I am curious how ya'll would have played this...

Live 2/2 NL game....I had built my buy-in from $200 to $550. I was UTG and my hand was AQo. I bet $30 before the flop and three players called.

The flop was AQ8....rainbow, I think. I bet $80. One player called. Turn was a J. I bet $80 and the villain went all in with about $350, without hesitation.

This player had not been super aggressive all game and I figured he either had a set of J's or had A10 and hit the straight on the turn. I folded and he showed QJ. I had actually been ahead.

This was the first time (to my knowledge) I have ever folded a hand like that when faced with a huge bet where I was wrong to fold.

How would you all have played that? In my experience, when someone makes that kind of re-raise and show no fear whatsoever, they have the best hand. I obviously made the wrong call, but I wasn't about to call a $350 bet with top-two pair only. If I had a set, yes....but not 2-pair.

Thoughts?

ok. Ill tell you now that the first thing I thoguht when i was reading thorugh this was call. Shame you didnt. 15Bb is a MASSIVE raise. $80 into $120 with top two is great. pot is 380, you bet 80 ????? you should be betting like 300 here. when he shoves, call and pump your fist like a mad man. live players will do this kind of thing with top pair! were you playing with money you couldnt afford to lose?

Likewise. But I might have been subconsciously primed by the thread title

You'll often hear people say things like "just call, it's live". (And the rational poker thinker in you says "That's a terrible idea, why should I do that for no reason?")

Live players are bad, and the badness that usually manifests itself in live players is betting for the wrong reason. If you were playing a thinking player online you might think he is betting light -- he is either betting the nuts for value or (semi)bluffing. Inexperienced live players tend to bet wide -- he is either betting the nuts, or just a good hand. Their logic is "I have a good hand so I should get lots of money in the middle". They don't realize that when they take an aggressive action with the bottom of their range that it is very hard for a hand they beat to call.

Another mistake that bad players tend to make is getting scared when a draw hits, and reacting to this fear the completely horribly wrong way by bluffing into it.

I would expect an unremarkable live villain to take this line with as wide a range as TPTK+, which top 2 is well ahead of.

Next time you play live see how often you spot those two tendencies.

Well, I had lost a lot of money playing recently and just figured, ok I call this and I'm dead and down to like $100 or something. In my experience, calling that big of a raise/re-raise USUALLY spells disaster. Usually, that means you're beaten. Occasionally, I will see someone at a live game make that kind of bluff when they're afraid of a flush draw on the board or something but this just seemed like too many possibilities of how I could lose. When the J hit and he went all in, I was convinced he hit his straight.

I think you're right. Sometimes I give live players TOO much credit for how they play and their decisions. When the J hit and he went all in with $350, I figured- ok, he either has a set of J's or hit the straight. In my experience playing live games, even the wildest maniacs don't make a $350 bet unless they have hit something very big. I mean, making that kind of bet to me showed no fear on his part. Why was he not afraid of a higher two pair? I just don't get it.

I guess I gave this player too much credit. Usually, when you feel like you're beaten, that gut instinct is correct.

And yes, I probably should have committed more money after the turn to my bet....$80 into a $380 pot with top 2-pair is way too little.

I guess I'll try to make the right play next time and move on....and learn from this.

Wouldn't a "super aggressive" player 3bet you preflop with JJ? But even if he didn't - You think he calls flop with JJ vs AQ8 flop?

AT doesn't make a straight, btw, only KT does. Again, you think he's calling with just a gutshot on the flop? (Not that live donks don't chase anything, but, aggro players not so much. And if he did chase the gutshot, get it in on the turn and pay him his monies. You'll make it back and more in the long run.)

Unless the purpose of your turn bet was to goad him into shoving (you need to call), it's really terrible.

Because of your ridiculous turn bet!

Your turn bet says, "Please don't call me, I'm scared and I want to fold". He read you perfectly and outplayed you.

I wasn't scared at all, at that point. I was totally stunned when he went all in. With 2-pair, I'm not going all in, just because of the outside chance he might have me beaten (set of J's, pocket Q's, pocket A's, K10). It's not all that unlikely he would have me beaten at that point after the turn....any of those 4 hands would have done it. If I had had a set? Yes, obviously, I'm going all-in or betting bigger....but not with 2-pair. A bet of $80 (as underplayed as it was) should have been enough for most anyone to fold....unless he was pot committed, on tilt, or just chasing at that point. I figured it wasn't any of those, so I figured he hit a bigger hand than mine at that point. I looked at his stack and if he only had $100-150, I might have put him all in but not $350. As someone else has mentioned, a bet of $80 was too weak but I figured it would be enough for him to fold and tell him that I was still ahead.

