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Old 11-27-2016, 08:01 PM   #226
ArtyMcFly
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

I agree with you. I'm not sure what range Peter is calling with pre-flop, but I would not be slowplaying sets or combo draws (e.g. 65hh/T9hh) on that turn card, so the river raise looks quite odd. Maybe his line makes sense in the context of his pre-flop strat, however.
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Old 12-09-2016, 06:26 PM   #227
a2kat
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

Hi! I'm started reading your book, but it is complicated for me. Coz I'm from Russia and eng not my native language. Are you planning to make a translation?
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Old 01-17-2017, 06:01 AM   #228
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

This is a great book. I'm nearly at the end now.

It has taken me a long time to get this far because I've constantly being putting it down and going away and working on ranges. In my case it's definitely made me start working on all the things which I previously used to ignore and hope I could get away with. Lots of "a-ha" moments. You really find yourself applying it at the table. For example how textures affect villain check-back ranges.

This is definitely applicable to tournament play, but you need to engage your brain and work out how to apply it. For example in a tournament with 40BB stacks, usually the 4-bet is all-in, so much of what Carroters says about 4-bets actually applies more to our 3-bets (being the last bet before villain might go all-in or fold and should rarely flat) but also some of the things he writes about 3-bets also applies to our 3-bets (in both cases being the first re-raise after the open). The last chapter, which I haven't read yet deals specifically with varying stack sizes, but what I want to say is that you can use the approach Carroters uses to working out how to play well in cash games to work out for yourself how to play well in tournaments.

As the twoplustwo forum is a pretty tough peer-review, and people like to find faults anwyay, - 480 pages in I've found a maths example for calculating balanced river ranges which could be made a lot simpler.

Quote:
How then do we create balance with respect to our bluff combos? We follow the balancing principle below.

...

Recall that RE describes the equity % of Villain's hand vs. Hero's range that will cause Villain to break even on a call in an end of action spot. It is his bare minimum equity for calling a bet from Hero.

In Hand 130 Hero's bet-size is a shove as the effective stack is small enough for shoving to be feasible and there is no reason to suppose any other bet-size will be better with Hero's range. Generally speaking, polarised ranges on the river want to bet big as this will generate a higher RE target and thus allow for more bluffs in Hero's range.
Hero bets 59BB into a pot of 82.5BB. What is Villain's RE?
RE = ATC / (ATC + TP)
RE = 59 / (59 + 141.5)
RE = 29.4%
Following the balancing principle, this means that 29.45% of Hero's river betting range should be a bluff. Since his betting range contains 16 value combos we can solve for his required bluffs (X).
X / (16 + X) = 0.294 (1)
X = 0.294 (16 + X) (2)
X = 0.294X + 4.704 (3)
(X - 0.294X) = 4.704
0.706X = 4.704
X = 4.704 / 0.706
X = 6.662
(1) We know that X will be 29.4% of Hero's total betting range. Hero's total betting range will be X + his
value combos (16 + X).
(2) Simplification: multiply both sides of the equation by (16 + X).
(3) Simplification: multiply both 16 and X by 0.294 to remove brackets.
For the algebraically shy, there are readily available algebra calculators online for such a job. Let's round this fractional answer up to the nearest whole number and conclude that Hero needs 7 bluff combos to create the 7:16 or 0.44:1 ratio of bluffs to value that satisfies the balancing principle.
This is all correct but there is a much quicker way to get this result if you use old school British-style odds instead of percentages. When we put money on a horse at 3 to 1 (US odds +300, decimal odds 4.00) the odds are fair (or we are indifferent to backing it) if it loses 3 times for every 1 time it wins.

Same in this case (a sportsbet being more equivalent to a "call" in poker), where villain is being asked to risk 59 BBs to win 141.5 BBs; for villain to be indifferent to making the call he needs to win 59 times for every 141.5 times he loses.

16 x 59 / 141.5 = 6.671 (the minor difference with one in the book is due to rounding the villain's required equity midway though the calculation).

So 7 bluff combos for our 16 value combos.
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Old 02-02-2017, 05:28 AM   #229
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth View Post
If you go back twenty years, when last to act, value bet usually meant that when your bet was called it was better than 50 percent to be the best hand but well under 100 percent. That is you're correctly betting a hand which many players would have been afraid to bet. But you're betting it because you know that when called it still has positive expectation even though it will often lose (when called).

But if first to act your value bet may not have positive expectation if called but it still has a higher expectation than a check would. That's because your opponent will call with some hands that would have been checked if you had checked. Notice that this is different than what you stated above.
can someone explain what he meant by this second paragraph here? This statement in particular your value bet may not have positive expectation if called but it still has a higher expectation than a check would.
correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the EV of checking always 0? How can you have a -ev vbet thats still higher ev than a check
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Old 02-02-2017, 09:24 AM   #230
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

Folding, or in this case open-mucking river, is usually counted as zero.

He doesn't mean betting as a strategy is negative ev, he means that your share of the bet+call element is less than 50 percent, so you lose on that bit but you also have a share of the dead money in the pot so you are still better than open mucking.

The situation he is talking about would be e.g. potsize bet left on the river, if villain always bets or calls with better hands, but there aren't quite enough of them for us to check-fold, then we are always getting stacked by better hands, so the exact number is insignificant. The question is just whether we'd rather get extra money against his bluffs or his bluff catchers that we beat I.e. which there are more of.

The number of better hands only starts to become significant if there are some we can save money against somehow because he will check behind or if there are so many (e.g. 7-3 ratio) that we can save money by check-folding. So you can see why a bet might be best even if we lose more often than not when called.

Mason prefers limit poker, I don't claim to know a lot about it but as the size of the pot on the river is often significantly larger than the possible bet size I imagine this situation comes up a lot.

Last edited by LektorAJ; 02-02-2017 at 09:33 AM.
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Old 02-06-2017, 09:45 AM   #231
Zrebna
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

Hello!

I hope the following questions will not come off in any way somewhat jerkish, but may I ask the author directly, if

a.) you still play actively online
b.) which sites and which limits do you play?
c.) are any SNs from you outed or would you mind to out some?

Other than this, have heard already some good reviews on your book and will most likely get it^^

Regards,
Zrebna
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Old 02-12-2017, 10:12 AM   #232
Solari
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

"Carroters" on PS anyway. He's been posting vids on DC recently at 50NL.
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Old 02-19-2017, 09:40 AM   #233
AguaPorFavor
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

I've the read the 50% of the book so far, and I have to say this book can and should be recommended for newbies as it is the best written material for today's NLHE out there.

TGM should be treated as a textbook for NLHE 101.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:06 PM   #234
4-Star General
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

Is the author still alive? He doesn't reply anymore
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Old 03-14-2017, 04:19 PM   #235
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

Quote:
Originally Posted by 4-Star General View Post
Is the author still alive? He doesn't reply anymore
I think he is working on a new book (according a video he made on 2C).
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Old 03-14-2017, 04:38 PM   #236
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Re: Review: Peter 'Carroters' Clarke - The Grinder's Manual

^ty
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