Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCroShow
great read dude, I haven't considered the box office recognition and the politics that must go behind that. Martha Marcy May Marlene pulled in a whopping $2.9m domestic. I'm guessing around 100% of all casual movie goers would be all WTF IS THAT? Same with Take Shelter, etc.
The Academy loves Oscar bait, that's why I believe Hooper/The King's Speech won last year. The King's Speech was a really good movie, but ultimately a made for cable film.
I thoroughly enjoyed The Artist (Ranked it #9 on my top 10 of 2011 list), but I do not believe it's the Best Picture. I only chose Hazanavicius as Best Director in "who will win" because the Best Picture and Best Director go hand in hand on most (all?) occassions.
I'm interested in seeing how your thoughts on Box Office #s will translate to this year's awards.
Because of how poorly all of the movies have done at the box office (The Help is the box office winner by a mile), I think this is a particularly hard year to pick. There are no "sexy" picks, unless you consider The Help to be a sexy pick. There wouldn't be a public outcry about it winning, because a lot of people saw it (I didn't), but I just really don't think it will happen.
Thinking about it now, I thought the last Potter book was good enough to get a Best Picture nomination if executed well. Unfortunately, David Yates evidently has no real emotional center, and ruined most of the best scenes in the book. Everything he did in the movies seemed so anti-climactic, to me. It was like a dead person directed those.
I think the "safest" big movie pick is Hugo, but that movie is also kind of a Hollywood wet dream. There were some definite cringeworthy moments, where I felt it was really talking down to the audience when explaining some of the history. It's made more money than a lot of the nominees made, and it proves that Scorsese isn't a sociopath...lol. The secondary pick I'd go for (also didn't see) is Midnight in Paris. I would be extraordinarily happy if The Artist wins for BP, but it's too huge of a risk for them. They'll get rewarded elsewhere. I also don't think BP/Director are as attached these days as you think. Generally, whoever wins the DGA Director Award is considered the frontrunner, and I think wins more often than not.