hilary clinton is a good pick imo. id say the odds of some nutjob offing her if she wins the election at about 85%.

The scoring is 100 minus the age of the person, so you don't want really, really old people because even if you're right you're only getting 4 or 5 points.

Courtney Love
Ariel Sharon (dude is in a coma)
Tom Sizemore
Marion Barry
Liza Minelli

but if they don't die, and a lot of people on OP's original list are not going to die next year, they are worth 0. and you need some sure points.

No, because the winner of the pool is extremely likely to be someone with > 20 (and I'd say likely > 50) points. So its better to have a chance at winning then a sure thing of finishing in the middle.

This is a game where you want to embrace high variance. A respectable score based on 90 year olds won't let you win. Sure you're guaranteed points, but not enough points to mean anything. So instead you take a shot with high variance people (younger people that are less likely to die, but if they do are worth a lot) so that you have a chance of actually winning.

Besides, I think you can find lots of middle-age people that are likely to die by looking at who is sick.

How about Magic Johnson, he is reasonably young, and he is HIV positive. That has to catch up with him eventually right?

Magic is functionally NOT HIV positive at this point based on his T-cell count (unless this has changed recently). If and when he starts to die, we'll likely see it comming.

Yeah.

HIV patients if caught early enough and treated properly have a life expectancy of 30+ years after contracting the disease. Magic is a bad choice.

Abe Vigoda

Yes he is still alive.

Verne Troyer. He's in really bad health from what I hear.

This is pretty good one. Dwarfism causes all kinds of issues with internal organs and lowers life expectancy. If he is still a drunkard like he appeared to be on the Surreal Life, then he's probably not in the greatest of shape.

Nobody's suggested that Matusow might "pull an Ungar."

Also don't forget about Johnny Knoxville or Bam Margera.

They do some relentlessly stupid ****.

Bill Cosby, 70. Smoker.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Kabila - Father assasinated. Next in line? Actually, I think any African head of state in a warring country would be a solid pick.

Jack LaLanne

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_LaLanne

Horrible choice. Jack is going to outlive most of OOT.

Just saw that Stephen Stills cancer has returned. Michale J Fox might be a decent wild card. Also, Stephan Hawking might warrant some consideration.

I thought about him when I was watching a show on primordial dwarves last night on TLC.