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mbillie, you've made some good arguments, but I think most of us have trouble with your attitude that it's a slamdunk and a bat is pretty much useless as a weapon.
You keep saying IF the bat misses with the first swing, etc. Well, what if it didn't? You act like there would be not much effect on the knife wielder. But that's just silly.
MAYBE the knife is the best choice, but your credibility suffers when you completely discount the bat as a lethal weapon.
Alright point taken... I mean obviously a bat is an excellent weapon and I did say earlier, in any sort of actual real life confrontation I think a bat is 100x better than a knife. But even if you land a blow solidly with a bad to the ribs, etc... I just don't see it being enough, in an actual fight to the death.
Also, I'd say that the combat skill of the opponents affects it... for example, with two completely untrained individuals, it's close to even or possibly advantage bat. As the combat skill and experience increases the knife gains more and more advantage, because with combat experience comes ability to close distance and deflect blows (which is all that's needed to get past the initial range of the bat).
And definitely if you land a solid blow, you're going to do some serious damage. You might even break an arm. But how quickly can you repeat powerful, effective batswings? I feel like maybe 1 every second or two? I mean it really doesn't take much time to cover the distance necessary to severely reduce the effectiveness of the bat.
Also to the people saying that hitting someone with the bat will slow them down: how? The blow is coming from the side, if the knife charger has momentum forward it's unlikely that even a devastating bat strike is going to stop them completely. It might stun someone a bit, but it's also not like getting blindsided... being prepared/expecting to get slugged makes a big difference.