So i am trying to figure out how often my 3bets (and 4bets) have to be successful to be profitable (I think). Using a formula I found online
amtlost/(amtwon+amtlost) = odds on a bet, therefore

I have XX in bb BTN raises 2.5bb SB calls 2.5bb pot is currently 6bbs
If raise another 9bb I will essentially be risking 9bb to win 6bb right?
9bb/(9bb+6bb) = oidds
9/15=odds
=0.6 or 60% of time to be BE?

Just really wanting to check in on these kind of mathematics so once I know for certain they are correct I can engrain them in memory so I know when playing.



Did find this article which kind of supports that equation I have but just wanted to double check in 2015
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...-help-1072672/

So when you get called, you have zero equity? It's a lot more complicated than your equation.

I'm the situation described above, if they fold 60% of the time then it is a break even 3!. This assumes you have 0% equity when called (X/f 100% of times when called. Never defending vs 4!) though so like mat said the real method of working it out is alot more complicated.

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Yeah forgot to write in the original assuming that fold is a win and call is a lose so 100% vs 0%

I obviously understand calculating with amtwon x %win -amtlossx%loss = ev

You are correct with the assumptions you put in. Now to get to a 60% success rate, both players have to fold to 3bet in these circumstances 78% of the time individually. If the button is raising 30% of the time in this situation, that means the button has to fold hands like ATs, AQo and 88 to the three bet. You're less worried about the SB because they aren't likely to be good, but they are likely to see the flop because they aren't good.

Keep also in mind that if you decide to do this a lot (which most beginners do), they're going to fold a lot less. In practical terms, if you decide to do this once in an 8-10 hour session, people won't pick up on it. If you've 3bet 5 times in the last 2 hours in the BB, they aren't going to believe you're running that good.

Yeah I play zoom, and the pool is overall nitty but blind wise people do 3bet alot wider hence why I was wondering. I do feel comfortable 4betting from CO/BTN to the blinds at times hence why I wanted to know this.

IE. CO raise 2.5bb sb calls bb raises 10bb pot is 15bb
SO if i 4bet to 24bb I risk 24bb to win 15bb 24/(24+15)=61%
Obviously zoom I dont have reads or samples sizes to ahve fold to 4bet or stuff like that but if I do get called I am IP and choose hands that do well against a 3bet 4bet flat range (Which I expect to be Strong Ax KQx 88-QQ QJs)

Is that a fair enough thought process?

Whenever you're bluffing with no equity, the equation is the same as always:
Fold equity required = Bet size / (Pot size + Bet size)

It's the same equation for when you open on the button, or when you're making a c-bet, with two blanks.

So like AQs open 15c utg sb folds bb calls pot is 32c
Flop 2s6dcTs I cbet 18c so I bet 18c/50c= 36% fold equity required

And im assuming your lesson with that post is when we are pure bluffing with little to no equity we will require a higher amount of fold equity whilst with straight outs (maybe even bd outs) I dont need as high a fold equity?
(or am I overleveling your post lol)

No, you're right. If you have some equity, you don't need villain(s) to fold as often, but the basic "airball" fold equity equation is the same as always.


The basic math is why Barry Greenstein used to c-bet 100% of the time. It's clearly profitable to bet at a high frequency with air when you expect a decent amount of folds. It's just not necessarily the most profitable line to take with some hands (which might do better by check-raising, check-calling or check-folding).

Mad dog thanks for that.

Ive been reading applications of nlh and one of the thing that janda writes about it is betting X everytime to balance for times you have it vs times you dont and in theory you should be +ev but that being said in situations where players arent being as GTO minded then it isnt worth doing that.

That being said after seeing that image I think ill be betting air with some equity more often now.