And yes, I meant I figured he had K10, not A10....my typo.

I think where I DID go wrong is not betting more after the flop.

I missed this in my response. My point is he WASN'T playing super aggressively, so the fact that he went all in with $350 lead me to believe he definitely had a set of J's or hit his straight. If he had been playing wildly or super aggressively all the time, I would have called him immediately, thinking he was probably chasing again or overvaluing top pair.

Your mistake here was betting too small on the turn. Why would you make the same bet twice? That can induce so many weird results it's not even worth thinking about. Had you bet $200 or so then you would be priced in to call his shove and be pleasantly surprised with the outcome. Dont bet weird nonsensical amounts of money like a fish does, especially when the board starts getting drawy.

Truth be told your read was right, he DID have a big hand in his eyes. And thats the key, determining what a fish considers the nuts. Their ranges are pretty wide and include all 2 pair combo's, even something as random as J8o, and hands that beat you. Personally I wouldnt be surprised to see him turn over KT/9T/JJ. But again I would have auto-called due to pot commitment.

From now on keep track of the pot size, and bet 3/4 of the pot or so.

This is called "scared money", also "monsters under the bed".

If he's willing to call your flop bet with JJ or KT then his range is incredibly weighted towards hands you crush. If he actually has one of the few hands that beat you then fair enough. But mostly he has hands like A4 or QJ.

No, flop was fine. Where you went wrong was on the turn.

Sorry, misread your post.

This is very good advice and I definitely need to pay more attention to the pot size, as this is obviously crucial. I sometimes tend to get so "locked in" on my own hand that I overlook important details like that. Making the appropriate bet would have helped simplify things a lot for me (plus made it expensive for him if he was indeed chasing a straight or whatever). It also would have probably gotten him thinking more about his own hand and starting to doubt it. You're right....if I had bet $200 instead of the silly $80, it would have made calling his shove pretty much automatic and I would have gotten up and gone, with a $800 profit on the night. Especially with the board starting to look very ugly with all the high cards. And, don't forget....there was still a river card to come. Who knows what that would have produced!

My only question is this....since the J came on the turn, wouldn't that make you at least a LITTLE nervous about risking 3/4 of the pot at that point? I mean, with that J showing up, certainly some doubt has to creep in, no?

Agreed. As the previous poster stated, the amount was wrong...based on how much $$ was in the pot. And I suppose you're right....when the J came up, I probably flinched a little bit...hoping against hope that he didn't hit the straight, etc. Honestly, if that turn is a 4, I'm probably betting a lot more than $80. But either way, I see now that I made a mistake.

I don't understand why you haven't once mentioned the only plausible hand that beats you here: pocket 8s. There's just no way anyone but a complete idiot is calling you on the flop with JJ or KT if you make a big bet into 3 people. If it were heads up, sure, you might get a light call, but when someone bets into 3 people who all called a big raise preflop, that action looks very strong. Anyone calling you there with a gutshot is likely to pass out drunk before the river is dealt anyway.

Since your opponent woke up when the J hit, and appears to think he has a very strong hand, I'd think he has AJ, QJ or 88 here most of the time. With any two pair hand he's beating plausible hands you could have like AK, KK or AT, hands which have outs that he might want to fold out, so it shouldn't be surprising to see him turn over AJ or QJ after he shoves. Especially after you underrepresent your hand on the turn with your tiny bet, you're more or less obligated to call the shove, since you beat most of the hands he can reasonably have.

OR the money you lost previously is irrelevant and if he has a set or a straight, you have redraws to the nut full house..

scared money.

bet more on the turn.

/thread

What was the turn bet trying to accomplish? Whenever you make a bet it has to serve 1 of two purposes (3 if you are balancing part of your range): 1) make a better hand fold or 2) make a worse hand call. No better hand is folding here ever regardless of how much you bet. Many worse hands will call far more than $80. So the decision on the turn is either bet more for value or check to induce a bluff (which you MUST call and will be pot committed after the call). On the turn no matter how the action goes down you are pot committed - the pot is already big and you are out of position so trying to excercise pot control is a pointless excercise. Pre flop and flop are fine, it is the turn where the wheels came off (as everyone else has poitned out).