Originally Posted by MinusEV
Thanks - I see it's out on kindle, so I'll put it on my to-read-during-vacation-list
Depending on which Kindle you have you can used text to speech for Klein's books.
The best part about his decision model is it deals with uncertain situations. Klein clearly shows the difference between how skilled experts can make excellent intuitive decisions over non-experts and why. He uses the term expert which of course has fallen out of favor with Philip Tetlock's twenty-year study in which 284 experts in many fields, including government officials, professors, journalists, and other, and with many opinions, from Marxists to free-marketeers, were asked to make 28,000 predictions about the future, finding that they were only slightly more accurate than chance, and worse than basic computer algorithms.
Klein clearly that in certain fields like fighting fires which is cited often in his book experts do exist and out perform less experienced people. I like Tetlock's work but the problem with it just because experts don't predict well in very complex uncertain area's does not mean other experts don't perform better in other situations.
If you read the book let me know what you think.