Both hands from same $600GTD tournament.

Payouts:
1st - $126.75
2nd - $92.76
3rd - $67.99
4th - $49.83
5th - $36.53
6th - $26.77

I actually ran the first hand with ICMizer and it said the shove was profitable, but it was my first time using it, and I kind of doubt the shove wasn't a mistake. At the time I called this I did so knowing that it's probably ICM suicide.

Hand 1

Reads: Cut-off is a crazy recreational player. Has open shoved 30+ blinds multiple times in middle positions and overbet jammed flops in small pots.

Blinds are winning regulars at the microstakes via Sharkscope.



Hand 2

Hand 2 is good for sure, since you are shoving CO in the late position.
Chance for your opponents to have 99+ is 2.71%. In oher words, 97.3% of the time each opponent won't have 99+
Now I don't know what's the cumulative total chance for them to have 99+

AKo is very good, if you have seen him jam a hand like AQo KQs pre. I think other wise AKo could even be a fold?
You'd have to get over 50% equity right?

Second one seems absolutely fine. First one looks OK given the reads/stacks/payouts

Well the good part in H1 is that you have the shortest stacks covered if you lose. Still you need to actually have quite an edge to be able to call this and if you are only flipping against his range then that's a problem.

The second one I didn't run but I can't see that not being profitable.

Second one looks pretty standard, so I didn't check it out.

For the first, CO should be jamming 19 or 20%. You can call with 99+/AJs+/AQo+, and I think the reason is that you'll either KO the guy and have a big stack, but if you lose you'll still have a workable stack and remain well ahead of the shorties.



To reduce variance, you could fold AJs and AQo, but I'd guess that anything that nets more than a dollar on average is too good to pass up.

Note that the ICM pressure means that the CO can jam around 20%, but none of the three people yet to act can call with more than 5% (edit: BB can call 12% if it's just the CO jamming). Fold equity is a thing. But AK is also a thing. If the CO had folded, you can push an incredible 65% of hands.