depends on the unique situation, but poker is so interesting because of the complexities.
Notice I said,
Quote:
if bluffing would not have been worthwhile.
This situation that you have described is even more complex because some % of the time you are ahead and some percentage of the time you are behind but have a lot of outs. (Semi-bluffing)
You'd have to make some kind of tree to analyze the possibilities and calculate the average EV of all the trees for both possible lines:
(1) semi-bluffing the turn and playing the hand from there
(2) then compare that to checking behind on the turn and playing the hand from there
It might be worth creating an Excel spreadsheet!
Currently Ahead
- both miss river (What % will this happen and How much will you make on average?)
- you hit river (What % will this happen and How much will you make on average?)
- he hits river (What % will this happen and How much will you lose on average?)
Currently Behind
- you hit river (What % will this happen and How much will you make on average?)
- you miss river (What % will this happen and How much will you lose on average?)
I suspect you will be right that betting will be most profitable but would love to know what you come up with.