Book should be arriving tomorrow (ordered through Amazon), and I hope to read it over Spring Break (will be a nice diversion from reading case law and outlining for exams).

FTR the price difference with standard domestic shipping between amazon and us is less than $5 when they are on their max discount. Their price fluctuates for no apparent reason.

I got the book yesterday and I just arrived page 104.

There are three observations I want to make:

A. On p. 103 There is a DUCY question about world peace. I assume the answer is that people are fighting wars and sacrificing lives over issues that have a certain money value. I furthermore assume that David is basically indicating a strategy of appeasement. If Hitler wants Chechoslovakia, we give it to him, because a war costs us more than the fate of Chechoslovakia is worth to us. This is essentially ok, but it will encourage the opponent to ask for more. If you think that we can then just make a new independent decision, you are overlooking that these incidents are linked.

B. People should not trust their feelings, but can they trust their math? Children learn basic arithmetic in school, but they still make many mistakes in the tests. In other words, not all of them score a perfect 800. I give you an example from chess. If a good player is thinking for a long time over a move, the outcome is either a very strong move or a total lemmon. The deeper we analyze, the more likely we are to overlook something and to make a mistake. Humans simply make too many mistakes even if they know what they are doing.

Instincts are based on patterns and patterns are statistical samples. Trusting instincts on an issue we have experience with is like chosing the strategy that worked best over the long run in the past. Going with "instincts" on an issue that we have no experience with is the foolish mistake.

C. Something on Experto 21....
When I go to a casino and see a game that I can play against the house, I expect it to be a -EV right off the bat. My assumption is that no casino would be so dumb to offer a game where they take the worst of it. This is my basic "pattern". All of these "game-exploits", while certainly funny, are not really that impressive to me. The fox is not exceptionally intelligent, only because he can easily catch exceptionally stupid chicken. If things would go as they should, nobody would play Experto 21. In a perfect world, where the idiots get locked away so that they cannot harm themselves, the idea shouldn't produce a single $.

I never play such casino games and one may argue that I am missing out on the few occasions when a casino does make a mistake. The problem is that I don't trust myself in analyzing these game correctly. In many cases I don't know the methods how to do it and even if I know them, I may miscalculate. So in the end, in absence of better information, I have to go with my instinct and that is not to play.

Here is another one on p. 128. The recurring theme of the book is that those couples took the 60k instead of the chance for much more money.

The reason is the Bournoulli-Solution to the Petersburg-Paradoxon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Pet...utility_theory). For a guy who has nothing, making 1$ is a huge archievement. For a rich person, making the second million doesn't mean as much as making the first million, because he can still only eat one steak each day. In other words, having 60k secure was more important to those couples than having the chance to win much more while risking to end up with much less (the fact that it wasn't nothing doesn't really change the concept). It is the utility of money. Sure, you can exploit it, but it doesn't make the couples acting totally unreasonable. In this specific case they just couldn't accept the variance.

I agree smart people won't fall for experto 21

I agree that if you do not have expertise in analyzing something you might be better to trust your instincts.

My world peace remark was only semi serious and I didn't mean to imply what you thought.

And I'm glad to see some mildly negative comments. I was beginning to worry that Mason was paying off everybody.

Unless they were broke they took your concept (which I myself write about in the very next chapter) way too far. But the main reason I wrote about it was not to talk about them but rather to talk about a creative method to take advantage of proclivities such as theirs.

And this incident is NOT the recurring theme of the book. I want to make sure readers realize that.

Ok, I arrived at p. 130 and I must admit that I simply didn't expect you to give the reasons why these couples could have made the right decision just 2 pages after you used them as an example for flawed thinking. Maybe I should read the whole book before posting again

I wouldn't worry

Just got DUCY in the mail, I haven't been this excited to read something in a long while.
David Sklansky Rocks :-)

Well that's not exactly true.

2+2: Purchase price 19.96, Shipping 6.81...Total 26.77

Amazon: Purchase price 16.83, Shipping free (with >$25 purchase) total 16.83.

Like I said, $10 difference. However, I did notice that last night I sent the Amazon link to my buddy it was 16.83 and this morning it's 17.96 so Amazon has moved up the price in the last 12 hours, as you said with no apparent reason. And since it ships from Phx, if you live anywhere near Phx the free shipping takes 2-3 days.

Honestly, I didn't mind paying the extra $10 to help 2+2 etc but I'm just really disappointed with the effort that went into signing the book. Had a signed book not been offered I probably would have still paid extra to help 2+2, but since a I signed book was offered I certainly expected a little more. That's all.

I've already sent the link to about 20 friends so it's not a commentary on the book itself.

Well that's not exactly true.

You were not comparing apples to apples.

The shipping you quoted from us was Priority mail. We also offer less expensive media mail which is more equivalent in service level to their free delivery. Amazons free shipping is ground and you have to spend another 7-9 bucks to the the "free" shipping. Based only on the book purchase its less than a $5 difference when you pay for shipping on an under $25 order.

The fact is you chose to spend the extra $10 for added value of faster shipping, faster turnaround and the autograph, which I understand IYO has limited value.

David,

Just to say that I thoroughly enjoyed your book. I'm going to buy another one and give it to my Dad. The logic and creativity you apply to a variety of topics and subjects is incredibly eye opening and certainly will make me try to delve deeper in that type of thought process. Thank you very much.

A couple of questions, if you don't mind answering them:
In regards to university do you have any regrets on not completing your degree?
Given the forsight and experience you have aquired what would you do for a living or do different if you were an early 20 year old in todays enviroment?
You emphasise understanding and applying maths as a central theme in your book - do you have any suggestions to practice such concepts? Such as doing puzzles etc

Thanks again, Giles.

Thanks for the comments. An earlier poster said he was going to buy a second copy for his son. It's hard to top those two reviews.

Since many of my ideas and thoght processes developed not only because of my thinking talents and my father's teaching but also because I rejected the academic world for a far different one, I'm not sure how much I should regret not continuing my education.

There are many publications concentrating on puzzles and logic problems (see post 61). I think they are very helpful although I personally did not use them much.

How many buyins did you lose right before typing this?

Also, can you explain what is so wrong about the signature? I mean - it's the authors name written at the start of the book, no? I don't see how that can be disappointing or non-disappointing. Bad handwriting?

Any idea when it will be available on amazon.co.uk? Will it likely be by my birthday on 24th March? :P