Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
Hi Everyone:
I'm still reading and am now 57 percent through the book. And based on what I've read so far this is an excellent book.
However, here's a spot I disagree a little with. In the 3-bet chapter the author warns against 3-bet bluffing with too many hands because of "long term EV." The idea is that even if it's profitable to 3-bet in a particular spot with virtually every hand you shouldn't do it because even the weakest of opponents will adjust.
Well, this has to be wrong. If you think your opponent will adjust then only do it a small number of times. If you're not sure when he'll adjust, perhaps only do it once or twice. Why pass up on any available EV when an obviously exploitative strategy is available.
Best wishes,
Mason
If we're only going to do it a limited number of times then shouldn't those times be the times it's most plus EV for us to do so rather than the marginal times?
So let's say we have hands A,B,C,D which we want to either 3-bet or fold
A is worth +0.1BB to 3 bet compared to folding against a GTO player (or against our default player pool read)
B is -0.1BB
C is -0.3BB
D is -0.5BB
- so we only 3-bet hand A.
Now if villain folds too much, the EV of 3-betting all these hands can increase by 0.4BB, so we have
A +0.5BB,
B +0.3BB,
C +0.1BB and
D -0.1 BB
So obviously A remains a 3-bet and D remains a fold. If we are only going to get chance to do these exploitative 3-bets a few times before the player adjusts, then surely we'd rather do them with B, and pick up 0.3BB each time compared to our default strategy, rather than with a mix of B and C.
There is a second reason to do it with B not C, which is that under normal play while B is quite marginal whereas C would only be played that way exploitatively, so doing it with C tips off the villain that we are exploiting him in a way B doesn't and therefore cuts down the number of exploitations we can get away with before villain counter-adjusts (though this second reason assumes certain things about what villain knows and how he thinks).