 planes wouldn't be critical? like either way it's important. and I would think 5 or 10 would look way different than 1 or 2, etc
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 05:38 PM
What Pilots Think About The Crazy New Theory That The Missing Malaysia Jet Used Another Jet To Hide


Quote:
Originally Posted by business insider
We asked Michael G. Fortune, a retired pilot who now works as an aviation consultant and expert witness, if that would be possible. After a lengthy pause, he gave us a skeptical "maybe." It would depend on what kind of radar equipment the Singapore 777 had on board, he said, and would require some serious aviation skill to find and stay behind the plane.

Doug Moss, a former test pilot and aircraft accident investigator, was unconvinced. "It sounds totally crazy," he told us, adding, "I see where the guy is coming from." It's possible in theory, he said. Large military planes can fly in formation, and there's no reason one 777 couldn't closely follow another.

"The hard part in practicality is, how's the guy gonna find another airplane," and especially a specific plane, headed to the right part of the world? Moss asked.
I would think that if the current acting pilot of the missing plane does not have close formation flying experience (e.g. Blue Angels or equivalent) it would be a dodgy proposition. Most pilots practice staying far away from other planes, not staying close.

I think the treadmill theory is most likely since we haven't detected any volcano eruptions
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by funkyj
I would think that if the current acting pilot of the missing plane does not have close formation flying experience (e.g. Blue Angels or equivalent) it would be a dodgy proposition.
I'm not sure which theory is crazier: (1) MH370 tagged behind another 777 across India and Afghanistan, or (2) a 777 pilot needs "Blue Angels or equivalent" experience to try and follow another large airliner.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokerlogist
The western "tailgating to India" route is implausible since it is in direct conflict with the "two arc", north or south, estimated flight paths.
These arcs aren't flight paths. At least as I understand it they are the possible end-points of whatever path the plane might have taken.



This is based on the last ping, and I guess as well on the ping's signal strength and the antenna inclination of the satellite.

Last edited by Morphismus; 03-17-2014 at 06:13 PM.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 05:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokerlogist
The western "tailgating to India" route is implausible since it is in direct conflict with the "two arc", north or south, estimated flight paths.
Those are not flight paths, they're approximate final locations of the plane (at some point along 1 of the 2 arcs)
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by #Thinman
i dont understand why people keep insisting on this being the work of aliens, as if it is some sort of foregone conclusion that there was more then one involved.
Don't you watch movies? They always travel in packs.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 06:21 PM
can't wait for this movie to come out.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 06:22 PM
welp, looks like its been found

they found it
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 06:25 PM
I think they will have a very rough idea of flight path though. Assuming every hour that the plane pinged the satellite you have the approximate arc that the plane was in at that time and can overlap them.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 06:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alobar
welp, looks like its been found

they found it
As of right now, that story has been retweeted 427 times, Google +1'd 7 times, and Facebook liked...

Spoiler:
0 times !?!?

Doesn't add up. I think this is an even more mysterious conspiracy.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 06:40 PM
No way a 777 lands in Afghanistan and the US doesn't find out about it. Even if the Coalition forces didn't see it, a local would have snitched by now just to get a paycheck.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chisness
Those are not flight paths, they're approximate final locations of the plane (at some point along 1 of the 2 arcs)
Yeah, it started out as a big circle, then they eliminated parts of the circle, like the whole left part because it's too far away. Then they erased the part around Malaysia , I guess because they think there radar woukd have picked it up, so you end up with 2 arcs remaining.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vishnu
As of right now, that story has been retweeted 427 times, Google +1'd 7 times, and Facebook liked...

Spoiler:
0 times !?!?

Doesn't add up. I think this is an even more mysterious conspiracy.
People who read Rolling Stone are way too cool to use Facebook.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 06:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thethethe
People who read Rolling Stone are way too old to use Facebook.
fyp
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 07:03 PM
So Malaysian Airlines now say that ACARS and the transponder may have been turned off at the same time:

Quote:
But Ahmad Jauhari Yahya, the chief executive of Malaysia Airlines, said at a news conference early Monday evening that the Acars system had worked normally at 1:07 but then failed to send its next regularly scheduled update at 1:37 a.m., and could have been disabled at any point between those two times. “We don’t know when the Acars system was switched off,” he said.

Mr. Ahmad Jauhari said the co-pilot’s verbal signoff was given by radio at 1:19 a.m., and the aircraft’s transponder, which communicates with ground-based radar, ceased working about two minutes later.

The new account appeared to reopen the possibility that the aircraft was operating normally until 1:21 a.m., and that the two communications systems failed or were deactivated at the same time, not at separate points.
Also, they say that it was the co-pilot who spoke the final words "all right, good night".

I don't think the information about the timing makes it any less likely this was piracy. The multiple turns, the satellite link continuing to operate, etc, would still seem to make it impossible this was a fire or anything of that nature.

I think the information that the transponder was turned off two minutes after that last voice message implicates one of the pilots. Everything was apparently OK in the cockpit, and then in the space of two minutes someone fought their way in and turned off the transponder? At a time that just happened to be the ideal time to quietly go missing from ATC screens? Doesn't seem likely.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thethethe
People who read Rolling Stone are way too cool to use Facebook.
No, there's some weird stuff going on with those counters.

For example, the Rolling Stone story on Mick Jagger's girlfriend being found dead is currently FB liked 4.3k times, retweeted 573 times, and +1's just 4 times. Seems impossible for a story to be retweeted almost 500 times without a single FB like. About as probable as Courtney Love solving the MH370 mystery -- BOOM!
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
I think the information that the transponder was turned off two minutes after that last voice message implicates one of the pilots. Everything was apparently OK in the cockpit, and then in the space of two minutes someone fought their way in and turned off the transponder? At a time that just happened to be the ideal time to quietly go missing from ATC screens? Doesn't seem likely.
Agree absolutely. I'm going with pilots. Since the captain seems like a good guy and we don't know anything about the FO, I think that's who the investigation should focus on.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 07:35 PM
If I got this right, this is the young lady (Nadira Raml) that the MH3370 co-pilot had dated for years and was planning to marry. She is also a pilot. She looks like a good reason to stay alive.

Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote
03-17-2014 , 07:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alobar
I know absolutely nothing about military radar, but even with that total lack of knowledge I find it a bit far fetched that in an area we guard heavily we are simply relying on transponders to identify objects in the sky, and that our technology is unable to tell that there is 2 giant planes in the sky and not just one. Or that it could simply just break off and land on some taliban airstrip with out our knowledge
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
I dunno, in Top Gun there were notable problems with ID'ing the correct number of enemy bogies!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
more serious answer from a military POV - I think the difference between 1 and 2 planes wouldn't be critical? like either way it's important. and I would think 5 or 10 would look way different than 1 or 2, etc
Without knowing exactly what frequencies we're dealing with for these radar systems, radio waves in radar systems can be as long as 100 m. If you're dealing with that sort of wavelength, you're always going to have a hard time resolving the difference between 1 plane and 2.
Malaysia Airlines 777 Disappears: 239 on board. Quote

      
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