Hello guys is there an analysis for multiway 3b pots setmining?

Example: UTG opens, I call in MP w77 SB 3 bets UTG calls, Hero ???

Set mining is profitable when the implied odds are big enough to be +EV even taking into account all the times you don't get paid off when you hit..I've heard people say you need 15:1. If, after the 3-bet you still have odds of 15+:1 then continue on.

Agree with 15 to 1. Its about 8 to 1 to hit the set on the flop but hitting it is half the battle. You have to factor in how often the opponent will have a hand big enough to pay you. That doesn't happen very often.

It's also much better when you have position and you should consider folding the very small pairs when deep stacked because they can more easily be oversetted in multiway pots.

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I developed an implied odds model which replaces the equity variable in the EV equation with Pr(hit outs)*Pr(win|hit outs). This allows one to include reverse implied odds in the analysis. I applied it to a set mining situation with hero holding a pair of sixes against 3 opponents with ranges of 20% to 40%. It turns out that this results in about a 75% win probability if hero hits a 6 on the flop.


From this little exercise, with a 75% win probability if hero hits the set, and a villain always calls hero’s bet, the required future bet translates to implied pot odds of 12.7 to 1. Therefore, the 15 to 1 convention for low/middle pair implied odds may not be unreasonable since my assumptions are likely to be optimistic.

So in the case below under the assumption I get one of the two stacks all in when I hit the set I am getting good enough odds, as I need to get the pot to be at least 28.57$? (2.25$ * 12.7=28.57$ pot) Is this correct math?

partypoker - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 102.48 BB
UTG+1: 98.76 BB
MP: 157.44 BB
Hero (MP+1): 100 BB
MP+2: 172.04 BB
CO: 90.8 BB
BTN: 106.36 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 151.44 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7 7

fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 9 BB, Hero ?

You are calling 6bb into 21bb min with 90bb each behind 2 players. 90/6 is 15 ... So you are getting 18.5 to 1 if you can get at least 1 stack to call off/shove.

The big component to this type of set mine is getting paid off and how often will you be able to steal/win the pot otherwise. At 18.5 to 1 the math looks pretty good but in a 3-bet pot you would probably assume that there are other pp out there and the possibility of losing might be somewhat greater than 'normal' limp/flat 1st raise spots.

In this pot here you will be 'in the middle' unless you can get the B to fold on the Flop. This may lesson your ability to go after the pot if you whiff and choose to continue/peel.

Like I said, the math is 'ok' here. But as a live player there are plenty of times when I just fold here since I know that 'a lot' of times I show aggression I wont get the full reward for the risk from those players involved. GL

No- the pot in my model is the amount before last villain bet, which, in your example is 19.4 and the last bet would be 9 so you have to invest an additional 9 to stay in.

If you assume only one caller if you bet after hitting a set on the flop and villain’s range is top 15%-20%, your win probability is approximately 85%. According to the model, you need to make a future bet of about 62 or more for +EV assuming an 85% win probability. Since both villains’ stacks exceed this you have the needed implied odds (10 to 1 in this case) and a call is +EV.

I see thank you, could you post a screen shot/ PM me, of that model so I can work out different scenarios on my own?

I sent you a PM noting I'm drafting an article on it.

The 77 in MP1 is just a fold to the original 3x open. I think you need 88 or even 99 to flat in that spot, as getting overcalled is bad, getting squeezed is terrible, and getting 4-bet is horrendous.
Stop trying to set-mine when you're nowhere near to closing the action.

Even if 3 bets are rare part of table dynamics? I feel my biggest concern with set mining should be avoiding 3bets, of couse position helps to extract value but I'm also pretty fine if someone calls behind me as it's usualy the EP who will be doing the barreling if he has a big pair or hits TPTK.

Even if squeezes are rare, getting overcalled is pretty bad, because smaller pairs don't do so well multiway. If you call with a decent pocket pair like JJ-99, then it's fine if someone overcalls with 77/66, because you're crushing them. But if you call with 77/66, then it's a disaster if someone overcalls with TT/99 (or any two overcards), because you become the player that's least likely to win. (e.g. If UTG opens AK, you flat 77 and BTN calls JTs, you have the "best" starting hand, but the lowest amount of equity, with just 31%.) You're also in the worst relative position, as you'll be acting straight after the PFR, so unless you flop a set, you have to fold on almost every flop.

Yeah I see, thank you. Just for information in which position do you start calling with 22-77 facing EP open?

CO or BTN for 77, BTN/SB for 66/55. I don't call with 44-22 outside of the BB, the only position where you can close the action and be heads up. (Also cheaper pot odds in BB).
If your opponents are particularly bad, all pairs should just about make money on the button, but I nearly always fold 55-22. I hate small pairs with a passion, possibly because I used to get over-setted for stacks pretty often before I learned to fold pre.